Big Ten Tournament Seeding Percentages

Submitted by U of M in TX on

This diary is based on all the possible outcomes to the last six Big Ten basketball games and how the outcomes affect the tournament seeding.  I went through all 64 possible combinations and weighted each outcome based on the percentages that kenpom.com had projected for each game.  Here are some of the results:

 Most Likely Outcome for Seeding:

 

1

Ohio State

2

Purdue

3

Wisconsin

4

Illinois

5

Michigan

6

Michigan State

7

Penn State

8

Minnesota

9

Northwestern

10

Iowa

11

Indiana



This outcome has a 24.9% likelihood  of occurring.

Least Likely Outcome for Seeding:

 

1

Ohio State

2

Wisconsin

3

Purdue

4

Michigan State

5

Penn State

6

Illinois

7

Michigan

8

Northwestern

9

Minnesota

10

Iowa

11

Indiana



This outcome has a 0.04% likelihood of occurring.

Here is the list of each team with their probabilities of seeding.  The order is based on the most likely outcome listed above:

 

Ohio State

1

82.15%

2

17.85%

 

 

Purdue

1

17.85%

2

79.66%

3

2.49%

 

 

Wisconsin

2

2.49%

3

97.51%

 

 

Illinois

4

38.03%

5

51.16%

6

7.76%

7

3.05%

 

 

Michigan

4

27.97%

5

38.03%

6

22.78%

7

11.22%

 

 

Michigan State

4

34.00%

5

6.19%

6

41.08%

7

18.73%

 

 

Penn State

5

4.62%

6

28.38%

7

67.00%

 

 

Minnesota

8

67.00%

9

33.00%

 

 

Northwestern

8

33.00%

9

67.00%

 

 

Iowa

10

72.31%

11

27.69%

 

 

Indiana

10

27.69%

11

72.31%

 

Interesting things to note:

  • Michigan State is more likely to get a 7 seed than a 5 seed
  • Illinois is the most likely team to get a 4 seed and a 5 seed
  • Purdue has a decent shot (17.85%) at getting the 1 seed (they need win against Iowa and have Wisconsin beat Ohio State)
  • Michigan has a 66% chance at a first round bye
  • Michigan’s most likely 1st round opponent is Illinois
  • Michigan has a 6.2% chance at a rematch with Michigan State in the 4/5 game

Obviously this will change after tonight’s game, but the snapshot in time is a nice reference to have.  Let me know if you want to know any more specifics about the stats.

Comments

Jeff

March 3rd, 2011 at 4:31 PM ^

That MSU 5-seed percentage is fascinating.  All the other percentages are binomial or have a normal distribution shape.

What makes it so hard for MSU to get a 5 seed?

U of M in TX

March 3rd, 2011 at 5:25 PM ^

They also lose a tiebreaker with Penn State. In the situations where that arises, they have to go to the second to last "head-to-head" tiebreaker, record vs Iowa, where Penn State wins with a 1-0 record to MSUs 1-1.

Jeff

March 3rd, 2011 at 5:41 PM ^

Thanks.  I knew it was how the tiebreakers fell, I just didn't know the tiebreak scenarios were.

Isn't MSU 1-1 head-to-head against Illinois?  What are the tiebreakers that cause MSU to be 6th if Illinois, Michigan and MSU are all 9-9?

U of M in TX

March 3rd, 2011 at 5:57 PM ^

If  Michigan, Michigan State and Illinois are tied at 9-9, you have to take each teams record against the other two.  Michigan and Illinois would have a 2-1 record against the other two and Michigan State would have a 1-3, because they would have lost to Michigan twice.  Becuase of their inferior record against the other two teams, MSU would be the 3rd place 9-9 team, Illinois would be the 1st 9-9, based on their head-to-head victory over Michigan and Michigan would be the 2nd 9-9 team.