my brain hurts. just tell me who to root for/against please.
a terrible blight on our fine country
With Penn State's double OT loss at Iowa (and PSU needed a comeback from 9 down with under 2:30 left to get it to OT), the picture clears up a tiny bit, but not much. Only three conference games remain: Purdue @ MSU, Northwestern @ Ohio State, and Indiana @ Wisconsin. I'm going to try to break down the scenarios.
The tiebreakers are here: http://bigtennetwork.com/Championships/Big-Ten-Basketball-Tiebreaker.asp
Michigan State has clinched the outright conference title and the 1 seed. Iowa is the 10 seed, and Indiana is the 11 seed. These seeds are set. Seeds 2-9 are still not set.
Purdue controls who is the 2 seed and who is the 3. If Purdue beats MSU, then Purdue is the 2 seed. If Purdue loses to MSU, then Illinois is the 2 seed by virtue of its season sweep over Purdue.
Wisconsin is the 4 seed if they win against IU regardless of the other games, as they swept PSU and won their only game against OSU. If they lose, see below.
Ohio State is the 4 seed if they win and Wisconsin loses. They are the 5 seed if they win and Wisconsin wins. If they lose, well, see below -- they can fall as low as the 8/9 game.
Penn State is the 4 seed if both Wisconsin and OSU lose. They are the 5 seed if either of those teams lose. They are the 6 seed if both of those teams win.
And now for the fun part involving the fates of Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, and potentially Ohio State and/or Wisconsin should either or both of those teams lose.
IF OHIO STATE AND WISCONSIN BOTH WIN:
Fairly straight forward. Northwestern is the 9. Michigan is the 7 by virtue of a sweep over Minny. Minnesota is the 8.
IF WISCONSIN WINS AND OHIO STATE LOSES TO NORTHWESTERN:
We have a 4 way tie. The records against the group are:
That makes Michigan the 6 seed. Minnesota is the 9 seed. Because the other two teams are tied, we next move to best record against MSU. This makes Northwestern the 7 seed due to their victory at the Breslin Center while OSU did not, thus leaving Ohio State as the 8 seed.
IF WISCONSIN LOSES AND OSU WINS:
Northwestern is the 9 seed. In the round robin of Wisco, Michigan and Minny, each of the teams swept one and got swept by the other. None of them beat MSU, and Michigan becomes the 6 seed by virtue of a win over Purdue while the others did not (Purdue losing to MSU won't matter because all 3 teams split with Ill.). Wisconsin takes the 7 spot having swept Penn State and Ohio State (the next teams in the standings, which are tied in this scenario), leaving Minnesota in the 8 spot.
IF WISCONSIN AND OHIO STATE BOTH LOSE:
Nightmare scenario. As best as I can tell, only Wisconsin (4-3) and Ohio State (3-4) do not have a .500 record against the resulting 5-way tie group. Wisconsin becomes the 5 seed on that basis and Ohio State becomes the 9. Of the three .500 teams, Northwestern gets the 6 seed because of their MSU win. Michigan would be the 7 because of a win over Purdue (both Minn and Mich split with Ill, so even if Purdue loses to MSU, Michigan is still 7), and Minnesota would get the 8.
Hopefully I got all this right. The tiebreakers are a real doozy.
my brain hurts. just tell me who to root for/against please.
In my opinion, there is no question who to root for. Root for OSU AND Wisconsin to win. Here's why...
Playing Iowa or Indiana is insignificant. Both teams that we went to OT on the road against and both teams that we beat (or would have beaten) easily at home. That's a wash...
BUT, who are the three Big Ten teams that UM DIDN'T beat this year? (and matchup wise, probably never will). Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. If both OSU and Wisconsin win, that will put MSU as the #1, Wisconsin as the #4, and OSU as the #5. Why does that matter? Because all three are on the other side of the bracket! In this scenario, Michigan could get to the finals only playing teams they've already beaten. If that happens, I'd say UM has a shot at a #6 or #7 in the NCAA (probably means they beat Illinois and Purdue again).
I want absoultely NO part of Michigan State, OSU or Wisc.
I still am nervous about Mich. beating Iowa or Indiana, as you never really know for sure which Michigan team will show up. We could lay an egg at any moment. And past history has demonstrated that we tend to do so at the worst possible moment. But yesterday's win might signal a departure from previous failings....
We're 4-0 versus Northwestern and Minnesota
You caught one screw-up there, but missed the more blatant one -- if Northwestern loses to OSU, they are not tied with Minny and Michigan, and our H2H over Minny is the tiebreaker.
I fixed it already.
I suffer from tremendous tunnel vision.
We're either going to be playing Iowa or Indiana? Do I have that right? Our only options due to tiebreakers is to be the 6 or the 7 seed. Obviously I'd prefer to be the 6 seed :) So we want either Wisconsin or OSU to lose but not both. At worst we play Iowa or Indiana, that's not too bad. Also, frustratingly, CBS still doesn't have us in their bracket (WTF?!) but has Minn as a 9 seed (double WTF?!?!), grr...
Yes, I believe our only seeding possibilities at this point are 6 or 7, meaning we will play Indiana or Iowa.
Weirdly, we are the 6 if one and only one of Wisco and OSU loses. If both win or both lose, we are the 7.
This of course presumes I got this right.
That "Last Four Out" bracket was last updated before the Minnesota sweep, CBS now has UM in the 7-10 game against Butler.
This is tough to follow. But thanks for the info! It's a total cluster-bleep, that BTT.
Yeah, the multi-team tiebreakers quickly turn into a mess. I could have simplified it down to just what the seeds are depending on who wins and loses, but I wanted to "show my work" so that people could tell if I messed something up and so people could see why the teams are where they are.
Didn't mean that to sound like a criticism of your post. You did great work, the whole thing in general is confusing.
1) For the purposes of this, I'm going to assume Wisconsin beats Indiana because well...they're going to.
2) For the purposes of this, I'm going to express my opinion that Illinois is a better matchup than Purdue in the 2nd round.
THUS, we have to root for two scenarios:
1) MSU and OSU to win (making Illinois the #2, and us the #7)
2) Purdue and Northwestern to win (making Illinois the #3, and us the #6).
Obviously, the 2nd scenario is better, with an Indiana 1st round game instead of Iowa, but the 1st scenario is more likely.
As the State game is first, you'll know which to root for in the OSU/NW game based on the outcome of it.
Another benefit to the second scenario: it would give Purdue a big road win and boost their RPI several notches, which in turn would help ours a bit.
Disregard, I am dumb.
To root for? I want IU, I don't care if it's a quasi home game for them. So I want either Wiscy or OSU to lose, but not both. Way I figured it, we get Iowa if they both win, or both lose, IU otherwise.
In the Wisconsin wins/OSU loses scenario, Minny is not 3-3 against the tied teams, they are 2-4
0-2 vs Michigan
1-1 vs Ohio St.
1-1 vs Northwestern
That automatically puts them at #9 and you don't need to go to record vs. Purdue/Illinois for them
Thanks -- fixed now.
I looked at the standings right after the win, and quit once I figured we will end up the 6 or 7. Thx for working out the detailed scenarios. Of more significance to me is that we don't face Wisconsin in the tourney, the team we had the most trouble against, imho. I think we have a legit chance to win 3 games. Still don't see beating little brother. You never know, but I don't see it yet. However, winning three games does a lot more than the dance. It means a change in our NCAA seeding.
Looking at NCAA seeding, we actually are better off being seeded 10-11 or 6-7. 8-9 is death (2nd round against a one seed.) 12-13 is a toss up. This is the easiest way to get to sweet 16 for UofM, but means playing against a one seed in 3rd round. And I can't see dropping to a 12-13 if we win at least one more game.
Speaking of one more win, that brings Beilein to 20 wins in season two. I really like him a lot, and hope he stays a long time.
I'd like to see us win three, and bump up to a 7 seed, or win one, and stay at a 10 seed. Win two games and go to an NCAA 8-9 seed isn't the best scenario for us.
If PSU would have lost to Illinois, there was still a chance for Michigan to get #5, and they could have faced a #4 Wisconsin in one of the scenarios. Which would have been terrible.
And it's good they avoided the 8/9 game and MSU on Friday.
Really an ideal scenario right now -- Iowa or Indiana on Thursday, Purdue or Illinois on Friday. Could easily win both of those.
I want the scenario of UM being a six seed, so they get to play Indiana first in the "preliminary round" of 6-11, 7-10, and 8-9. I would hate to see UM play Minny the first game because of the revenge factor, but it appears that no such scenario exists.
Playing Indiana or Iowa will be a plus for Michigan. I would like to avoid playing Ohio State at anytime based on the matchup problems. I feel like Michigan has a fair chance against any other team...maybe not MSU as well.
Let me get this straight: the top 5 teams get first-round byes, the bottom 6 play each other in the first round. The 4 and 5 teams play each other in the 2nd round.
Do the teams that advance from the first round get re-seeded so that, for instance, MSU plays the worst team that advances, or is MSU guaranteed the winner of the 8/9 game?
MSU gets the 8/9 game winner regardless.
bracket-style is here: http://bigten.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/m-bracket-09.html
MSU is guaranteed to play the 8/9 winner, #2 vs 7/10 winner, #3 vs 6/11 winner.
Here's what I'm hoping for:
MSU beats Purdue
Wisconsin beats Indiana
Northwestern beats Ohio State
That puts MSU, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Minnesota in other half of the bracket, not to be played until the final, PLUS:
* We open against Indiana
* Our second round would be against a Purdue team that has lost 3 of its last 4.
* Ohio State and Minnesota play each other in the 8/9, meaning that there is a good chance the loser is out of the Tourney altogether.
Based on the excellent information presented here, the seeds would now be...
1. Michigan State
5. Ohio State
6. Penn State
Therefore, the first round games are #6 Penn State v. #11 Indiana, #7 Michigan v. #10 Iowa and #8 Minnesota v. #9 Northwestern.
Therefore, Penn State better not lose to Indiana (they almost did, at home, last Saturday). Otherwise, they're definitely out.
A Minnesota win over a somewhat legitimate NW team would probably secure them a spot.
That means Michigan is well advised to beat Iowa, or else the committee is faced with the uncomfortable prospect of admitting 8 teams to the tourney.
So here are the possibilities:
1. All three teams win. Here, Michigan would definitely be in, Minnesota would probably sneak in because NW is somewhat legitimate now, but Penn State's victory would be so weak that they may have to beat Purdue to secure the league's 8th bid.
2. Michigan wins, Minnesota loses, Penn State wins. Here, Michigan would definitely be in and if Penn State wins again, they would be in and Minnesota out. If Penn State only wins one game, then they would probably get the nod.
3. Michigan wins, Minnesota wins and Penn State loses. Here, the situation is simple. Michigan and Minnesota are definitely in and Penn State is definitely out with a bad loss.
4. Michigan wins, Minnesota loses and Penn State loses. Here, Michigan and Minnesota are definitely in, Penn State is definitely out.
5. Michigan loses, Minnesota loses, Penn State wins. Here, Penn State would probably be in, Michigan would probably be in because of the two wins over Minnesota and more big victories and Minnesota would be out.
6. Michigan loses, Minnesota wins, Penn State loses. Here, Penn state is definitely out, Minnesota would be in and Michigan would probably be in because Penn State lost.
7. Michigan loses, Minnesota wins and Penn State wins. This is the most dire outcome for Michigan. Minnesota and Penn State would probably be in, Michigan straddled with a bad loss and Michigan really have to sweat it on selection Sunday, where they'll either be the last 1-2 teams in or last 1-2 teams out.
8. All three teams lose. Here, Penn State is definitely out, Michigan is probably in and Minnesota is probably out.
Therefore, I can only see Michigan missing out if the 7th outcome is true (Michigan loses, Minnesota wins and Penn State wins). For the sake of our sanity, it would be better for all of us if MICHIGAN JUST BEATS IOWA.
well not really a bracket but a schedule of games. Michigan will play Iowa at 2:30 Thursday