After winning today against Minnesota we hold on to our NCAA Tournament hopes (despite what ESPN might think).  As we’ve known for a while, beating MSU is a must for this discussion to matter.  If that happens, we need to win 1-2 games in the conference tournament to get into serious tournament conversations. 

There’s already a thread about whether we could get in with just one win in the BTT, but that thread is lacking a critical piece of information – WHO would we play?  I started to investigate this and it revealed a very interesting scenario. 

Right now we know who the top three teams are (OSU, Purdue, Wisconsin).  We also know who the bottom four teams are (Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana).  At this point those seven spots aren’t really likely to change barring some upsets in the final week.  But the middle four spots are totally up for grabs among Michigan, MSU, Illinois, and Penn State. 

Here’s the remaining schedules and a prediction to go with them for the four bubble teams:

• Michigan State (16-11, 8-7)
  • Purdue (Loss)
  • Iowa (Win)
  • @ Michigan (Loss)
  • FINAL RECORD = 17-13, 9-9
• Penn State (15-12, 8-8)
  • OSU (Loss)
  • @ Minnesota (Win)
  • FINAL RECORD = 16-13, 9-9
• Illinois (18-11, 8-8)
  • @ Purdue (Loss)
  • Indiana (Win)
  • FINAL RECORD = 19-12, 9-9
• Michigan (18-12, 8-9)
  • MSU (Win)
  • FINAL RECORD = 19-12, 9-9

Those results, with all favored teams winning, conclude in a 4-way tie for fourth place.  Now let’s examine what this would mean for the tournament seeding, since the top five teams get a bye. 

According to the tournament’s website, in the event of a multi-team tie you have to look at the teams’ records against the other teams that are tied.  So let’s look at that list again, with the head-to-head record of the four teams:

• MSU:  2-4
• PSU: 2-4
• Illinois: 3-2
• Michigan:  4-1

This would mean that Michigan and Illinois would get the byes while MSU and PSU would have to play on the first day.  This is a good thing and a bad thing.  On the one hand it gives Michigan a better chance to make a run with one fewer game to play.  It also gives Michigan the chance to play a better team in their first game to improve their resume, in this case Illinois. 

On the other hand, Michigan doesn’t get to play one of the bottom feeders in the opening round to get their 20^thwin.  In some ways I think I would prefer to end up in the #6-7 spot to get another game against Iowa or Indiana.  I’m curious what everyone thinks about this. 

In the end what matters is beating MSU and winning at least the first game in the tournament, likely against Illinois.  In the scenario described here that would put us in the semi-finals with 20 wins, a 9-9 fourth place conference finish, a 5-1 record against the other conference bubble teams, and a top-ten strength of schedule.  Even with just that one BTT win it would be pretty hard to keep us out of the tournament with that resume. 

Go Blue – Beat MSU! 

UPDATE:

I'm not an expert on bracketology, but I think we should be rooting against Illinois and Penn State in every game while we actually (*gulp*) root for MSU to win both of their other games.  They would end up ahead of us in the standings, but we'd get a bigger resume boost for beating them.