Big Ten Tournament Scenarios

If by rooting for MSU, you mean rooting for a meteor to crash into the roof of the stadium, then GOOOO SPARTY!

If you decide to root for the meteor crash scenario, root for Dantonio to be in the building when it happens.

I did similar research but didn't post it in that thread because it was too long of a reply and didn't think about diarizing it. Good summation. 

But I think we should hope to be in the 4-5 game vs Illinois. I honsetly don't think beating Indiana/Iowa in the BTT does anything for our resume. I just don't think that 20 is a "magic number" that means you're in. And then after that, I think beating Wisconsin/Purdue/OSU is much less likely than beating Illinois. Yet beating Illinois would still be a solid top 50 RPI win. 

I also think we should be rooting for Penn State to beat Minnesota (but lose to OSU) because they are right on the cusp of being in the top 50 (I think 53?) and that would give us two more Top 50 wins without doing anything. That's like money in the bank. 

for MSU tomorrow. It comes down to the simple fact that I would rather have the chance for a quality win on friday, instead of having to play a game on thurday that could only hurt us for a chance to play an even tougher opponent on friday. Not to mention, I could see us beating Illinios on a neutral site. I don't see us beating Wisconsin or Purdue (they are playing lights out too). Simply put, I don't want to have to win four in a row to make it to the dance, I want to have to win three in a row.

FWIW Joey Brackets announced a new version of his updated bracket on the late SportsCenter and we are now one of the last 4 in.

Finishing as a top 5 team in the RPI #2 conference and beating Illinois would mean more than a token 20th win over a scrub. In my opinion the only thing playing Indiana or Iowa does is hurt us if we loose to them. A token 20th win over those guys wouldn't mean much to me if I was on the committee.

I personally will be rooting for a bye and the 4/5 game. A win in that game puts you right into the semifinals. Making the semifinals is what matters to the committee. They don't care if it takes you 1 win or 2 to get there from what I gather.

I also think that we are playing better than Illinois these days, and on a neutral floor, I would be disappointed if we lost to that team.

Win the BTT. We have come close to knocking off two of the three "lock" teams, A favorable bracket with a couple of proverbial good bounces, and who knows?

I would much rather play Illinois in the 4-5 game than play an Iowa or Indiana and theoretically play a Purdue or Wisconsin the next day. I feel that Illinois is a very beatable team and we have a great shot at beating them, plus a possible loss to Iowa or Indiana would be catastrophic. Low reward, but high risk. I'm probably too optimistic here, but if we get a bye, I think we could do some damage and make a run.

We're already on the last 4 out. The only reason that we weren't considered a "bubble" team last week was because we didn't have the wins yet. We (myself included) were bitching that we weren't considered yet while we were looking at the schedule and thinking that we would win. The analysts only look at what we've done not what we could do. I think being tied for fifth with one loss to who were tied with,  if we beat MSU we'll be in unless sparty wins the tourney and/or beats purdue. The BIG should get at least six teams. The top 5 are set and with minny all but eliminated it's between us State.

My spring break starts on friday and i get to go to my first game this year. Crisler is going to be nuts on saturday. Let's go sixth man. Lets make those pussies cry.

I'll pull for an MSU win.  But I'll be damned if I'm counting any chickens before that MSU game.  I think it's safe to say MSU is playing much better now.  And who among us doesn't have that seed of fear deep in our mind that MSU will snap on the rubber glove, dig deep up their collective ass and pull out the game in which they shoot 70% from the floor and commit almost no turnovers to dash U-M's hopes.  Please forgive the paranoia.

with respect to the first round B1GT bye.  (Or if they lose @Minny next Sunday, but we wouldn't know that until after the MSU game.)

Tie-breaking scenarios

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m.../110410aae.html

a. In two team ties  at 9-9, by the #1 tie-breaker Head-to-Head, we 
       beat MSU (2-0) 
       beat PSU (2-0) 
       lose to Illini (0-1)
b. In three-team tie breakers
       Mich (4-0) > MSU (1-3) ? PSU (1-3)
       Illini (2-1) > Mich (2-1)  > MSU (1-3)                            (Illini win #2 tiebreaker w/ win over Wisc)
       Illini (2-1) > Mich (2-1)  > PSU (1-3) ,  ditto
c. In a four-team tie breaker
       Mich (4-1) > Illini (3-2) > MSU (2-4) ? PSU (2-4)

Remaining schudules

MSU (8-8)
Mar 2 vsIOWA 6:30 PM ET
Mar 5 @MICH 2:00 PM ET

Illinois (8-8)
Mar 1 @#8 PUR 7:00 PM ET
Mar 5 vsIND 12:00 PM ET

PSU (8-8)
Mar 1 vs#3 OSU 9:00 PM ET
Mar 6 @MINN 1:00 PM ET

Unless Illinois drops both its remaining games, what they do won't have any impact on Michigan (accept possibly whether we wear home or away jerseys in our 2nd round B1GT opener).

I definitely want to be in the #4-#5 game.  Yes, we could lose that game, but it might not be disaster like a loss to Iowa would be, while offering us a chance for a solid win (which again, Iowa would not offer).  It would also greatly increase our chances of winning the whole BTT - teams that have to play on Thursday have an extra game's worth of exhaustion to deal with.