BBall Minutes - 2009/2010
It is REALLY early to start looking ahead to next season for the basketball team, but after such a successful turnaround this year it is hard not to get excited for the future. I thought I'd take a first look at how the minutes are going to break down for next season.
First, let's make some assumptions:
-- Manny and Deshawn do not go to the NBA.
-- We'll ignore any possibility of injury for this excercise and assume that Cronin is healthy.
-- The incoming freshmen are all eligible and remain committed.
Now let's talk minutes:
-- Manny and Deshawn will play the same number of minutes as this past season.
-- Douglass has shown he can play D, hit some shots, and will probably get some minutes even at PG next year. Let's assume his minutes stay the same.
-- Gibson showed some spunk in the tournament, but given the influx of height next year I'll assume his minutes stay about the same. They might go up slightly, but that's about it.
-- Despite his great game against OK, Wright will struggle to get off the bench.
-- Merritt, Lee, and Douglass give up all their minutes.
(I can't figure out how to insert a graphic, so sorry in advance for the crappy formatting)
NAME:_______2009 MIN___2010 MIN?
Harris__________33________33
Sims___________31________31
Douglass________23________23
Gibson_________12________12
Wright_________10________10
Lee____________16________xx
Merritt_________14________xx
Shepherd_______10________xx
Novak__________28________24
Lucas Perry_____18________22
Grady__________18________15
I made the assumption that Novak would get fewer minutes since there is more height coming in and he'll spend less time at the four.
I made the assumption that LLP will improve, play a little point, and boost his minutes a little.
But what do you do at with Grady? I think he'll start the season as the primary PG until Morris is ready. But given how much he was glued to the bench lately I suspect he'll be used sparingly. I put him at 15.
If you add all of that up, you're looking at 44mpg that are currently unused for next year. Where do they go? Here's my theory:
Morris = 18 (Eventually he'll start and get minutes)
Cronin = 10 (Year of experience, size, D, rebounding)
Vogrich = 10 (Lot of SG candidates, so he'll only get a small dose)
That leaves about six minutes left. I expect that to go to either McLimans or Morgan. I can't see either playing more than some garbage time next year and it makes sense to redshirt one of them. I think they'll duel it out in camp to see who gets the redshirt.
What does everyone think?
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:35 AM ^
I think this is as good an estimate as any. I think it's really anyone's guess exactly how the lineup will look next year. Manny and Deshawn are obviously the two absolutes.
Here's my guess:
I agree I think Grady probably starts the year starting PG and ultimately splits time with Morris. Ideally Morris ends up good enough to take the reins by the end of the year but that's a huge "if". Yes, I realize there was no actual mention of the word "if" in that sentence.
Also ideally Deshawn spends most of his time at the 4, next year, about 30 minutes a game. Hopefully Gibson/Cronin/Mclimans/Morgan can eat up the rest of the 4/5 minutes so Novak really only plays a little bit of it if at all. In this situation Novak mostly backs up Manny at the 3ish position. I think he ends up up with about 12-13 minutes again, 10 to spell Manny and a few more random "you're-the-glue-guy" minutes. I love Wright for his NCAA tourney performance but I just don't know how he's gonna see the court except in times that someone at the 3 or 4 is playing badly.
At the 2, it'll probably just be a "who's hot" carousel. Both LLP and Stu can play a little bit of PG as well. Neither are really whole game starters but I think Stu will probably start like he did most of this year. Vogrich sounds like a higher touted version of Stu, so I would expect him to steal some minutes. Stu and LLP will have about as many minutes as this year because they can both play the 1 for short spurts of time.
At the 1, Grady will I think almost certainly start the year, but ideally Morris takes over eventually. To start the year they will probably split minutes. The problem is from what I hear, Morris' problem is making stupid decisions, something Beilein will obviously not like. If Morris is not mature enough then more minutes at the 1 will go LLP or Stu because I don't see Beilein giving Grady too many more minutes. If this happens look for Vogrich to pick up more minutes at the 2.
Ultimately I think Puls, Wright, and Corey Person will be the garbage minute guys. I agree that either Morgan or Mclimans will be redshirted. My guess is Mclimans cus that guys is just way too thin and I see Morgan at least as someone that can contribute with rebounding
Novak seems to be a tough one to figure out. I've seen lots of people already predicting that he is the odd man out. But I think they are wrong. JB has already demonstrated this year that he will not play someone just because they are tall. Novak will play 25 minutes a game again next year and my guess is those minutes will come from playing at the 4, 3, and 2. Probably in that order.
Cronin will play I'm sure (how well, who the heck knows), but I think McLimans and Morgan will be complete non-factors next year. I would bet both those guys red-shirt. McLimans won't be better at anything than Novak, so he's out. The only two things that Morgan might be better at is rebounding and man to man defense (because he seems thick) but that is not guaranteed. Rebounding is NOT just about being tall and playing good defense is also not just about being tall! This year JB demonstrated that he prefers less on the defensive side to less on the offensive side. Morgan will be way less on the offensive side and, my guess is, only marginally better on the defensive side.
Project big men like McLimans and Morgan do not just step into major minutes when they reach college (only if the team is desperate and we are NOT desperate! We did pretty damn well this year.). I don't want to be mean to either of these guys because I think they will have great careers here, but they are not exactly Kevin Love entering college.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:04 AM ^
How would the offense work if Sims spends most of his time at the 4? I agree that our defense would be much better, but would our offense?
Sims has a great 3-pt shot for a big man. If he plays at the 4 he'll be out on the wing. Can he make great backdoor cuts and lots of 3s?
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:57 AM ^
I think Novak's minutes will go down slightly because they'll have enough height that he doesn't have to play as much 4 against teams like Wisconsin or OSU where they are just too tall. On top of that, you're not going to sub him for Manny more, though he'll get minutes at the 3. And at the 2 you're still going to have Stu and LLP plus the addition of Vogrich.
The bottom line is that Novak will get his minutes, probably 20-22 per game, because he hustles and does all of the little things. I suspect that to start the season he'll still start at the four. But in the end I think his minutes go down slightly.
As I said in my prediction, I think either Morgan or McLimans will get a very small spattering of minutes next year and the other will redshirt. If I had to guess they'll redshirt McLimans since he probably can't play D and they don't really need another shooter. What they'll need is someone to play in the post and give up some fouls to big teams.
It sounds like we all agree that Stu and LLP will get small doses of play at PG, Grady will be given a shot to start the season, and everyone hopes Morris is good enough to take over. We'll see. We started two unhearlded freshmen this year - can we start a star freshman next year?
The real interesting thing is whether JB will continue to use the undersized starting lineup next year or replace Novak with Gibson so that they match-up more conventionally.
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