Very interesting the way OSU has all local kids so far while almost half of Michigan's commits are from outside the B1G footprint. I'm sure OSU will get their national commits, but maybe Meyer shifted his strategy to focus a bit more locally. And it seems that Fitzgerald got Meyer's message to step up his recruiting game. If OSU, ND, UM, and NU are all recruiting at a high level, it's going to be really tough for MSU to capitalize on their recent success and get top players from the area.
Big Ten Recruiting Rankings 5-15-13
Michigan gets a commit and content is a little slow today, so recruiting rankings hit the front page. Plenty of movement this week with Big Ten schools picking up commitments in each of the last eight days. Changes since last rankings:
5-1-13: Rutgers picks up Pete Mokwuah.
5-2-13: Illinois picks up Chayce Crouch.
5-3-13: Penn State picks up Daquan Worley. Northwestern picks up Tommy Doles.
5-6-13: Nothwestern picks up Dareian Watkins.
5-8-13: Nebraska picks up Jason Hall.
5-9-13: Northwestern picks up Auston Anderson. Maryland picks up Johnathan Thomas.
5-10-13: Penn State picks up Marcus Allen and Jared Wangler.
5-11-13: Michigan picks up Lawrence Marshall.
5-12-13: Ohio State picks up Lonnie Johnson.
5-13-13: Michigan State picks up Matt Sokol.
5-14-13: Northwestern picks up Justin Jackson.
5-15-13: Michigan State picks up Chris Frey.
|Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings|
|247 Comp. Rank (Ovr)||School||# Commits||5*||4*||3*||Rivals Avg||Scout Avg||24/7 Avg||ESPN Avg||Avg Avg^|
|2 (12)||Ohio State||8||0||5||3||3.38||3.63||3.88||3.50||3.59|
|3 (14)||Penn State||9||0||3||6||3.00||3.33||3.33||2.89||3.14|
|6 (23)||Michigan State||8||0||0||7||3.17||3.33||3.50||3.00||3.25|
^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.
NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as two-star players.
On to the full data after the jump.
|#1 Michigan - 9 Commits|
The Wolverines strengthen their position at the top—and move up one spot in 247's national recruiting rankings—after the surprise commitment of Southfield DE Lawrence Marshall.
|#2 Ohio State - 8 Commits|
The Buckeyes pick up IN WR/DB Lonnie Johnson, giving them eight commits—all hailing from Big Ten country.
|#3 Penn State - 9 Commits|
The Nittany Lions leap past Rutgers after picking up MD S Marcus Allen, PA CB Daquan Worley, and MI LB Jared Wangler (yes, son of former Michigan QB John Wangler). They'd be giving Ohio State a serious run for #2 if ESPN got around to ranking half their commits.
|#4 Northwestern - 9 Commits|
The Wildcats move all the way from 7th in the Big Ten and 30th nationally up to 4th and 15th, respectively, after adding two consensus four-stars in IL RB Justin Jackson and OH ATH Dareian Watkins plus two recruits with big-time offers in MI OL Tommy Doles (Michigan) and TX RB Auston Anderson (Texas).
|#5 Rutgers - 9 Commits|
The Scarlet Knights slip two spots despite picking up NY DT Pete Mokwuah.
|#6 Michigan State - 8 Commits|
|Enoch Smith Jr.||DT||IL||3||3||4||3|
The Spartans slide one spot, though they should pass Rutgers as soon as under-the-radar pickup Matt Sokol gets scouted by the services. MSU also added OH LB Chris Frey this morning.
|#7 Wisconsin - 4 Commits|
No change for the Badgers.
|#8 Iowa - 3 Commits|
No change for the Hawkeyes.
|#9 Illinois - 4 Commits|
The Illini add OH QB Chayce Crouch and pass Minnesota in the team rankings.
|#10 Maryland - 3 Commits|
The Terrapins pick up MA RB Johnathan Thomas, also passing Minnesota on the big board.
|#11 Minnesota - 3 Commits|
No change for the Gophers.
|#12 Nebraska - 1 Commit|
The Huskers land TX S Jason Hall and stand pat in the overall rankings.
|#13 Purdue - 1 Commit|
It's unsure right now if Purdue's presumed first commit, TX LB Brandon Garner, actually had a committable offer—three of the four sites no longer list him as a commit, including 247, so I'm taking him off the board for now. The Boilermakers did pick up TX WR Trae Hart, so they're not shut out of the rankings.
#14 Indiana - 0 Commits
Perhaps he's shifted his focus after seeing a lot of those talented Ohio kids end up at UM, but I think it's also just how the chips happen to fall in regards to where kids are leaning each year.
It's a lot easier to get kids close to you to commit earlier. They can more easily come in for visits, whereas recruits further away often wait for official visits or summer break.
The OSU coaching staff has also had more time to watch Ohio recruits. Last year, they seemed to have problems pulling the trigger on offering due to not enough information.
Let's not put NW in the same stratosphere as UM and OSU recruiting. They are a lot closer to MSU then they are to the like of UM and OSU.
I'm not putting them at the same level. But if they are recruiting well at MSU's level then that's another tier of recruits that MSU loses out on, may actually hurt them even more than the other 3 recruiting well.
I know its better to root for the contiued growth of the conference's strength, but I hope Staee wallows in mediocrity for the next 10 yrs or so.
I count three out of Michigan's nine commits from outside the Big Ten footprint, which now includes New Jersey. That's not exactly "almost half."
Just becaue Rutgers is (going to be) in the Big Ten does not make it part of the Big Ten footprint for recruiting purposes. We do not have deep roots there, we have not had much success recruiting there. It is an eastern state, He is referring to the Midwest, which is where most of our recruiting traditionally happens, and where Hoke's predominant success has occurred. Getting top talent from Utah, Florida and New Jersey are firsts for Hoke here.
I don't agree with this. While other Big Ten schools may not have deep roots in New Jersey or historical success recruiting NJ kids, the same cannot be said of Rutgers itself. Penn State has also traditionally drawn from New Jersey. I realize this is an adjustment, but starting in 2014 we are going to have Rutgers and Penn State on the schedule every year for the foreseeable future. That means from now on, there is a good chance that Michigan will wind up playing against most of the good New Jersey prospects who don't sign with Michigan. Same goes for Maryland--though maybe not to the same extent, due to the presence of other major non-B1G powers in the area.
You're right about Penn State, Rutgers and Maryland recruiting NJ heavily. Michigan has pulled some great players from the state as well:
Gil Chapman, Garvie Craw, Larry Gustafson, Dwight and Ivan Hicks, Victor Hobson, Butch Woolfolk and Anthony LaLota all went to high school in NJ.
Yeah, it's kind of the opposite of what the analysts were saying when Hoke and Meyer started. Meyer was supposed to go national and Hoke was supposed to focus on the state of Michigan and surronding states. I don't know how many is projected in the OSU 2014 class but at the moment is kind of average.
I'd rather be Wisconsin right now than Rutgers. I'd rather have a few high quality recruits at this point than lots of 2/3* guys. At some point you need quantity, but I'd put Wisconsin around 4th/5th at this point.
Yeah, those types of situations are what make ranking them this early a struggle, but it will iron itself out over time. The only way to do it is the "if these classes were final" approach, otherwise you have to change your methodology as the season goes, which is either super difficult or extremely subjective.
That said, it's an interesting discussion still. You say you'd prefer Wisconsin, but keep in mind that most teams lose a guy or two from their class every year, so assume both Rutgers and Wisconsin loses one of the guys they currently have. Also keep in mind that your current commits are helping you recruit other guys. Also also keep in mind that it's a lot easier to get high caliber guys when you have 10 open spots as opposed to 18. So having quantity early is a good thing, even if it isn't all 4-star guys.
It's looking like Northwestern is really starting to pick up some momentum. They've been a solid program for a while - maybe they can take that next step up. I'd like to see it. Give Nebraska and Wisconsin a little something more to worry about in the west.
Indiana still sucks.
always makes me laugh. Poor Indiana.
"We named the dog Indiana."
Great line, great film.
From what I understand how you do your overall rankings and the comment under Penn State "They'd be giving Ohio State a serious run for #2 if ESPN got around to ranking half their commits" if a player gets three 4*, averaging in a 2* for a NR makes little sense as there is no way the forth service is going to give him 2*s.
To avoid this hard downward skew, I would suggest that you just average the rankings provided (particularly if 3 of the 4 services provide a ranking, but I would do it even if only 2 of the services provide a ranking). This would probably give a better reflection as to where the kid is actually ranked, and thus where the team's recruiting actually stands. And I think this is what your really want to convey with your reporting.
Just a thought.
EDIT: If no (or only 1) service provides a ranking, then it does make sense to give (or factor in) the player a 2* as his obscurity probably warrents it.
I believe Ace just changed the rankings to go by the 247 composite rankings, considering no matter what Ace (or Tim before him) did, people would complain about the process of averaging stars and/or ranking the teams. So basically blame ESPN and/or 247 for not evaluating the prospects and/or having an algorithm that doesn't account for ESPN not ranking prospects.
2* to all NR. For example, look at 247 composite ranking, overall, for Rutgers and Michigan State. Currently, Rutgers has the #20 class (!) in the country, with Michigan State #23. Yet Ace reports 24/7's average for Rutgers 9 recruits as 2.89 and for Michigan State's 8 recruits as 3.50. This makes absolutely no sense and is due to Ace factoring in 2* for NR's and is not actually 24/7's average.
EDIT- I must be reading things wrong as the numbers are not due to NR=2*, somehow 24/7 does have MSU averaging 3.50 and Rutgers 2.89. I guess Rutgers' 2/3*s are better than MSU's 3/4*s. Works for me.
There are 2 interesting things that can be missed because of this. Rutgers is on pace to have what might be one of their best recruiting classes of all time (due to the announcement of joining the Big Ten?) and Penn State is clearly doing much better than everyone else thought in the wake of their sanctions.
Regarding the algorithm, I don't think that would be a hard one to write.
You sound like a very smart person. I'm sure you can look at the data so nicely complied and presented by Ace to draw your own conclusions.
I realize there are always discrepancies in rankings, but holy shat, Maryland has a kid ranked 4* by Rivals and 24/7, but only 2* according to ESPN.
Maybe they only got to watch half of his game?
Ace is just too chicken to include notre dame in the rankings
ND in these rankings. I think seeing the comparison to the top 3 midwest powers (OSU, ND, and M) is a nice barometer on how we are recruiting on the macro level.
..after Ace includes ND back in the rankings...
"WHY are we tracking ND in the rankings? This seems like a waste of time..." Rabble rabble rabble
the mgoblog commentariat is a fickle mistress.
....but when you catch her in the right mood, it's a HELLUVA ride.
But you can just go to 247 and look at their team rankings if you just want to see where they are relative to other Big Ten teams. I don't think we need all the detailed analysis about players we'll never actually face.
Your personal Notre Dame update:
- 247's composite ranking has ND at #7 nationally with seven 4-stars and two 3-stars. We're #5 with seven 4-stars and three 3-stars (apparently including Pallante).
- They're still a bunch of chickenshit assholes.
slightly off topic, but it looks like lawrence marshall was offered by Florida. that is another nice offer for him.
outside of Michigan, OSU, Penn State and Northwestern. Kind of sad considering PSU is also being sanctioned to death right now. Wisconsin and Nebraska can't take advantage of their recent success and Illinois, Maryland, and Rutgers can't retain their states top talent to save their own lives
I see that you are making "crystal ball" predictions on 247sports now.
If anyone wants to check them out:
Hopefully your Artavis Scott prediction is a reverse jinx.
Pretty interesting. Westphal, Peppers and McDowell are all unanimous to M right now.
Another interesting, but maybe insignificant note:
I posted this in the Jabrill Peppers thread on mgoboard, but the CEO of 247sports is predicting Michigan for Peppers as well.
A question out of curiosity - in your rankings chart, why is Penn State listed as having three 4* commits and Northwestern is listed with only two 4* commits? In the breakdowns, Northwestern looks to have at least three, while PSU only has maybe 1.5 solid four-stars (though there are enough other commits with split rankings that I can see just saying they have three).
Also, if Penn State and Northwestern both have nine total commits, both have three 4* commits, and Northwestern's "Avg. avg." is higher than Penn State's, then why are they ranked lower? Similar question for MSU vs. Rutgers.
Obviously this can only be answered by 247, but it seems a little odd.
My guess is that those numbers are from Scout. It seems like Ace likes to link to scout articles the most in the recruiting round ups.
It's the composite. According to that, thompkins, Godwin and Allen are all four stars for PSU, but only Jackson and Watkins are for NW.
I think the rankings are based off of 247 composite rankings which uses the numerical value instead of the star value. For example, if someone is a low 4-star on 3/4 services but a low 3-star on the other service, his composite ranking could be a high 3-star, even though he has more 4-stars.
How many players will they have room for? I've heard 13. If true, they're mostly full already and have 4 WRs. It looks like O'Brien's strategy is to fill up his class early. From the outside, it seems he could be aiming higher. Not only is he getting some 4* commits, getting interest from Peppers has to help even if he doesn't land him.
Eh, it's not really that good. The only reason they're as high in these rankings is because of quantity (they are tied for the most commits). In star average, they are actually 7th, and barely ahead of Maryland at 8th, so middle of the road. Considering their quantity will likely be he lowest in the league, I would expect them to be very near the bottom of these rankings by signing day.
Biggest problem with their class? No linemen.
Crean is oversigning so much, the football team cant even get a commit.
I know I just read that they do most of their recruiting in the later part of the cycle, but jeez! 2 recruits?
Where did they go?
To the ACC.
Northwestern picked up commit #10 today, an OT with a solid offer list. 247 sports now ranks NW #3 in the B1G and #13 overall...or just one spot below OSU.
11W assplode if NW takes over second place, if even for a week.
Nebraska has two commits, not one, in the graph headline.
Thanks for keeping us posted, ace. :)