Baseball: Penn State Preview

Michigan is on the road for the Big Ten finale. With just a game separating Michigan from first place Minnesota, they'll be giving it all with the Big Ten Title on the line. The Wolverines need just one win to clinch a spot in the Big Ten Tournament, but they'll need quite a bit more to secure a coveted bye, presented to the top two teams in conference.

Brief look at the Ball State game and a Penn State preview after the jump.

About that Ball State game

Michigan took a mid-week game 16-10 against a pretty good Ball State game on Tuesday. It was yet another come from behind type victory as Michigan fell behind early with a struggling Kyle Clark and some mediocre play early. After Michigan fell behind 4-1 in the 3rd, they would see the offense explode over the next three innings. The Wolverines scored 3 in the third, 7 in the 4th, and 4 in the 5th.

Several seniors saw time late in the game including Jeff DeCarlo, who had a Jeff DeCarlo type outing (his academic prowess will be missed), Vinnie Sarafa, the bull pen catcher, and Mike Kittle who was on fire. Kittle got the start with Toth moving to short and Dennis getting the day off. Kittle went 4/5 on the day with a double, a run scored, and 2 RBI. Huge day for Mike to show that he's ready off the bench if we need him down the stretch.

Six different Wolverines had multiple hits. It was pretty ridiculous. Biondi had 3 with 3 runs, Toth had 4 with 2 runs and an RBI. LaMarre went 4/6 with 3 runs, 3 RBI, and a double while playing centerfield (for the scouts in attendance). Crank hit another homer on a 2/6 day with 6 RBI, and most notably, a very solid day playing catcher instead of DH'ing. Berset went 1/4 with 3 runs and an RBI. Lorenz with 2/5. Nick Urban had what has to be his 6th different game where he goes 1/2 with 2 walks.

It was a hit fest, but it meant nothing. Now, on to Penn State.

OMG THERE'S A PROMO VIDEO

Penn State's Season

The above graph comes from Happy Valley Hardball, the blogging home to the Nittany Lions. In the graph, you can see how Penn State's RPI has faired this season, as well as compare this season to 2008 and 2009. We're interested in the 2010 green line, currently sitting around the 170 mark (out of ~300).

So what do we see? Well, early in the season, Penn State played one of the toughest schedules in the nation. Their second and third weeks of the season were spent in Texas, taking on teams like Texas A&M and Texas State, both top 50 teams. They also took on two quality teams from the Southland Conference in McNeese State and Lamar, as well as top 100 Dallas Baptist. The problem, Penn State went 2-7 with wins over McNeese and DBU only. The next two weeks saw a split with meh opponents and a series win over Hofstra, a bad team.

Then came the Big Ten season. PSU would lose series to Illinois and Northwestern before hitting their season low, being swept by Purdue. After that, the Lions bats got hot. Penn State would take 2 of 3 from the Buckeyes in Columbus, then sweep Michigan State in Happy Valley.

Things have since normalized as Penn State has lost series to Iowa at home and were swept by Minnesota in the Metrodome. They didn't play a midweek game this week, so they enter the Michigan series on a 5-game losing streak.

Penn State on the Mound

The Penn State ace should be a vaguely familiar name for those who have followed the Big Ten over the last few years. Mike Wanamaker busted onto the Big Ten scene in 2008 as a junior, proving to be one of the best pitchers in the conference and earning 2nd Team All Big Ten as a starter. After sitting out a redshirt year in 2009 due to an arm injury, he's returned this year, picking up around where he left off. On the year, in 10 starts, he's 4-3 with 62 innings pitched. His opponent batting average is pretty high at .333, but he hasn't given up many homers (just 5) this year. His strikeout numbers also aren't what they were before his Tommy John surgery, posting just 46 on the season.

On Friday, Michigan will see Steven Hill. Hill was a reliever to start the season, but he's earned his way into the rotation. On 20 appearances this season, he's made 7 starts. In his 61 innings, he's struck out 40 and walked only 18. He also sports a high opponent batting average - .359. Hill was actually a preferred walk-on for the football team, but it's a near zero chance that he'll actually see the field there.

As for Saturday, there's no telling who will get the start. Calvin Grumley made the start in game three against Minnesota, lasting just 3 innings while giving up 3 runs on 3 hits, walking four and striking out three. The week before, Penn State's primary reliever David Lutz made only his 2nd start of the season, lasting 5 innings in an eventual Nittany Lion loss to Iowa at home; this came one week after he threw a complete game win against Michigan State in his first start of the season.

No idea who to expect, much less how good they might be in what could potentially be Penn State's last gasp to gain a BTT spot. As they say in The Waterboy, "Last game of the season, can't hold anything back."

As far as the bullpen, Lutz has been a favorite this season. He's 4-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 33 appearances stretching 65.2 innings pitched (both team highs). After that, three's several guys with plenty of appearances, most of them aren't that great statistically. Mike Pierce is 1-0 in 14 appearances with a 4.20 ERA. The rest are a hodgepodge of reliever/starter types.

Penn State at the Dish

Penn State's offense, and for that matter, it's pitching staff, are both anchored by a Johnny Bench candidate (who will lose to Chris Berset). Ben Heath has been destroying pitchers this season. He leads the Big Ten with 18 homers on the season, and is slugging a crisp .761. His on base percentage is sitting at .457, so he's sporting a 1.218 OPS - which is totally ridiculous. He has 55 RBI on the season and has scored 50 runs – both team highs. Heath's defense is also pretty good, allowing just 8 passed balls on the season as the primary catcher, but he's only thrown out about 30% of base stealers (unlike Berset who has only 4 passed balls and has caught over 40% of base stealers… BERSET FOR BENCH!).

Heath isn't alone when it comes to hard hitting Nittany Lions, though. Steve Snyder is hitting .367 on the season with 34 RBI and 30 runs scored. He's been getting on base consistently, but isn't causing a whole ton of damage. He is second on the team in steals with 12 in 16 tries. Joey DeBernardis is doing similarly, hitting .359, but he's scored 40 runs and knocked in 33. Slightly better, but not overwhelming.

Jordan Steranka is the run producer. His on base percentage is ridiculously low (.345) for being second to Heath on the team in runs scored (40). He is also second in RBIs on the team with 41.

Weather

Thursday and Friday are to be sunny with highs in the low to mid 80s. Winds are supposed to be light enough not to matter. Saturday sees the rain chances raise up to 60% and temps to drop to around 70. Winds will still be pretty light.

Series Thoughts and Prediction

Penn State is a dangerous team, even if they are in last place. They showed they could keep up with Ohio State (when they were healthy) and Michigan State (even if they Sparty No!'d this season away). They definitely are talented enough on offense to smash their way to victory when needed. Mike Wanamaker also gives them a chance to win their opener every week. I'm quite afraid he'll set a personal season high in strikeouts.

On the flip side, Michigan has all the momentum in the world right now. The Wolverines can definitely smash the ball if it comes down to a home run derby for the win. Several of Michigan's pitchers are also due for a return to the mean, but this time in a good way. Evil Katzman (Eric's evil alter-ego) got the win against Ball State. I'm still sold that he's due for a brilliant outing this weekend. The bullpen is pretty well rested, with only Wood and Katzman seeing any action (out of the regulars) during the mid-week. Kyle Clark is all but scratched from this weekend, and Ballantine may become available Saturday if needed. Hopefully we'll have a #2 seed clinched by then, in which case, get the young guys some time.

Speaking of clinching a bye, I'm predicting a Michigan series victory 2-1, however, I'm not sure that's good enough for a bye. Purdue is playing Iowa this weekend, and if Iowa can't steal a game, Michigan could potentially fall into third place behind the Boilermakers and Minnesota. I'd love to pick Jarred Hippen to take a win from Purdue, but going up against Matt Bischoff is no easy task. Minnesota has tough pickings against Ohio State (with Alex Wimmers), but they hold the tie breaker over Michigan in the head-to-head win.

Weekend Rooting Interests:

• Iowa over Purdue
• Ohio State to take at least 2 from Minnesota
• Northwestern and Michigan State not to sweep each other
• Illinois over Indiana. I don't want to face Indiana in the BTT