Basketball Off-season Outlook (UPDATED)

UPDATE - Since the team got a huge makeover within hours of me posting it, I thought I'd make some update in the wake of the three transfers.  I've updated the table with thoughts on the transfers and what it means for the other players.  At the very end I have some thoughts on recruiting needs.  As for Burke, if he leaves for the NBA (an unwise decision in my mind) then you can burn this piece and ask Illinois fans how it feels to miss the NIT because that's where we'd be headed without a single ball-handler. 

Brian stole a lot of my thunder with his comprehensive game recap before I could get this posted, but I think there’s enough to discuss here that the post is still worth doing. 

I considered breaking this long post up into in a series of smaller posts, but I suspect that there will soon be a flood of “looking toward next year” content in the Michigan blogsphere so I might as well get it all in now to launch that discussion. 

I think there are three parts to any premature basketball preview and I’ll cover two of them here – player summaries and biggest off-season questions.  The third, conference outlook, has to wait until the dust settles on the NCAA Tournament and the NBA draft deadline passes.  Without further ado, let’s get started - which means….

Oh boy – not another alter ego voice.

Yep, that’s right – much like Temptation without War Chant you can’t have a long diary on MGoBlog without an alter ego chiming in. 

Does that also mean we need a…..

…..Chart?  Yes, yes we do.  Below is a chart full of player summaries that touches on two critical aspects of the 2012-2013 season:  what should the player be working on over the summer and what is a realistic outlook for their role next year? 

Wow – that was a lot of reading and a lot to digest.  Let’s break it down into some critical team areas now.

What is the biggest reason for optimism heading into the off-season?

Simply put – Trey Burke.  He will be a contender for conference player of the year and would likely be on his way to the NBA lottery if he were a measly 3 inches taller.  He should fill the leadership role vacated by Douglas and Novak well and gives us a chance to win every game we play. 

UPDATE:  Try not to think about him leaving....it will just make you cry.

Having depth and recruiting talent will make the season interesting, but Burke will ultimately determine how far this team goes.  He had an amazing freshman year, but there is still a lot of room for growth on both ends of the court.  Solving the various high-screen defenses he saw will allow him to be more dominant and open up more opportunities for his teammates.

What is the biggest reason for concern?

This is a more complex thing to address, but allow me to answer in the form of a question – who is the second ball handler on the team next year? 

Wait – I ask get to answer a question for a change?  Okay – I’ll say…..uh….hmm….that freshman with the funny name? 

Nik Stauskas is the one you’re thinking of, and he’s a popular choice.  But he’s a freshman and is also 6’6” tall.  When was the last time you saw a good ball handler taller than 6’4” at Michigan?  Jalen Rose 20 years ago? 

In my opinion, finding someone to handle the ball besides Burke is the biggest concern going into next year.  Douglas (and to a much lesser extent Novak) filled that role perfectly and Michigan doesn’t have a back-up point guard stashed on its bench.   Maybe Stauskas will be the answer we’re all hoping for, or maybe Hardaway and Vogrich will improve their handles well enough to fill this role, or maybe Brundidge makes a huge leap forward – hopefully someone does.  Otherwise opponents will just press full court and double Burke until someone else shows they can handle the ball.    

UPDATE: Did I mention that thinking about Burke leaving would make you cry?

Who is the most important player next year (besides Burke)?

Obviously Burke comes first because we’ve established that there is no other option to run the offense and he’s so sensational.  It may also be obvious now that Stauskas, despite being the lowest rated incoming recruit, may be the next most important player on the team.  He needs to fill the 2-guard role on both ends of the floor well enough to play major minutes given the other options.   If Stauskas struggles to earn minutes, there will be a large void at the guard spot – a big problem in a guard oriented offense.

Hardaway is critical for the team to succeed, but there are other players to help when he goes into his funks.  Smotrycz needs to show that he can be a consistent threat playing his natural position and be the third scoring option for the team, but he’s already shown that to some extent and there are other options if he struggles.  McGary isn’t as important given the depth and experience at center.  Stauskas is the one player who fits nicely into the offense as the second guard and has the biggest shoes to fill.

How excited should we be for McGary?  Is this going to be like the Fisher era with Vaught, Mills, Webber, Howard, Taylor, and Traylor?  (on the court, not off)

Well, I’ve personally lowered my expectations for him and I think most fans would be wise to do the same.  From the videos I’ve seen he’ll be a great addition to the team with his size, athleticism, rebounding, and hustle…..but not an all-conference contender anytime soon.  He looks like a bigger, better version of Jordan Morgan – which is great, but not the next Webber.   I suspect he’ll be a solid contributor and play a lot of minutes but won’t stuff the stat sheet until his sophomore year. 

Wait a minute – he’s Michigan’s best recruit in a really long time and you’re bashing him?

No, I think he’ll turn out to be a great college player if he stays for2-3 years but will not make the immediate impact some are expecting.  There are several reasons:

• Big men take longer to adjust to the college game, even though he’s old for his class.
• He doesn’t yet have a jump shot that will make him versatile, making him purely a center in Beilein’s offense and not a power forward.  But Michigan’s offense doesn’t feed the post players like MSU or an NBA team would.  He’ll have to get his points like Morgan does – which is fine but limits his upside. 
• He’s stepping into a crowded center competition with two guys that know the system and have contributed in the past. 

I actually think McGary may have the smallest impact on next year’s of all the recruits given that both Stauskas and GR3 are better fits at replacing the void left by the seniors.  McGary will contribute and be fun to watch, but lower your expectations to fully enjoy it rather than wondering why he isn’t dominant.

Speaking of McGary, how is the center depth chart going to play out?

This is going to be fascinating since Beilein only historically plays one true post player and now has three players worthy of ample playing time.   Even Tom Izzo with his deep bench only plays two true centers.  I think Morgan will remain the starter for a lot of next year but I like Brian’s 15-15-10 prediction for minutes with McGary splitting equal time.  Let’s sit back and enjoy the ride – we’ll never have to worry about foul trouble, teams with a lot of height, or seeing McLimans or Smotrycz play critical minutes at center.

What do you think the rotation will be? 

I thought about predicting minutes per game, but Brian did an admirable job of that already.  Instead I’ll talk in generalities.  Here’s the rotation as I see it:

1. Burke
2. Stauskas
3. Hardaway
4. Smotrycz  GR3
5. Morgan (on a short leash)
6. GR3 (energy off the bench at the 3 or 4, replacing Stauskas or Smotrycz)
7. McGary (essentially getting starters minutes)
8. Vogrich (basically the same as this year, maybe a few more minutes at best)
9. Horford (the 3^rdstring center still averaged 8 minutes per game this year)
10. Brundidge (a few minutes spelling Burke)
11. Bielfeldt/McLimans/Christian  (suddenly one of these two needs to play a fair amount of minutes at PF)

Wow – that rotation sounds like something to be excited about! 

That’s a true 9-man rotation, dwarfing the deepest rotation Beilein has ever had at Michigan, and a few spare parts that are still viable options. 

UPDATE:  Until another recruit joins the incoming class (more below) that's still possibly a 9-man rotation if Bielfeldt steps up or McLimans plays more at PF. 

Next year is going to be a unique experience for this program with the depth, talent, leadership turnover, height, and relative youth.  The B1G will be as tough as always, but Michigan should be a contender once again, even if there are some growing pains early in the season. 

UPDATE:  So we suddenly have scholarships to offer...what should we do with them?

Obviously we should take one or maybe two guards and whoever the coaches feel is deserving of a scholarship.  There has been plenty of speculation at MGoBlog or UMHoops about players who may be available, so I won't spend too much time on specific names since no one really knows and no one has an official offer. 

What I will say is this - I want a true point guard in this class....and I don't care what their star rating is, how big they are, whether they have pro potential, or any of that stuff.  I think every team needs a back-up PG who can play 10-15 minutes per game where he runs the offense, doesn't turn the ball over, plays good defense, and hits the occassional open shot.  The kind of guy who will play four years, possibly all of them as a back-up, work his tail off, be thrilled to play for Michigan, and be a great insurance policy if the starter can't play.  Everyone needs one of these types of players and we're sorely lacking one.  Even if Burke stays another year, we still will only have one PG the following year and that person would be a true freshman. 

I can think of two perfect examples of this - Travis Trice at MSU and Stilman White at UNC.  Both were undersized 3-star recruits surrounded by higher ranked players and lacking any other major offers.  Both players stepped up with a few minutes per game when their teams needed it.  Both will be around for three more years being solid system guys.  We need one of those. 

Of all the names mentioned so far, Spike Albrectch seems like the closest fit to this role.  He's a true PG who has lead both his AAU and Prep teams to a lot of success playing a ton of minutes.  He's played with many of our two best incoming recruits.  He can hit a three pointer if left alone.  And he's essentially the same size as those two examples listed above.  Maybe there are better choices out there and if so I hope the coaches can sign them.  If not, I'd gladly welcome Spike to fill that role.