Blazefire

A recurring theme I've heard put forward over the past month or two is that this is THE year for Michigan basketball. Go for broke, because after this year, Burke leaves, THJ leaves, and even Little Dog may leave. Beilein has pulled out the redshirts this year because it is a year to win it all.

I don't disagree that it is a year to win it all for Michigan basketball, and it's worth putting everything into it. However, I'm wondering if it's true that this is THE year. In that spirit, I thought we could take an early look at 2013 Michigan basketball and what the odds are that next year could be "The Year" too.

First off, lets set a prospective depth chart for 2013. This depth chart will assume that we lose the following players for 2013:

That makes our returning curren depth chart as follows:

To these players, Michigan is adding the following freshmen for 2013 (others may be added, but these are sure things):

Ed: No Hatch. He reclassified. Blame Bourbon

This Gives us a 2013 depth chart that looks something like the following:

First of all, lets just come out and say it. That's a damn good depth chart. A little light, but damn good. At any rate, to figure out where we're at for 2013, we should look at lost production and minutes first. Per ESPN:

I am going to discount the top five guys in that list because all put together they average less than 18 minutes per game. That's garbage time that you fill with those guys to reduce the chance of injury to your starters and primary backups and so that they get a chance to play.

PG - 33.7 MPG, 17.8 PPG, 7.2 APG

SG - 33.7 MPG, 16.2 PPG, 2.6 APG

F - 32.2 MPG, 12.1 PPG, 1.3 APG

I know that doesn't cover everything these guys are doing for the team, or even close to it. But if similar production can be put up, it can be assumed that production in other areas, defense, rebounding and general intangibles will be close.

The question is, between the improvement of Freshmen to Sophomore players and the addition of high rated freshemen, do we have it? There is no good math for just how players will perform when their minutes skyrocket (Spike?) or how freshmen will perform (Irvin?), because it varies so much. Therefore, I ask you. Do we have it?

The end of Denard Robinson's Michigan Football career leaves us to ask many important questions into what his time here meant, in so many different ways. We can ask wherre his stats rank among all time greats. We can ask if he will ever be equalled. We can ask about intangibles and what he meant to the program. But I intend to answer a much more lasting question. How hot is Denard Robinson?

Yes, everybody wants a piece of Denard, and who could blame them? But that's not good enough. Below, you will find a scientific inquiry into the actual heat of one Denard Robinson.

In order to answer this question, we must establish a few points. First, Mirriam-Webster defines a calorie as such:

a : the amount of heat required at a pressure of one atmosphere to raise the temperature of one gram of water one degree Celsius

Two (Wikipedia):

Blood is approximately 92% Water by volume.

Your heart volume is approximately 280cm3, or .28 liters.

Therefore, your heart contains approximately .2576 liters of water, or 257.6 grams.

According to super-reputable web sources (http://www.nutristrategy.com/activitylist3.htm), a 180lbs man burns the following number of calories while running.

As you can see, Calories do not increase per distance as speed increases, giving us an average of approximately 135.5 Calories per mile or .026 calories per foot (.077 Calories per yard)

Denard Robinson's Carreer rushing stats, as retrieved from ESPN.com:

Add in about 1000 lateral yards and Denard Robinson finishes with a total of 5495 yards run inside gameday football stadiums.

A quick bit of math at .077 cals/yard X 5495 yards = 4231.15

4231.15 / the 257.6 grams of blood in your heart = 16.425 degrees celcius or 61.565 farenheit. Added to regular body temperature of 98.6? 160.165.

The American Burn Association has this to say:

How hot is Denard Robinson? He makes your heart burn, baby. He makes your heart burn.

EDIT: My late night, drunk-ass math skills fail me. I'm sorry to say this, but Denard does not make your heart burn. He only warms it.

5495 yrd x .077 cals per yard = 423.15 cals/257.6 grams of water = 1.64 degrees celcius, or just enough to send you to bed with feverish sweats. Somehow... that seems hotter to me.

[Ed-S: Bumped to Diary. Plus this man!]

So, Brian quit charting UMass before we even got to the 4th quarter, where one big time recruit Justice Hayes got the first carries of his Michigan career. I don't think enough attention has been paid to those carries, be they with backups in the game or not. A guy's first carries in Michigan Stadium deserve a little review, so I thought I'd try to UFR some of his plays

I don't have a full game video, only highlights, so I don't have all the information, but I can do a simple review. Unfortunately, the highlights only have two plays with him in it. If others have better insight, please share it. I'm very much an amature.

Play 1

Set: Angle too tight, but it looks like a Shotgun Split, with Bellomy, Gyarmati and Hayes all pretty much on the same line, 3 Wide.

Play: Zone Read? Not sure if this is actual read or not, but while the others appear to be run blocking, Gunderson looks like he went to a pass block, so maybe?

Player: Bellomy

Result: 9 yards

Players: Mateus - Burzynski - Miller - Glasgow - Gunderson

                               Gyarmati - Bellomy - Hayes

Glasgow pulls at the snap, taking off playside. Gunderson's man takes a wide circle around him, and Gunderson seems momentarily confused about who to block, first looking towards center, then back outside. He eventually gets in the way of the SDE who wasn't going to get to the mesh point in time anyway. Miller(+1) gets into his man and shoves him off the line, while Mateus (+1) and Burzynski(+1) double the other DT and take him well out of the play. Glasgow has pulled quickly (+1), while he, Gyarmati, Hayes AND Bellomy all take off playside.

The WDE crashes, but then squares up to take a block from Glasgow, who angles past him. He then turns to deal with a block from Gyarmati, who is headed behind him. Finally, he looks towards the Bellomy-Hayes mesh, his indecision making it impossible for him to get either. he chooses the wrong guy anyway. (-1, that guy. If you're gonna go with a guy, get there fast. If you're gonna hesitate, at least pick the right guy).

Bellomy sells it on the hand off, and Hayes follows Gyarmati behind the WDE while Bellomy follows Glasgow inside. I love how hard Hayes sells this, and the whole play side of the field follows him out. Beautiful fake. I'll +1 him on it.

Gyarmati gets out on the LB (I think. Can't see it, but he's got a block on someone), Miller loses his man but delayed him juuuust long enough, and Mateus & Bryant have crushed their donkey so hard that 5 yards upfield, Glasgow is still looking for someone to block. Bellomy hits a big time hole (+1). Glasgow finally finds a WLB to block, and the SLB and Safety combine to bring down Bellomy at the one.

- Seems like everybody did their jobs here, though I'd like to see Gunderson be more decisive. Not sure if it was the combo  block that delayed the LB's, having to go out around it, or an RPS with them dropping to pass coverage. Curse you, highlight angles!

Play 2

Set: I-form, 2 TE Set.

Play: MANBALL

Player: Hayes

Result: 1 Yard, TD

Players: Same as before, with Kwiatkowski and Paskorz in at TE.

Solid blocking all along the line. Kwiatkowski, Burzynski and Glasgow get no push. Burzynski, Glasgow, Mateus/Paskorz and Kwiatkowski get linemen while Miller, Gunderson and Gyarmati get LB's. Miller(+1) and Gunderson(+1) have both gotten fantastic blocks, which is a shame, because Burzynski(-1) and Glasgow(-1) allow their men to roll together and completely fill what should be a massive middle hole while a safety fills the left side hole. This play was going right, so it's not a big deal, but this is goal line. EVERYBODY should go backwards into the endzone.

Gyarmati (+2) gets out on his LB and brings a safety along with him(!) and a sizeable hole opens right that Hayes hits with authority.  The safety and guard both get a hand on Hayes, but not till after he's crossed the plane. Touchdown!

Anything to add?

As many of you know, for the last two years, I've done "A Song for the Season" about a month before CFB season begins. I try to capture a feeling for the off-season and what we can expect in the coming season. Two years ago, it was "This'll be the day that we try", as we struggled to overcome the letdowsn of 2008 and 2009. Last year,  things were looking so far up, so I brought to you "Michigan, Guaranteed!"

This season it seems to me that no matter what any team does, we're not going to be getting out from under the pall of PSU reporting any time soon. It's almost farcical or erethral how much it permeates everything. Towards that end, I bring you, "The Game of College Football", to the tune of "Hotel California".

_________________

With an off-season gone by,
bad news on the tube.
Stories of misdeeds and mistrust,
homages paid to soon.
Far off in the future,
I saw a shimmering sign.
As my head grew heavy and my soul grew weak,
I thought it looked just fine.
I had reached the new season,
there it stood before me.
But the foul news still came up like before!
Will we ever be free?
Then came opening night,
a game with full fanfare.
Maybe we had passed it yet,
then the announcer declared…

Welcome to the new era of college football.
Such a lovely game
Such a crying shame
Plenty of news in the game of college football.
Can’t escape the bad
Don’t it make you mad!

The games now Gerry-tainted.
Can’t stop the Sandusky screams.
Full of lots of ugly crimes, a snake in the weeds.
People that don’t know the game now,
they come to make threats.
Some scream for bloody revenge, they haven’t stopped yet!

So I dialed up the Victors
“Please bring me good news.”
They said, “We could win the Championship and not escape these blues!”
And still those voices are calling from the TV.
Turn on Sports Center looking for sports news,
But instead all you see…

Welcome to the new era of college football.
Such a lovely game
Such a crying shame
Plenty of news in the game of college football.
Can’t escape the bad
Don’t it make you mad!

Seems not a single story
can get clear of PSU.
They said, “We’re finished for a decade,
aren’t you glad it’s not you?!”
And still the press gathers in the darkness,
not done with their feast.
Oh they hash it and rehash it still,
but the stories just keep getting released!

If we look to the future,
we can see clear air once more.
We hope our sport finds its way back
to the place we loved before.
“Oh no” says the TV, in yet another attack.
“You can clean up everything again,
but you can never go back!”

This isn't exactly an exhaustively researched report, but there has been nothing in the diaries lately, and I thought I'd bring up a foreboding bit of Michigan history for you all. As we prepare to enter the 2012 season, I got just a minor sense of foreboding thinking of a few parallels to another well known season.

The year is 2006. Michigan football rebounds from an extremely disappointing 7-5 2005 campaign that sees losses to OSU and the bowl game to have a breakout year. The juniors on the team finally seem to gel completely and Michigan storms to an 11-2 record, including playing one of the most epic games in one of the most storied rivalries ever.

The following season, the pundits say, if there were ever a Michigan team that was primed to make a big run, it was the 2007 Wolverines. A truly gifted senior QB entering his 4th year of starting, who looks poised to make that leap to true stardom. A lockdown left tackle clearly produced by the NFL's most crack genetic engineers. A tailback that had emerged from a rash of injuries the previous season to prove a star, and a defense that had lost a few pieces but had improved so vastly from the seaon before that an upward trajectory could only be expected to continue.

Of course, we all know how that went.

Consider the 2011 Wolverines. Fresh off an extremely disappointing 7-5 campaign that sees losses to OSU and in the bowl game, the Wolverines put together a breakout year. The team seems to gel and Michigan storms to an 11-2 season including playing in one of the most epic games in one of the most storied rivalries ever.

For the 2012 season, Michigan will feature a truly gifted senior QB entering his 4th year of starting. He seems primed to make the leap from extremely talented to true stardom. Michigan features a lockdown left tackle seemingly produced by the NFL's most crack genetic engineers. We even have a tailback that emerged from a rash of injuries last season to prove a star, and a defense that made a stratospheric leap that bodes extremely well for the future.

Now, I'm not saying that Michigan 2012 is Michigan 2007. These teams are extremely different. But, it is the middle of the off season, and with Hoke heading things up, it's all sunshine and lollipops. What fun is that? Maybe it's good to be a little scared?

What if a man suddenly shut down in the line of duty awoke to a world unlike what he had known before? What if a football coach, coming off a great year and intense spring practices suddenly entered a world of true football dead season. Practices? Not allowed. Recruiting class? Done. Can it be true? Has the entire college football world gone dead? Is there any hope or escape from this seemingly endless nightmare?

In the coming months, we shall find out if, for coach Brady Hoke, there is any escape from...

If... you know, I get off my lazy ass and actually do it.