A few weeks ago there was a post that talked about the myth of SEC speed, and the larger issue of player quality among the different US regions. I don't know that I agreed with the article linked in that post, but it did bring up some interesting points. When I reviewed the Rivals250 watch list for 2012 , I had this in mind and began analyzing player location. Of course I didn't come up with anything other than very crude conclusions re. that particular issue, but I did find the exercise more generally informative about recruiting as a whole. I'll present it here, with the understanding that many similar analyses have likely been completed in the past, and those much better in findings and scope.
First up - where do they come from? Well, that's Texas, Florida, and California, and you knew that. The top 15 states in terms of the most R250 players:
- TX, FL, CA, GA, and LA together hold nearly half of the preliminary 250, with 124 athletes
- The Top 15 states, which you'll notice includes MI, hold 82% of the R250
- There are 34 states represented by the R250, and 19 of them have 5 or fewer players
- 16 states are not represented at all. Many of those are smaller states or Alaska, but some surprises: Kansas, West Virginia, Connecticut, and our new B1G member Nebraska have no players in the R250
- Iowa, Oregon, and Wisconsin each have 1 player
- Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Indiana (home of ND, Purdue, and IU) have 2 players
- New York also has only 2 players - it's hardly the empire state for football, despite having an enormous population. There are probably answers to those player quality questions here, which likely involve player development and the popularity of football in the area. But this is just speculation.
In terms of which conference the players belong to, I made some crude assumptions: players play at home, and states are split according to popular custom. Re. the latter, the example would be MI and OH are 100% B1G states, but PA is 2/3 B1G and 1/3 BEAST (for Penn State and Pitt respectively). FLA is 2/3 ACC and 1/3 SEC, to recognize MYTM, FSU, and UF. Yes it's simplistic. It's also hard to do it any other way.
|*B1G = 15% of total|
So yes the SEC RULZ. They get there by taking 1/3 of FLA (11 players), and all of GA (15), LA (10), and AL (8). The PAC10 comes in second by virture of CA, AZ, and WA. ACC is third? That's what 2/3 of FLA, plus MD (and their 4 OLGC players) and NC will get you. B1G is fourth, more in a bit. B12 is fifth, made up almost entirely of 2/3 of TX (the other 1/3 went to OTHER), plus 3 kids from MO and 2 from OK. The B12 is Texas in every way it can be anything. BEAST is hopeless, but that's a pretty good abbreviation eh?
The B1G is made up of OH, PA, IL, and MI. Michigan isn't in a terrible position, but with B1G regions making up just 15% of the total, needs to be in FL, TX, and CA to be a national power. ND has nothing in IN and does just fine.
What about the position breadowns?
Not sure how this compares to previous years, but the good news is that there are 39 OL and 36 WRs - two positions of need next year. DEs are also very deep - OH has six alone (and that doesn't include Pharaoh Brown or Odenigbo). But also very few DTs or TEs. MI has only one of either, and unfortunately O'Brien looks to be vexed by the orange sun and questionable head coaching strategies of UT. OH has neither a DT nor TE, and only one each of LB, OL, and DB. We'd like to keep all of the MI guys who represent, yo:
|Kelby Latta||OL||Battle Creek, MIHarper Creek|
|Danny O'Brien||DT||Flint, MIPowers Catholic|
|Royce Jenkins-Stone||LB||Detroit, MICass Tech|
|James Ross||LB||Orchard Lake, MISt. Mary's|
|Efe Scott-Emuakpor||WR||East Lansing, MIEast Lansing|
|Terry Richardson||DB||Detroit, MICass Tech|
|*128 <200s (51%)|
- 86% of the R250 are 6'0" or taller - marry a big girl
- 51% of the R250 are in the 200s or lighter, surprisingly - it's OK to marry a thin girl
- Want a 300+ pounder? There are only 17 in the country right now (though they may grow over the year): 11 OL and 6 DTs - not enough of you are marrying big enough girls
No grand conclusions, but some interesting info. I haz spreadsheet, so questions are welcome. The data at Rivals is easy to copy and paste into Excel. I'll probably update this when it changes from watch list to the actual R250. Go Blue and that is all
Sorry I know there are several other threads, but given our junkie nature I thought many would still want to see. Plus I disagree w/ some of the other scrimmage updates. Pardon any spelling errors, have to post this and get to work
- Nothing original on Denard: looks comfortable, made some nice throws, seems in charge of the O. Wouldn't want to have to tackle him
- It doesn't look like they have any intention of redshirting DG. Looked great, made one very poor decision. He can't have the O down yet, can he?
- Tate ran with the 3's, but later with the 1's and 2's. He has the best touch of the three, though the least zip. Still feel most comfortable with him at the helm, though Denard did nothing to lessen my confidence in him. Tate did NOT overthrow any fades: on 3 pass plays from the 2 yard line, he threw the ball away (the one running play was stuffed). Great because 1) this was the first string D, and they had everyone covered, 2) Tate did not try to shoehorn the ball in. He's taking care of the ball. Rejoice. He had one classic improvised TD pass where he motioned the receiver over, and the lone long pass of the scrimmage was on the money. The receiver dropped it / pass interference.
- Unfortunately, it still looks to me like none of the 3 are naturals at the zone read.
- At the end of the scrimmage, RR has them run laps around the field. Denard first every time by a wide margin. Tate working hard, but last nearly every time (sometimes getting in front of DG). In an offense when the QB is expected to run, this explains the wings thing. Denard is in outstanding shape.
RB's - Also differ here, I didn't think Hopkins looked as great as everyone else did. Not a diss (dis? sp?) on his play - he ran very hard - but I didn't see the world beater others did. Much like the other scrimmages, all the RBs looked good, but none really stood out. We have options in Cox and Shaw. Though V. Smith, as reported, looks great - no noticeable effects from the injury.
Yes, Kelvin Grady everywhere. He looks calm, matter-of-fact and natural. WTF after being nearly invisible in the spring. We have lots and lots and lots of slots
Huyge and D'stein are your starting tackles at the moment. And I'm fine with that. Omameh is gd beast, and Schilling looks all-conference.
Defense: They look more smash-mouth in the Front 7. Moundros starts in the middle, looks like he's been playing there for a while. A run stuffer certainly. Middle zone coverage? Not enough data. Ezeh also stuffed the run and took on blocks at Mouton's spot. Roh will be a beast, but given almost all of the throws were short, his pass rush didn't have time to get home.
Vlad will hit you, but we all knew that. Cam Gordon is going to be very good, I think. Big boy. He was in position to make two great tackles, but unfortunately didn't wrapup and was pulled off the field. Later returned with the 1's. Going to take some time
JT Floyd looks good, Rogers looks big. Teric Jones and Christian are your 2's. Talbott and Avery don't look undersized, and don't look overwhelmed. Again, hard to judge corner play given the nature of the throws. But Christian has a way of moving that reminds one of Woodson. He moves like he knows he's good. I think Marvin Robinson will be helping the team very soon.
We look Bend But Don't Break, which we all knew, and we'll have to be at least early
Field goals looked a bit worse than average. Hagerup boomed one, short-legged two
Based on pathetically little evidence: It did appear that Big Will was running with the 3's, but he also looks very tough to block. Don't know if he's turned the corner to actually making plays yet. Davion Rogers is skinnier than you imagine. Open that time capsule up in 2011 at least if you're hoping to see him play. Jake Ryan looks like a good MLB at some point. Josh Furman passes the eyeball test. Didn't see Carvin Johnson on the field, and was looking for him (may have been banged up). Noticed a #67 jersery (Nathan Brink?) more often than I noticed LaLota in the second and third teams. Shook RR's hand, seems like a good man.
Overall, O looks great and D not bad. I am beyond excited for this season.