Evidently someone decided to build a state-of-the-art resort in the Bahamas, complete with a casino, water park, and something called a Dolphin Cay. They named it Atlantis – originally created by Plato as an allegorical state in the distant Atlantic, and eventually becoming prominent in popular culture, often as “a fabled lost utopia / dystopia, often described as sinking due to man’s hubris and descent into decadence” (per TV tropes). Maybe the folks that run this Atlantis mega-resort / Carribean wonderland understand the irony of the name.

They’ve started an annual college basketball tournament, typically one that features some of the country’s elite programs – it’s surrealist basketball, played in a ballroom with the crowd bathed in a gloomy royal blue glow. This year, it’s a good field with intriguing possible matchups, the headliners being two opening-round contests between in-state rivals (Gonzaga vs. Washington and Texas vs. Texas A&M), and possible semi-final matchups between Syracuse and either UConn or Michigan (the former would be a reprise of a prominent regional rivalry in the old Big East, the latter would be the 2013 Final 4 rematch / Tyus Battle Classic).

Probabilities are derived from a log5 analysis of the Pythagorean rating on Kenpom (the probabilities were run at the completion of Tuesday’s games); the # next to the team name is their Kenpom Rank (out of 351 D-1 teams)

Ace will do a traditional game preview for the contest against UConn later this afternoon, but I’ll give a brief rundown of Michigan’s potential opponents on days two and three in the Bahamas. Blurbs on each of the other six teams are after the jump.

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Forward Kyle Wiltjer

#7 Gonzaga Bulldogs

25% chance of facing Michigan

Since Mark Few took over Gonzaga in 1999, the Bulldogs have been one of the nation’s premier mid-major programs; they’ve made the NCAA Tournament in each of Few’s 16 seasons and should be a near-lock to make it again this year. They’re ostensibly the best team in the Battle 4 Atlantis field, and it’s because of their three prominent frontcourt players:

• Kyle Wiltjer – senior stretch 4. The former Kentucky transfer has found a home at Gonzaga; he shot 47% on 144 three-point attempts and 57% on 296 two-point attempts last year. He was 9th nationally in Offensive Rating. Wiltjer just gets buckets, and is an All-American candidate.
• Pryzemek Karnowski – junior rim-protecting 5. Karnowski, a Polish national, is extremely efficient on offense (almost 60% for his career on field goal attempts mostly near the rim), but he’s also surprisingly skilled on offense and more mobile than he looks on defense.
• Domantas Sabonis – sophomore traditional 4. The son of former Lithuanian NBA star Arvydas Sabonis, Domantas was a surprisingly advanced prospect for his age as a freshman. Though he mostly shot in the paint area, he shot the tenth-highest percentage nationally on twos (66% on 209 attempts).

All three of those players shared all the available minutes at the four and five down the stretch last season for the Zags and all are back again this year – Wiltjer and Karnowski would be a lethal combination in and of itself, but adding Sabonis for energy and foul insurance gives Gonzaga one of the best bench bigs in the country. If Michigan hypothetically plays the Bulldogs, they’ll likely have to dip into their reserves, as it will have been the third game in three games for both teams. Still, with Jalen Reynolds’s success inside in the last game the Wolverines played, a matchup with Gonzaga would be a ridiculously tough test for U-M’s corps of bigs.

This year, Gonzaga’s yet to play anyone of consequence, so we’re forced to turn to a profile of how Few’s teams have traditionally performed: in recent years especially, Gonzaga’s success has been derived from its ability to keep its eFG% high – in each of the last three years, it’s been top 10 nationally – on offense; the Zags are above average at the other three of the four factors on the offensive end and, while Karnoswki is an intimidator on the defensive end, the Zags have been better on offense than defense in 13 of the 14 seasons under Few in the Kenpom database.

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Guard Alex Caruso

#29 Texas A&M Aggies

28% chance of playing Michigan

Despite not having made the NCAA Tournament during his tenure so far in College Station, head coach Billy Kennedy has managed to turn things around for the Aggies; through his first four seasons, they were 119th, 105th, 121st, and 62nd nationally. Despite winning 20 regular season games and finishing roughly in the range of teams that can make the NCAA Tournament in year four (2015), A&M dropped a bad loss to Auburn in the first round of the SEC Tournament and was relegated to the NIT.

This year’s Kenpom rank (29th) is easily the highest of the Kennedy era and though it’s mostly derived from preseason projections at this point, A&M hasn’t done anything on the court to dispute that ranking, dispatching four early opponents with predictable ease. Impressively, the Kenpom MVP in the four early games were split between Tommy Trocha-Morelos, a Colombian stretch-4 and Tyler Davis, a freshman post player. Those two will be relied on to anchor the Aggie frontcourt, but could face problems in the event of a possible matchup with Gonzaga, of course.

In terms of known commodities in College Station, there are three perimeter players who have already logged plenty of career minutes:

• Alex Caruso – senior high-assist lead-guard. At 6’5, Caruso presents matchup problems for opposing point guards; in three complete seasons at A&M, he posted assist rates of 27.9, 36.7, and 34.8. The latter two numbers (his sophomore and junior seasons) were good enough for the top 30 nationally.
• Anthony Collins – senior pass-first point. A graduate transfer from USF, Collins was one of the prominent players for the Bulls; he posted terrific assist rates in Tampa, but only took 798 shot equivalents in 100 games for the Bulls despite often running the offense and playing heavy minutes.
• Danuel House – senior high-volume wing. House was also a transfer (a former 5* prospect who initially enrolled at Houston). He started nearly every game he was healthy for in 2015, posting scoring totals of 28, 25, 22, 21, and 20 (twice) last year in his first season as an Aggie.

Also of note: power forward Jalen Jones, one of the most high-usage players in the SEC last season, will be available for the first time in the regular season in the Bahamas.

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Not a real big fan of this guy, to be honest

#35 Syracuse Orange

46% chance of facing Michigan

Under Jim Boeheim, Syrcause is a program that needs little introduction – no prominent college basketball program has so completely shaped the 2-3 zone defense into the team’s identity and Boeheim has been one of college hoops’s most successful coaches during his tenure at the helm in Syracuse (he’s also been followed by allegations of recruiting and academic impropriety and is suspended for half of ACC play this season because of cheating that apparently couldn’t be traced back to him well enough to get him removed completely as head coach).

This corps of Orange is largely devoid of their customary prospective NBA talent, but true freshman and high 4* wing Malachi Richardson could  be a player to watch at the next level. It’s a roster largely in transition from the one Michigan saw in Ann Arbor a year ago – the center platoon of Rakeem Christmas and Chris McCullough is gone to the NBA. DaJuan Coleman has returned from a season-long injury to hold down that critical center spot for the Orange, but he’s been injured for most of his career. Other notable returnees are Trevor Cooney (a senior who’s taken 595 career three-point attempts for Syracuse already) and Michael Gbinije, a wing with a surprisingly great assist rate.

Playing against the 2-3 is very different from most contests, as opponents are forced to adopt almost a completely different zone-busting offense. By tracing Boeheim’s average defensive four factors since 2002, we can give a decent picture of how the Cuse defense operates:

“15 Rank” is where the stat would have ranked nationally in 2015

The biggest takeaway – confirmed by the eye-test – is that the statistical impact of the 2-3 zone defense is that it leads to impressive field goal defense and turnover creation while sacrificing the ability to clear the defensive glass. Also of note: Syrcause typically allows one of the lowest opponent 3PA/FGA and assist rate numbers.

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Head Coach Shaka Smart

#43 Texas Longhorns

28% chance of facing Michigan

After a few years as one of the hottest mid-major coaching prospects in the country, Shaka Smart finally decided to take his talents – and his signature defense, a suffocating series of press and trap defenses known as “Havoc” – to Austin, Texas. It was an interesting move for a coach who could have theoretically had his pick of open jobs anywhere in college basketball, but Texas should have less pressure to succeed immediately than a blue-blood like UCLA, who was also rumored to have targeted Smart.

He built VCU into one of the prominent mid-major programs in the country and experienced both regular season and NCAA Tournament success with the Rams. The Rick Barnes era ended ignominiously after years of underachieving, so the Longhorns hope Smart is able to quickly inject some life into the program.

Even though UT is undergoing a dramatic scheme change, there are a few familiar faces from last season as four seniors and a junior have played starter minutes this year. Smart has played 11 guys in the two games Texas has had thus far; the rotation will likely remain very deep, but there are a few key players who have already played a lot of basketball for the Longhorns:

• Isaiah Taylor – inefficient junior drive-and-dish point guard. Taylor has received some hype for his exploits at UT, but the stats paint a different story: in two years of significant PT, he shot 41% on two-point FGA and doesn’t have a three-point shot. Notably, he played far less as a sophomore than he did as a freshman.
• Cameron Ridley – senior offensive rebounding / shot-blocking post. Ridley will be forced to be extremely active on the defensive end to receive PT in Smart’s system, but he has appealing physical attributes: he posted top-5 offensive rebounding and block rates in the Big XII in each of the last two seasons.
• Javan Felix – undersized senior combo guard. Another Longhorn who’s now facing a possible reduction in PT after playing heavy minutes under Barnes, Felix is a poor complement to Isaiah Taylor; like Taylor, he’s a very poor two-point shooter, but he doesn’t add much in terms of passing. Felix does have a semi-reliable three-point shot.

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#97 Washington

19% chance of facing Michigan

Interestingly, Washington has already faced another member of the Battle 4 Atlantis field: Yao Ming decided to hold a college basketball showcase in Shanghai and in that game, the Huskies defeated Texas 77-71. Aside from Michigan’s loss to Xavier, this is the only valuable data point with a team from the field in it; however, we can question exactly how much a basketball game held on the other side of the world – and a season-opener at that – tells us about either team. The teams combined for 88 free throw attempts in that game. They made just 5-35 three-point attempts combined.

Washington’s biggest storyline entering the season is their large freshman class – four started in that game against Texas and two more came off the bench for significant playing time. The two headliners in the class are Dejounte Murray and Marquese Chriss. Their high school highlight videos are below:

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Former Gonzaga Bulldog / Charlotte resident Adam Morrison

#279 Charlotte 49ers Ghost Bobcats

54% chance of facing Michigan

Michigan actually faced Charlotte two years ago in Puerto Rico; the Wolverines suffered their worst loss of the season in their third game in three days. U-M went on to win the Big Ten by three games and advance to the Elite Eight… but they lost to the 49ers. Several players on Michigan’s current roster played in that game, but none of the players who saw minutes in that game for Charlotte remain on the roster even just two years later.

They’re breaking in a new coach as well: after Alan Majors was sadly forced to step down because of health issues, Charlotte decided to hire Mark Price (yes, four-time All-Star point guard with the Cleveland Cavaliers Mark Price), most recently a former assistant coach with the Charlotte Hornets. Price also coached in Charlotte when the NBA franchise still sported the awful “Bobcats” nickname; metaphysical order was restored to the North Carolina hoops universe when the “Hornets” nickname returned – historically the Hornets have been average (winning percentage of 49%), and the Bobcats were always mediocre-at-best (36%).

This year’s 49ers squad – ranked just 279th in Kenpom, the 11th-best team in Conference-USA (the nation’s 19th-best) – tends towards the “Bobcat” end of the spectrum. Charlotte and Michigan have had a common opponent thus far: U-M beat Elon by 20 at home, UNCC lost to Elon by 11 at home. This preview assumes that a potential matchup between the two would come in the event of a Michigan loss to UConn – putting even more importance on that game from the Wolverines’ perspective. Facing the Ghost Bobcats is a no-win scenario, as a loss would qualify as a catastrophic upset and a win might actually hurt Michigan’s RPI.

Mark Price has only spent three games as a head coach, he splits most of the minutes at the four between 6’4 or 6’3 guys, and just two of his nine rotation players even played for Charlotte a season ago. At this point, they’re almost a complete unknown. Perhaps in time Price will build something more approximating the Hornets; for now, he’s stuck with the Ghost Bobcats.

Ed Note: Gonzaga defeated Washington 80-64 earlier this afternoon.