Best and Worst: Bye Week

Submitted by bronxblue on

This is going to be a short diary, with more a focus on college football generally than Michigan football’s last two weeks of the regular season.  I say this every time, but I mean it.  Also, please make sure to read my comment regarding Frank Clark and what has come out in the past couple of hours.

Best:  A Michigan-free Football Saturday

Virtually everyone here is a diehard Michigan fan; I kinda doubt you’d be posting and reading this blog if you weren’t.  But it should come as no surprise to many that watching this version of Michigan football the past couple of years is not an overly-entertaining affair. 

(via CBS)

So I’ve come to enjoy watching football on bye weeks because I can just enjoy football for what it is, with no real rooting interest or aneurysm-inducing reactions to what’s going on during the game.  I can watch Miss. St. vs. Alabama, OSU vs. Minny, or FSU vs. Miami and just enjoy watching other teams without having to be overly critical of What It Means or The Future of the guys on the sidelines.  Plus, I got to see Notre Dame blow a game to Northwestern (!) and Auburn get waxed by Georgia and get a bit of revenge for that insanity last year.

Best:  Seriously, Irish?

You get down with your bad self, Pat!

Nothing is more fun than seeing ND lose due to their own hubris, and a piece of me is happy to one-half of M00N get a little bit of a gift.

Worst:  Smart football?

So this conference really does suck at football. 

Okay, take a step back.

This conference sucks at smart football compared to the rest of the country. 

Minnesota and OSU was amazing in so many ways, from the two turnovers by Jalin Marshall (one on a probable score and another on a muffed punt that set up a Minny TD), to the worst onside kick I’ve seen in a long time (the Minnesota kicker both kicked it softly AND directly at the OSU hands guy), to Mitch Leidner going 7/19 for 85 yards and 2 INTs, 36 of those yards on one completion to Maxx Williams.  But at least those are football-type events; Cole Stoudt completed 3 passes to Clemson players and 3 to Georgia Tech DBs, and two of these were returned for TDs. 

No, what was amazing was Jerry Kill deciding late in the 4th quarter, deep in OSU territory and on 2nd down, to kick a 34-yard-field goal while being down 10.

(via wikia)

Obviously, you need the FG and the TD, and on 4th down I absolutely understand taking the points versus going for a TD.  But he had a bit over a minute left, and while he had no timeouts (which he used to slow down OSU’s previous drive), there was little danger in at least trying to throw to the endzone once or twice.  You need that TD at some point, and passing from the 17 at least gives you some options; trying to throw from the 40 (or wherever they’d be on a successful onside) with under a minute wasn’t going to be any easier.  And while Minny’s kicker had missed earlier, it was a 50-yarder doinked off an upright with more than enough distance.  Instead, the Gophers ran up, spiked the ball, then trotted out the FG kicker for a chipshot and then failed to recover the onside kick.  It was baffling enough for the announcers to question it as it occurred, and is even more inexplicable  in retrospect. 

I hate picking on Kill because he is a good coach who has helped Minnesota recover from the dregs to be a decent mid-level conference program, and his medical condition is obviously quite draining and it is a testament to him that he is performing as well as he is.  That said, this was a crazy end to a game that probably shouldn’t have been that close anyway.

Best:  Running Back ConfUrence?

I know PSU is known as Linebacker U (yes, and for other things).  But for all the crap that the conference gets for being less innovative than others, but what it does have is the most complete and impressive collection of running backs in the country, with 4 in the top 10 nationally, including the top 2 spots.

Melvin Gordon broke LaDainian Tomlinson’s FBS record for rushing yards with 408 yards on 25 carries (!), which I’m not sure I could pull off playing NCAA Football 2014 on easy mode against Southern Directional State U.  And Nebraska is no slouch defensively; they were comfortably in the top-25 defenses by FEI coming into the game, and were only giving up 3.7 yards per carry.  By comparison, Tomlinson put up his yardage against Texas-El Paso on 43 carries(!).  Wiscy has had some great backs in its history, but Gordon seems otherworldy right now, and for once I’m happy that the weird scheduling quirks at the conference kept him off the schedule.

On the other side of the field, Abdullah struggled running the ball, especially once Wisconsin started to pull away, but any other year he’d be in the conversation for best back in the conference despite being injured the past couple of weeks.  Befitting the tire fire that has been Indiana this year in conference, Tevin Coleman put up over 300 yards running the ball and still finished over 100 yards behind the day’s leader while IU lost by 22.  Similarly, David Cobb has been a major force behind Minnesota’s renaissance this year, and yet I’m not sure most people realize he’s the eighth-leading rusher in the country.  And you have guys like Langford at MSU and Elliott and OSU putting up really good numbers as well.Gordon and Coleman could return next year, though I wouldn’t hold me breath on either. 

As a Michigan fan it is obviously distressing to see so much talent at the running back position seemingly everywhere else except in Ann Arbor.  I don’t know much about Fred Jackson and his coaching style, but it is clear that there is talent in the region and Michigan is either (a) whiffing horribly, or (b) failing to develop it into competent on-field performers.  Still, it’s been fun watching these guys play so well, and I’m going to try to enjoy it because I’m not sure we’ll see this concentration of talent anytime soon.

Worst:  M.C. SECher

(via wikipedia)

Michigan was never going to sniff the college playoff this year, and as soon as Oregon trounced MSU and OSU got blitzed by VT nobody in the conference stood much of a change of competing for a spot; I guess OSU has a slight chance if they win out and a bunch of teams ahead of them lose, but that seems unlikely.  Not only is my team not involved in this first year, but the two teams that are my mortal enemies are most-likely out, so hate-watching isn’t on the table either.  So instead, I’ve been watching the past couple of weeks play out nationally with about as much detachment as one person can have for the sport. 

So this weekend #4 Alabama beat #1 Mississippi State at home, #15 Georgia blitzed #9 Auburn at home by 27, #24 Texas A&M lost at home to a Mizzou team that lost to Indiana at home and probably won’t finish the year with a win against a ranked team, and #17 LSU was shut out by 5-5 Arkansas a week after nearly upsetting now-#1 Alabama.  This came a week after A&M upset Auburn on the road.

Now, on the surface these results should be exciting; highly-ranked teams playing each other in important games are what college football is supposed to be all about.  Well, that and money.  Lots and lots of money.  Oh yeah, and maybe education.

But as has been the case all year, it feels like a shell game is going on in the SEC and the media (read: ESPN) is all too happy to keep it going for the watching public.  This year has seen an unprecedented number of SEC teams ranked, and in a down year for college football some of the best teams do reside in the Southeast.  But these rankings have become more and more dubious as the year has gone on and we realize that teams like LSU, Auburn, and A&M aren’t sleeping giants but instead deeply-flawed outfits with inconsistent performances. 

The problem is that because the perception remains that the SEC is the dominant football conference by leaps and bounds, you have this weird feedback loop wherein everyone has “good” wins and “good” losses because everyone is ranked, even though objectively they probably shouldn’t be.  I know the fashionable term is SEC bias, but it isn’t even that; it’s just laziness and an inability to look beyond the numbers next to the logo. 

LSU has two wins against ranked teams on their schedule – 28-24 against Wisconsin to open the year wherein the Badgers forgot to give the ball to Melvin Gordon at halftime and let LSU score 21 points, and a 10-7 fugly win against Ole Miss that had “drama” the same way a couple of drunk housewives throwing crap at each other on a Bravo show have “character development.”  And yet, they were #17 in the country going into the weekend because they had losses to highly-ranked Auburn, Mississippi State, and Alabama, who themselves benefited from “good” wins against the usually-ranked Tigers. 

Miss. State was #1 in the country before this weekend because they beat 4-loss LSU, 3-loss Auburn, and 4-loss A&M.  Since then, they struggled to beat Arkansas and had a meh performance against Kentucky, but are still in the playoff hunt and will basically play an elimination game against Ole Miss to end the year, a team that had an okay win against Boise St. to open the year (don’t be fooled by that 35-13 score; it was an ugly game until well into the 4th quarter), a legit good win against Alabama, a victory over that same A&M team, and “good” losses to LSU and Auburn.

All of these teams are basically trading off wins; you go up and your opponent goes down, and next week you’ll trade places again.  People call it “competitive balance” and that has some merit, but at some point balance becomes mediocrity, and I’m starting to think that is the case for the SEC this year.  There are no dominant teams in the country; FSU is a paper tiger at #1 given how they’ve looked for weeks now, and the Pac-12 and Big-12 keeping get in each other’s way.  So I get that the SEC feels like a safe bet because of their recent dominance.  But actually watching these games, it feels like this year is the worst type of one for the new playoff format.  Nobody really deserves to be #3 or #4, and if this was a skins game in golf you’d almost rather they roll over the 2 spots to next year when, maybe, there would be more deserving candidates.  But what I do know is that barring a major immolation by a couple of teams, the SEC will probably get a 2-loss team into the playoff because of musical chairs in the polls, not because of any amazing evidence on the field.

Worst:  F*cking Ohio

(via http://hymiesrecords.com/)

[Note:  This report about Clark’s situation came out as I wrote this entry.  Based on the details included therein, this is a bad situation for all involved and, if true, should lead to Clark’s immediate dismissal from the team.  I’m leaving in my thoughts here because I feel the themes remain true.] 

So I don’t know what happened to Frank Clark this weekend; seems like nobody does beyond the basics.  He was arrested in Ohio for a misdemeanor domestic violence offense.  It’s the most serious misdemeanor offense charge, but the heaviest penalty is up to 6 months in jail and up to $1,000 in fines.  I’m still a registered attorney in Michigan as well New York state, but I never practiced in this area of law and have no experience in Ohio, so I’m not able to comment on the overall seriousness of the charges.  But what I do know is that Frank Clark did something significant enough that police were called, he was arrested and charged, and (to my knowledge) is awaiting a bail hearing/bond posting.  I’m sure there are threads out there in the ether where people claim to know more, but until I see something more credible than boojack321_UMSUX, I’m not going to take those claims with much salt.

It doesn’t surprise me that people have overreacted and started to concoct their own narratives regarding what happened this weekend; this is of course the internet, and the Michigan fanbase is as neurotic and reactionary as any others.  I’ve read people calling for restraint until we hear more, others claim this is yet more proof that Hoke has lost this team, and (sadly) a number of people denigrating Frank Clark and distancing themselves from his association with Michigan.  I remain steadfast in the insane belief that we don’t know enough to pass any judgment one way or another, but I’m also a philistine. 

In no way should this be taken as some greater indictment of Hoke or the program; Frank Clark's actions on a bye week, miles away from campus, are his own alone.  This is not Hoke's fault, nor the school's, nor anyone else's; these are the actions, whatever they are, of a single person, and in no way should be try to read more into them than that.

By this time tomorrow we should know much more about what happened and proper Internet Justice will be handed down, but it is safe to assume that Clark won’t be suiting up this weekend barring an extremely rare reversal of the legal process, and I’m guessing his final game may well have been against Northwestern.  If so, it will be a sad coda to a career at Michigan that has been marked with some ignominy (the laptop incident) as well as flashes of brilliance on the field. 

Obviously I hope justice is served, and that once all of the facts come out the proper resolution is achieved.  That said, and I know I’m just spitting in the wind by this point, but I hope the UM community pumps the brakes a bit on the crucifixion until we know more.

Best:  Hoops!

So Michigan beat Hillsdale comfortably after some early-game jitters.  The offense looks pretty good, and the defense has its issues with so much inexperience in the front court but it can absolutely turn it on in spurts. 

I thought Walton looked great running the offense, and Caris messed around and nearly got a triple-double for his efforts.  The freshmen looked like freshmen, but you can see the potential there.  In particular, I thought Dawkins looked really explosive out there in his limited minutes, and should be a nice second-team scoring and energy option. 

It’s early, but it was nice to watch a Michigan team take care of business and look fun and interesting while they did so.

Best:  Two More Weeks!

Like most people, I’m ready for this season to end.  The Clark situation is one last kick in the balls, but it should be over soon.  As I said last week, I’m not excited about UM to make a bowl game if they do, but whatever, I’ll still be hoping they pull off the win against Maryland and get to 6 wins.  But this year could not end any sooner.

Comments

RJMAC

November 17th, 2014 at 2:29 AM ^

Good stuff and enjoyed reading. Regarding Kill kicking the field goal first, I don't have much of a problem with that. Minny needed two scores and were running out of time . I've seen teams previously spend way too much time trying to get the TD first and leave barely enough time to run another a play even if they recovered the onside kick. Ideally teams would prefer to score the touchdown first and then kick the FG to tie, but they were running out of time driving for the TD.

Quiet in the R…

November 17th, 2014 at 7:17 AM ^

Hi mgoblog, longtime lurker but first time poster here.  Looking forward to making a positive contribution on the blog.

Hopefully I don’t ruffle many feathers, but I wanted to rebut the OP’s contention that there is some sort of “shell game” between the SEC and the media that artificially inflates the SEC’s strength as a conference and is due to  “just laziness and an inability to look beyond the numbers next to the logo.”

If you want to get away from ranking teams based on “hype,” “media bias,” or dare I add your own personal biases, I suggest using a metrics-based approach.  Two really good metrics to use for college football are Jeff Sagarin’s Predictor (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/) and Sports-Reference’s Simple Rating System (SRS)  http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2014-ratings.html

How do these metrics assess the SEC’s performance this year?

Sagarin Predictor: 4 of the top 6 teams are from the SEC

  1. Alabama
  2. Ole Miss
  3. Georgia
  4. Baylor
  5. Oregon
  6. Auburn

SRS: 5 of the top 6 teams are from the SEC

  1. Alabama
  2. Oregon
  3. Ole Miss
  4. Georgia
  5. Auburn
  6. Miss. State

By contrast, there are only 2 SEC teams in the AP Poll’s top 6 (Alabama and Miss. State at   #2 and #4 respectively). If anything the media is underrating the SEC's strength compared to the metrics.

Now in no way am I saying the metrics are a be-all end-all, but if you want to go the non-“lazy” route and “look beyond the numbers,” you couldn’t be more wrong.   Otherwise, all you’re really doing is replacing the “SEC bias” with your own.

bronxblue

November 17th, 2014 at 8:00 AM ^

I won't get too deep into this because I already see the rabbit-hole it will lead to, but all of those rankings are based heavily on strength of schedule...which are based on a combination of wins/losses as well as rankings by polls and the like.  And I can point to FEI that doesn't have a 3-loss Auburn in the top-5, and once they update S&P+ (they haven't since the 8th) I suspect we'll see some movement.  Also, Massey has a wider range of rankings than the two you listed, even though I take issue with Ole Miss and Miss St beating #3 and #4.

Again, this is all semantics, and I said that the SEC is where some very good teams reside.  But the circular nature of all of these rankings, wherein you beat X and then you lose to Y and nobody moves, creates a situation wherein LSU is hanging around the top-10 in a lot of them because they barely beat Ole Miss and then barely lost to Alabama, with some non-competitive games wrap around that.

But by all means enjoy what you enjoy; just don't expect me to be swayed by some selective stats and impassioned arguments about my "biases" showing through because I don't agree with you.

Quiet in the R…

November 17th, 2014 at 8:45 AM ^

Strength of schedule from metrics like FEI, Sagarin, and SRS is not at all based on “rankings by polls and the like.”  That’s not exactly one of those “agree to disagree on” kinds of things.

As for the circular nature of conference play, isn't that what makes doing well in your nonconference games so important?  The SEC has only had 3 nonconference losses all year--Tennessee losing to Oklahoma, Vanderbilt losing to Temple, and Missouri losing to Indiana(!). To claim this is all just semantics seems overly dismissive in my opinion.

RJMAC

November 17th, 2014 at 12:31 PM ^

Part of the playoff voting is the 'eye test', meaning which teams are playing the best football right now. You could argue that both OSU and Wisconsin deserve to be in the discussion for a playoff bid. At this point in the season they can play and beat anybody IMO. I heard some analysts say teams like Bama had 'qb issues' earlier in the season, but straightened them out. That is why they should be ranked as high as they are now because they are playing at a higher level. So the analysts mostly dismiss the fact that Bama lost to a 2 loss Mississippi team,and beat a winless in the SEC Arkansas team( until this weekend) by ONE POINT.
OSU lost to a weak Va Tech team earlier in the season when they were still breaking in their second string redshirt freshman QB. Wisconsin had an injured QB to start the season and were relying on a converted QB from their safety position. Wisconsin lost early to LSU ( a game they were dominating ) and lost to a scizophrenic Northwestern team. They have since eviserated their remaining opponents.
About the SEC,most of their non conference games are a joke. Most of them play 3 or 4 cupcakes. One or two of the SEC teams might play ONE decent non conference team.
One last thing, SEC east division leader Missouri LOST TO INDIANA at home. Indiana started the season better than they are now. The reason is because they lost their starting QB.

omg lasers pew pew

November 17th, 2014 at 1:38 PM ^

I hate the SEC as much as the next guy, but I like disproving wildly inaccurate and easily checked statements even more.

"About the SEC,most of their non conference games are a joke. Most of them play 3 or 4 cupcakes. One or two of the SEC teams might play ONE decent non conference team."

LSU beat Wisconsin
Alabama beat West Virginia (who beat Maryland)
Arkansas beat N Illinois (who beat Northwestern)
Auburn beat Kansas State
Georgia beat Clemson
Other teams the sec played/will play: FSU, Oklahoma, Boise St, another Clemson, ECarolina
 

RJMAC

November 17th, 2014 at 11:40 PM ^

SEC teams still play 3-4 cupcakes, BUT yes, most will play probably one decent non conference game. The cupcake teams they play however are really soft cupcakes. Check out Alabama's non conference schedule besides West Virginia. Their next game is against Western Carolina. (nuff said)
BTW Northwestern,( which lost to Northern Illinois, which lost to Arkansas) beat Notre Dame. Notre Dame came within an offensive pass interference call from beating number one ranked FSU.

bronxblue

November 17th, 2014 at 1:28 PM ^

We don't know how all of these systems compute their numbers; Sagarin and others have proprietary systems and admit that there are some initial biases built in simply to create a starting point but in totality the system should result in an unbiased ranking.  And I'm sure they do their best to minimize these early-season rankings and last-year results, but it is an imperfect system.  And some ranking systems, including those included in the playoff, do take polls into account.  My point was more heavily focused on the polls, which absolutely do display this bias (witness nothing more than A&M still getting a top-25 vote after their 3-week decimation taht ended with Alabama beating them by 59).

As for inter-conference titles, looking at 8-10 non-Baby Seal U OOC games tand trying to divine much from that has always felt like a weakness of these systems - Miss. St. didn't play anyone out of conference, but because LSU beat Wiscy they get a benefit?  I know that's a bit simplistic, but the general sentiment holds up.

I get that you think the SEC is better than I do; that's fine.  But you aren't going to convince me that there seems to be some baked-in inconsistencies with the rankings, especially given the fact that the various "objective" rankings have significant variances at the top as well.  It's an imperfect system, but I'm just taking issue with the fact that the current crop of SEC teams seem to be getting the benefit of the doubt because of past success and not the current product on the field.

alum96

November 18th, 2014 at 6:34 AM ^

I think the level of QB play is down and that is the one thing missing from the SEC right now.  I think there is a lot of depth in the SEC - Arkansas until this weekend was winless and I contend they could beat Nebraska and give Wiscy a run for the money.  So by definition they could give the 2nd place team in the conference a run for the money (and in my opinion win 4 out of 10 times) and they are something like the SEC's 8th place team.  If the SEC had their normal array of QBs, the conference would be at their normal level but overall it's a very good conference with a lot of depth.   South Carolina and A&M are down this year so in steps Ole Miss and Miss State.  If that had not happened I'd say it was a down year for the conference.

Put another way, I think about 5 teams in the SEC could beat FSU at least 5 out of 10 times and Clemson 7 out of 10 times.  I think about 5 teams in the SEC could beat OSU at least 5 out of 10 times and Wisconsin 7 out of 10 times.   Oregon is a little different case in the Pac 12 but take the 2nd best team in the Pac 12 (ASU for argument purposes) and again 5-6 teams would beat ASU (and I'm a Todd Graham fan) more than 5x.   TCU and Baylor would compete better in the Big 12 but then the 3rd place team in that conf is KSU who hosted Auburn (not one of the top 3 teams in the SEC) and lost. 

So where are the host of teams in another conference who will be better than the SEC's top 5 teams?  I am going thru the 2nd/3rd place team in every conference and most would get waxed.   Yes Miss State got held by Bama's defense for much of the game but they themselves had a pretty good defense.  I'd take a top 4 of Bama, Miss State, Ole Miss (with Treadwell healthy), Georgia (with Gurley healthy) and go play the top 4 of any other conference.  Then I'd take the Auburns, LSUs, Arkansas, A&M, Missouri as slots 5 thru 9 and go match that up with any conference. 

It's the depth of conference that makes a conference hard IMO not necessarily the top dog.  If you are a top 3 team in the Big 10 you go to PSU or UM or Northwestern or Purdue or Maryland (teams in the 5th to 9th slots) and MOST OF the time you can be flat and still get out of there with a win, albeit a close on.  See OSU v PSU.  If you go flat into LSU or A&M or Missouri you can lose by 20.  That's the man difference I see.  Most upsets happen on the road to a semi quality but not great team when you sleepwalk.  Only the Pac 12 and the SEC do I see an array of teams that are like that and can truly pose danger.  That's where the depth is.

Long story short - yes the very top is not as elite as it has been but the week to week grind there - even in the East when you have to crossover 2x a year, is difficult.   Tennessee is very mediocre (maye 10th or 11th in the SEC) but hell in the Big 10 they'd probably be Minnesota level - and Minnesota right now is the 5th best team we can offer.  In the ACC it would be say Miami or Boston College type of team as the 5th.  Only the Pac 12 and Big 12 would I feel confident in thinking their 5th place team would beat TN more than 5x out of 10.  That's the difference.

Mgoscottie

November 17th, 2014 at 6:15 AM ^

hate watching?  I'm so sick of having people ask if I'd rather see michigan state or ohio state win.  I feel like that's been every year for three or four years now.

Everyone Murders

November 17th, 2014 at 9:47 AM ^

I agree with your position on Frank Clark, and I too was put off by the shrill reaction it got from some on the boards this weekend.  The reports that came out this morning sure make it look like he should get booted from the team, but that doesn't change the fact that people were very quick to judge based on scant (at the time) evidence.

But I thought one of your "Worst" entries would be the odd fact that Michigan Football managed to lose (i.e., the Clark abomination) on a bye-week.  As you rightly underscore, this is about Clark, not Hoke or the program.  But still, how very 2014 that the football team managed to lose face and gain notoriety on a bye week.

charblue.

November 17th, 2014 at 2:18 PM ^

And  he had just finished one of his best games ever at Michigan, his coda contest, as it turns out. And nobody should feel bad for him losing control, except to wonder why. It's pretty shallow to put this in the category of thinking bad karma in a bad season. But that's just the way we react. 

Hoke responded quickly and appropriately and the blog reaction reflects that view. 

There was a lot of knuckleheaded comments in the immediate reaction coming out of Ohio because Ohio. But Frank Clark was living on probation and and he and everyone else knew that. In his situation, you don't celebrate recovery,  you make it your career aim.

Hopefully, he hasn't severely harmed a woman he apparently has family ties with. And we can only pray and hope he straightens himself out. 

When you leave the sanctuary of the campus environment, you are subject to the whim of your own precarious nature. And when you are living on probation, you can't afford to fail yourself.