Picking up that 4th star from Scout just in time for us to snatch him from MSU?
I thought that myself when I read that article that talked about a Data Scientist(tm)
Recruiting rankings are front-paged this week as Michigan loses a commit, falling back towards the pack in the process. The Wolverines now hold a very narrow lead at the top over Notre Dame, though there's a significant gap between the Irish and the rest of the field. Changes since the last rankings:
10-9-12: Michigan State picks up Delton Williams. Wisconsin picks up Sojourn Shelton.
10-13-12: Purdue picks up Kyle Shortridge.
10-14-12: David Dawson decommits from Michigan.
|Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings|
|Rank||School||# Commits||Rivals Avg||Scout Avg||24/7 Avg||ESPN Avg||Avg Avg^||POINTS*|
^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.
*The product of number of Commits and Average Average
NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as two-star players.
On to the full data after the jump.
|#1 Michigan - 22 Commits|
|Maurice Hurst Jr.||DT||MA||3||4||4||3|
The Wolverines have their first decommit of the class in David Dawson, leaving a very narrow gap between them and Notre Dame.
|#2 Notre Dame - 21 Commits|
|Torii Hunter Jr.||WR||TX||4||3||4||4|
No change for the Irish.
|#3 Ohio State - 17 Commits|
No change for the Buckeyes.
|#4 Illinois - 19 Commits|
No change for the Illini.
|#5 Northwestern - 17 Commits|
|Anthony Walker Jr.||LB||FL||3||3||3||3|
No change for the Wildcats.
|#6 Iowa - 16 Commits|
|Derrick Mitchell Jr.||S||MO||3||3||3||3|
No change for the Hawkeyes.
|#7 Nebraska - 14 Commits|
No change for the Huskers.
|#8 Michigan State - 13 Commits|
The Spartans add PA ATH Delton Williams. Dennis Finley picks up a fourth star from Scout.
|#9 Wisconsin - 13 Commits|
The Badgers gain a commitment from FL CB Sojourn Shelton. T.J. Watt gets a three-star rating from ESPN.
|#10 Penn State - 11 Commits|
No change for the Nittany Lions.
|#11 Purdue - 12 Commits|
The Boilermakers pick up FL DT Kyle Shortridge.
|#12 Indiana - 11 Commits|
No change for the Hoosiers.
|#13 Minnesota - 6 Commits|
No change for the Gophers. Oof, Gophers.
Picking up that 4th star from Scout just in time for us to snatch him from MSU?
I don't think they were that high on him, since they didn't even offer him a scholarship.
Update to the list....David Kenney is gone from Iowa now.
Indiana has nearly double the number of recruits as Minnesota.
Gopherquest 2014 is strong with this one.
Such a bummer about Dawson.
Ace, I've made this argument before, each time stressing that it's really not a big deal either way (still isn't), but I figured that I'd try one more time.
I know that you're going for objectivity when you use that "points" measure to rank classes, but I think it's the wrong measure. (As it stands, it's the total number of stars for a class divided by four.)
I did a diary with a different way of illustrating class quality, and I think it makes that point. If you look at the chart below, it seems hard to justify having, for example, Northwestern's class ranked above those of Nebraska, Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State, and Iowa. (You have both Northwestern and Illinois ahead of all five of those schools.)
My two cents, for what they're worth: when you're working with a small, manageable number of classes like this, subjective rankings (like the ones you used to do) almost always will be more reasonable than rankings based on any non-super-complicated formula. I work with numbers for a living, but I think people often see numbers and assume objective truth, when they typically require just as many, if not more, questionable assumptions as less numbers-based measures.
Long story short: I liked it better the old way, but this still doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things.
I like that chart. It definitely adds to the discussion. Would like to see what it looks like with ND in it.
This argument is one that's been many times on this board and Ace always falls back on the "this is a snapshot in time" argument, even though no one cares about WHEN a recruit committed once they hit campus.
If we're ranking teams based on how well recruiting is going opportunity cost needs to be acknowledged.
I think eventually Ace will change the rankings methodology, but, given the heavy Michigan-centric orientation (I'll be generous and not use the word BIAS) of this blog it's going to take Michigan getting 'screwed' for it to change. That will happen, inevitably.
Right now, Michigan leads in quantity so quantity isn't viewed as a problem in the methodology. But some year when Minnesota or MSU or whoever gets 20 3-stars quickly, while Michigan patiently moves about it's business of collecting high 4 stars and 5 stars for what is ultimately going to be a 17 or 18 person class, THEN Ace or someone else will change the methodology to be more reflective of how well a team is recruiting at a given time.
Right now, Notre Dame is getting better recruits than Michigan according to 3 of the 4 sites, but because they have one (ONE!) fewer recruit (out of 20+) they are ranke lower than Michigan. That is silly. But it is silly in a way that 'favors' Michigan, so it's okay. If (when) it is the other way around the board will be in an uproar. Or at least the people who bother to read/care about such a thing.
How much longer are we going to include Notre Dame in these rankings? Now that they've taken a step closer to the ACC and will no longer be playing Michigan annually (in two more years), I move that we remove them from these rankings.
Who's with me?
Take a look at last week's weekly recruiting ranking for coverage of this topic. Or perhaps the week before that, or two weeks before last weeks, or three…
How dare he reasonably respond to a recruiting post without reading every comment thread on every post in this series!?
in the 9/30 post. FWIW I'm in favor of keeping them on the list; they're a program that recruits similar players to M, and is one of the only midwest schools that qualifies as a recruiting powerhouse (so they're a good barometer for Michigan). Other than Ohio and MSU, they're the team I'm most interested in seeing recruiting rankings for, followed by PSU after a sizeable dropoff.
My uninformed opinion was that ND was more "national" based and Michigan more B1G based. Sure looks that way here, UM 18/22, ND 8/21 in the conference footprint.
Thanks to both authors for interesting, informative charts.
but from my count of offers (on Scout), Michigan has four commits with ND scholarship offers, and maybe four or five with "interest" from ND. In ND's 2013 class, ten of their commits hold Michigan offers.
Like I said, this isn't the best measure (top five or ten lists would be better for the recruits that release them), but it seems like a ND offer is usually a big deal to M guys that get it, and that a M offer is a somewhat big deal for the guys in ND's class.
FTR the list of committed players with offers from each: Logan Tuley-Tillman, Taco Charlton, Kyle Bosch, Dymonte Thomas, Alex Anzalone, Jaylon Smith, John Montelus, Devin Butler, Mike McGlinchey, Hunter Bivin, Colin McGovern, James Onwualu, Jacob Matuska, Steven Elmer.
Edit: To compare with your class, there are three Nebraska commits with Michigan offers, and five M commits with Nebraska offers. Those players are: Kevin Gladney, Christian Lacouture, Marcus McWilson, Ross Douglas, Maurice Hurst, Michael McCray, Taco Charlton, Kyle Bosch.
I'd guess that Penn State's numbers are similar to Nebraska's, but probably a bit higher (until this class at least). Virtually every midwest recruit M goes after seems to have an offer sheet that includes MSU, although they probably only get 2-3 per year with a Michigan offer. My totally unscientific guess is that we have more offers in common with ND than anyone other than MSU and Ohio State (excluding everyone without a realistic shot at landing a guy, like EMU or Toledo or something).
I'd say we compete for about 10 recruits per year. Now, I haven't actually checked the accuracy of that statement, it's just what I seem to remember. There are many recruits that have both M and ND in their final groups, regardless of where they end up going
Darius Latham Decommits from Wisconsin, David Kenney decommits from Iowa. Both are expected to flip to.... Indiana...?