Big Ten Tournament Seeding Percentages

This diary is based on all the possible outcomes to the last six Big Ten basketball games and how the outcomes affect the tournament seeding.  I went through all 64 possible combinations and weighted each outcome based on the percentages that kenpom.com had projected for each game.  Here are some of the results:

 Most Likely Outcome for Seeding:

This outcome has a 24.9% likelihood  of occurring.

Least Likely Outcome for Seeding:

This outcome has a 0.04% likelihood of occurring.

Here is the list of each team with their probabilities of seeding.  The order is based on the most likely outcome listed above:

Interesting things to note:

• Michigan State is more likely to get a 7 seed than a 5 seed
• Illinois is the most likely team to get a 4 seed and a 5 seed
• Purdue has a decent shot (17.85%) at getting the 1 seed (they need win against Iowa and have Wisconsin beat Ohio State)
• Michigan has a 66% chance at a first round bye
• Michigan’s most likely 1^st round opponent is Illinois
• Michigan has a 6.2% chance at a rematch with Michigan State in the 4/5 game

Obviously this will change after tonight’s game, but the snapshot in time is a nice reference to have.  Let me know if you want to know any more specifics about the stats.