Big Ten Recruiting Rankings: 5-14-12
Michigan picks up a commitment, so the rankings are front-paged this week. There was very little action elsewhere this week, with the rest of the top eight remaining entirely unchanged. Also, Indiana continues to be unaware that they have a football program, which is probably for the best. Changes since the last rankings:
5-9-12: Michigan picks up Csont'e York. Illinois picks up Kenton Gibbs. Purdue picks up Randy Gregory.
Chart? Chart:
| Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | School | # Commits | Rivals Avg | Scout Avg | 24/7 Avg | ESPN Avg | Avg Avg^ |
| 1 | Michigan | 18 | 3.66 | 4.00 | 3.83 | 3.78 | 3.82 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 11 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.82 | 3.82 | 3.91 |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 12 | 3.42 | 3.75 | 3.67 | 3.83 | 3.67 |
| 4 | Penn State | 8 | 3.50 | 3.38 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.47 |
| 5 | Nebraska | 6 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 3.38 |
| 6 | Michigan State | 7 | 3.14 | 3.00 | 3.14 | 2.86 | 3.04 |
| 7 | Iowa | 7 | 3.14 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.71 | 2.96 |
| 8 | Wisconsin | 6 | 3.17 | 3.17 | 3.17 | 3.00 | 3.13 |
| 9 | Illinois | 9 | 2.89 | 2.89 | 2.78 | 2.33 | 2.72 |
| 10 | Northwestern | 2 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 3.13 |
| 11 | Purdue | 2 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.63 |
| 12 | Minnesota | 1 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.75 |
| 13 | Indiana | 0 | - | - | - | - | - |
^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.
NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as two-star players.
On to the full data after the jump.
| #1 Michigan - 18 Commits | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
| Patrick Kugler | OL | PA | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Shane Morris | QB | MI | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Dymonte Thomas | S | OH | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Kyle Bosch | OL | IL | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Jake Butt | TE | OH | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| David Dawson | OL | MI | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Chris Fox | OL | CO | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Ben Gedeon | LB | OH | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Jourdan Lewis | CB | MI | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Mike McCray | LB | OH | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Logan Tuley-Tillman | OL | IL | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Wyatt Shallman | ATH | MI | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Taco Charlton | DE | OH | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Gareon Conley | CB | OH | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| DeVeon Smith | RB | OH | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Jaron Dukes | WR | OH | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Khalid Hill | TE | MI | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Csont'e York | WR | MI | NR | 3 | 3 | NR |
The Wolverines add in-state receiver Csont'e York.
| #2 Ohio State - 11 Commits | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
| Cameron Burrows | CB | OH | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Jalin Marshall | ATH | OH | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Joey Bosa | DE | FL | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| J.T. Barrett | QB | TX | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Marcus Baugh | TE | CA | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Evan Lisle | OL | OH | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Billy Price | DT | OH | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Eli Woodard | CB | NJ | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | MO | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Jayme Thompson | S | OH | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Tracy Sprinkle | DE | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | NR |
No change for the Buckeyes.
| #3 Notre Dame - 12 Commits | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
| Hunter Bivin | OL | KY | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Steven Elmer | OL | MI | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Mike Heuerman | TE | FL | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Malik Zaire | QB | OH | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| John Montelus | OL | MA | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Mike McGlinchey | OL | PA | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Colin McGovern | OL | IL | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Jacob Matuska | DE | OH | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| James Onwualu | WR | MN | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Corey Robinson | WR | TX | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Devin Butler | CB | DC | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Rashad Kinlaw | ATH | NJ | 3 | NR | 4 | 4 |
No change for the Irish.
| #4 Penn State - 8 Commits | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
| Adam Breneman | TE | PA | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Christian Hackenberg | QB | VA | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Greg Webb | DT | NJ | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Garrett Sickels | DE | NJ | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Ross Douglas | CB | OH | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Brendan Mahon | OL | NJ | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Curtis Cothran | DE | NJ | NR | NR | 3 | NR |
| Andrew Nelson | OL | PA | NR | NR | NR | NR |
No change for the Nittany Lions.
| #5 Nebraska - 6 Commits | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
| Marcus McWilson | S | OH | 4 | 4 | 4 | NR |
| Josh Banderas | LB | NE | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Tre'vell Dixon | ATH | LA | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Christian Lacouture | DE | TX | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| A.J. Natter | DE | WI | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Courtney Love | LB | OH | 3 | 3 | 4 | NR |
No change for the Cornhuskers.
| #6 Michigan State - 7 Commits | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
| Jon Reschke | LB | MI | 4 | 4 | 4 | NR |
| Shane Jones | LB | OH | 4 | 3 | 3 | NR |
| Caleb Benenoch | OL | TX | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Gerald Holmes | RB | MI | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Jalyn Powell | S | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | NR |
| R.J. Shelton | RB | WI | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Damion Terry | QB | PA | NR | NR | 3 | 4 |
No change for the Spartans.
| #7 Iowa - 7 Commits | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
| David Kenney | DE | IN | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Colin Goebel | OL | IL | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Delano Hill | S | MI | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Brant Gressel | DT | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | NR |
| John Kenny | LB | IN | 3 | 3 | 3 | NR |
| Derrick Willies | WR | IL | 3 | 3 | 3 | NR |
| Nathan Bazata | DT | NE | 3 | NR | 3 | NR |
No change for the Hawkeyes.
| #8 Wisconsin - 6 Commits | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
| Chikwe Obasih | DE | WI | 4 | 3 | 4 | NR |
| Rob Wheelwright | WR | OH | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Austin Ramesh | ATH | WI | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Garret Dooley | LB | IL | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Jack Keeler | OL | IL | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| T.J. Watt | ATH | WI | 3 | 3 | NR | NR |
No change for the Badgers.
| #9 Illinois - 9 Commits | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
| Aaron Bailey | QB | IL | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Jarrod Clements | DE | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | NR |
| Christian DiLauro | TE | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | NR |
| Kenton Gibbs | DT | MI | 3 | 3 | 3 | NR |
| Merrick Jackson | DT | IL | 3 | 3 | 3 | NR |
| Dillan Cazley | CB | IL | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Kendrick Foster | RB | IL | 3 | NR | 2 | NR |
| Jesse Chadwell | OL | MI | NR | 3 | 3 | NR |
| Austin Schmidt | OL | OH | NR | NR | 2 | NR |
The Illini bolster their class with the addition of Cass Tech DT Kenton Gibbs. I was tempted to move Illinois up the board, but the quality of the classes for MSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin is a slight cut above at this moment, outweighing the Illini's slightly larger class. If some of those NRs start filling in, we could see Illinois make a leap.
| #10 Northwestern - 2 Commits | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
| Matt Alviti | QB | IL | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Blake King | OL | IL | NR | NR | 3 | NR |
No change for the Wildcats.
| #11 Purdue - 2 Commits | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
| Danny Etling | QB | IN | 3 | 3 | 3 | NR |
| Randy Gregory | DE | AZ | NR | 3 | 3 | JC |
The Boilermakers pick up the conference's first JuCo commitment in AZ DE Robert Gregory, who was originally a member of Purdue's 2011 class before taking the junior college route.
| #12 Minnesota - 1 Commit | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
| Keelon Brookins | CB | MN | 3 | 3 | 3 | NR |
No change for the Gophers.
Indiana is the lone Big Ten school without a commit.
interest playing for Indiana. Indiana's scouts evaluate many performance metrics, but emphasize student athletes who sport one of these:
The scout's went on to say there is a rumor that a high school junior was seen wearing one of these last week in French Lick.
So as I understand it, he did not visit this weekend, but still moved up his timetable to make a decision? Can we expect him to make a decision in the next month or so?
Some gurus have suggested that he will be the next Michigan commit. If/when he schedules another visit to Ann Arbor I would buckle up. Not sure if he cancelled this weekend's visit to stay home for mother's day or what. If so, what a sweetheart.
This might be leaping to a conclusion, but from reading friday's recruiting and reading Tremendous's Recruiting Notes, I would guess that Treadwell was supposed to visit with his coach, but his coach was sick and plans changed (reading the Nyles Morgan note, since they go to the same school). Just a life thing that actually came up and probably nothing to do with recruiting.
I wonder if York will go up in the rankings over the next few months after his stellar performances at the camps. That should help us in these rankings. Either way, I am glad we got him but would like to see a few more high targets sign before the end of the season.
Regardless of camp rankings, almost all Michigan commitments get a bump in the rankings (especially if they weren't real well known.) Brings them instant credibility. Not that it matters.
This is true, but the York case is different from most.
This will not just be a case of "Michigan falls for some under-the-radar recruit, and because of that, his ratings will jump." Here, he seems to have been offered because of the camp performances that very likely would have improved his ratings anyway.
In other words, there will be two factors powering York's climb in the upcoming rankings: his camp performances (the primary factor) and Michigan's offer (the secondary factor).
We can't disentangle the two factors you mentioned. I don't know how many recruit rankers were at those camps, saw York's drills, etc. My guess would be that most of them heard he did well, saw the Michigan offer, and then adjust the rankings. Would they have done so without the knowledge of the Michigan offer? Maybe, maybe not.
I'd bet he moves up on every major scouting services, but not all of them had reps there.
Now that we have York, Khalid Hill has an "under the radar" buddy, which is nice. I can't remember a year where I've been this excited about our two lowest rated recruits.
When Michigan takes a 3-star, it's because they saw something they like. They're not relying exclusively on ratings, and they're not taking 3-stars because the 4-stars turned them down. These are both positive developments that indicate the incoming 3-stars aren't necessarily second fiddles.
No school relies exclusively on ratings and everyone takes recruits who have 'something they like'.
I think you're point is that Michigan is choosing these 3-star types in preference to 4 and 5-star types, but I'm not sure you can say that. The only positions where we've seen highly rated recruits turned away has been OL and LB, where other highly rated recruits were already in line or strong candidates to get there.
But let's stop talking about the ratings, because really - who cares to parse differences between 3-star our coaches like to 4-stars our coaches don't. Beyond the elite 5-star types, and the low-level 3 star types, I don't think anyone can say anything with a great deal of confidence... whether OSU's class of 19 guys averaging 3.85 stars is better than our class of 24 guys averaging 3.79 stars -- way beyond statistical significance or relevance.
The interesting thing about Hill and York is not that they're 3 stars but that they are closely connected with Morris. And then there is the nexus around the Illinois recruits. This 'family' vibe the coaching staff has going seems to be legitimately affecting recruiting and I think that's a good thing, even if it doesn't show up in the rankings. Even IF it means they're taking slightly less talent individual recruits than another school, I'd rather have that fit and comraderie that a hodge-podge of talented athletes.
Interesting point. I wonder whether the coaching staff will go to a player like Morris and say, "Tell us about Csont'e York." I can't imagine that they'd want to deal with him requesting other offers, but I wouldn't be surprised if they used current commits as sources of information on other guys.
The coaches talk to recruits regularly, I can't imagine it not coming up.
The mathlete and other have demonstrated that star rankings matter, but those are how players are ranked after signing day. As others have pointed out, offers from top 25 programs tend to raise player rankings. I'm sure that Hoke and co didn't just see something they liked, they saw a player who is a fit for their system and they grabbed him before he came to the attention of the national services.
In aggregate, they matter. But if you're talking about an individual recruit's ranking changing from a 3 star or a 4 star (or vice versa) it doesn't matter. It has no affect on his ability or fate.
York was already ranked by some of the services, so they did know about him.
"I think you're point is that Michigan is choosing these 3-star types in preference to 4 and 5-star types, but I'm not sure you can say that."
Well, let me rephrase that a little. I think they'd prefer a 4- or 5-star, but in absence of an immediate availability they're willing to commit a 3-star early. Even if there may not be a pending 4-star commitment, they've taken a scholarship off their books (at least unofficially) and unlike some scummy bastards there's no word that Michigan is oversigning. This IS significant because when you commit to a 3-star earlier than you need to and DON'T oversign, you've limited your own future recruiting options.
Consider a team that committed a 3-star QB early. Then a 5-star recruit becomes available. What's your pitch? If you have NO QB commits (e.g., having turned down a 3-star) you can say, "We're a top school and you're our guy." Kids like hearing that. If you've already got a 3-star, you CAN assure the 5-star that he's "the guy", but you leave some lingering thoughts you pray don't get asked:
1) Would I really be competing with the 3-star for a spot?
2) You recruited him first; what did you tell him?
3) If I'm "the guy", why'd you sign the 3-star?
I'm not saying these questions can't be answered. There are just a lot of reasons to not nab a 3-star early if you think there's any reason at all why you can't recruit a 4- or 5-star later. Kids may be commodities to coaches and may even realize that on some level, but they don't like being TOLD that. So when Hoke takes a 3-star it's not because he can't do better, he's willing to risk a weaker future recruiting position to take this kid. He may whiff on his assessment, but there has to be a degree of confidence in what they saw. This is different from a school that's recruiting a 3-star because every 4-star is already taken or unlikely to sign.
That phrase seems like spin. It seems like willingness to compromise, the way you describe it. Like you said, you limit your own future options. The tradeoff for that is security. I don't have a problem with the strategy, but it seems dubious to argue that it's significantly different in terms of quality than schools who accept 3-stars late as backup plans (as we did with RBs in the last couple years).
The coaches, and any teams coaches, always go with the option that they think is the best available value for them. What matters ultimately is the results. The best measure for recruiting results we have is the rankings. The timing, in the end, doesn't matter at all.
If they're taking 3 stars, its usually because they think they're unlikely to get 4/5 stars.
Of course it's spin. Few schools will claim to recruit from a position of weakness; they're going to tell every kid they got exactly what they were looking for. So of course it qualifies as spin, depending who says it. However, when you say it's a "compromise" it's only in the context that scholarships aren't unlimited -- it's not like Hoke is leaving superior talent on the table, per se. The distinction here is that Hoke's crew has been reeling in 4-stars like gangbusters. So when they commit to a 3-star early, frankly, the claim that they "think they're unlikely to get 4/5 stars" doesn't hold water. The rankings were FP-ed for eff's sake.
This is kind of like, well, we have the budget for a luxury car, but I fell in love with this model and stopped shopping right there. Unless you're rich you certainly limit your future [car-buying] options, but that doesn't make your early decision ill-advised if you know you made the right decision. Whether it is the right decision is beside my point, though. My point is they're taking in guys they want, not necessarily finding the best recruits (though there's strong evidence they're doing that too). Even a 5-star can flop (*cough*Campbell*cough*).
You're right about one thing, though. . . what matters is the results. In the end, the rankings aren't going to matter if these teams don't win games.
Yes, but you can't know that you made the right decision. You can only be comfortable with it. And if consumer reports or whatever says that you bought a lower quality car, then you probably did. Just because you decided sooner doesn't mean you decided right. It doens't make your choice any better or worse.
Of course a 5 star can flop, but he's less likely to than a 3 star... You may have a problem-free Honda that makes you happy or a Jag that drives you nuts with unforseen problems or doesn't have enough cup-holders, but more often than not, the Jag is the better car, for most people.
I don't know how you can say "they're taking the guys they want" when it's clear, in the case of Isaac at least but realistically many more, they're NOT. They're taking the guys they can get. Just like any other school. They get some of the guys they want and they settle for others...Just like any other school, even Texas.
I think we agree in general on recruiting, I'm just having trouble with your assertion that because the staff likes these guys enough to offer them we should consider them to be better than their rankings. I don't think this staff has really earned that trust yet in recruiting. I think programs with stable coaching staffs that consistently unearth ultra-productive 3-stars have. I'm confident that Michigan will, because I respect the coaching staff that much, but they haven't proven that yet. Haven't been around for long enough. The '11 class was a mixed bag and thrown together quickly. The '12 class hasn't played a down. So...lets wait and see how Drake Johnson, Jehu Chesson, and Willie Henry do before we give them full faith.
When was the last recruit you WEREN'T excited about?
In no way am I trying to drag up ghosts of the past, but the 3* mini-mafia seems far quieter now than in years past. Just saying...
it's hard to have a three-star mafia when you barely have any three-stars.
Great write up as always.
If OSU is going to catch us they will needs a lot of high quality guys- because our last couple of recruits will likely be high 3 stars at minimum it seems like with a lot of talent looking our way and being able to be selective.
Still very early though- if we don't lose recruits its hard not to see us be top 3- and likely top unless OSU/ND/PSU can go crazy
Just read on ESPN (Wolverine Nation) that WR Jack Wangler, Johnny's son, is getting some interest from the Wolverines.
needed to look 5 threads lower
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