Baseball: Ohio State Notes

The Buckeyes come to Ann Arbor this weekend with the rivals tied for first place in the Big Ten. The stakes are huge. The winner is in the driver's seat for the regular season championship and a number one seed in the Big Ten Tournament. The loser could conceivably fall as far back as a tie for 7th place if the cards fall the wrong way.

As an added bonus, Michigan will be celebrating the career of Barry Larkin. His #16 jersey will be added to the walls of the Fish, where it shall remain forever retired into Michigan lore.

Final notes and thoughts after the jump:

Key Matchup

I don't think I have to remind too many of the loyal baseball followers of what happened last season. Much like Iowa last weekend, Michigan faced off in a double header to open the series and was destroyed in game one by Alex Wimmers. Wimmers threw the first 9-inning no hitter in Ohio State history, and the first against Michigan since 1982.

Wimmers is just as good this year, but behind him, Rucinski and Wolosiansky both have their weaknesses. As discussed in the VEQ, Rucinski is battling a pair of blisters on his fingers. Wolosiansky is also a high WHIP guy. Michigan must take advantage of the weak back end of the Buckeye pitching staff.

On the flip side, Michigan must pitch better than they have. Alan Oaks can't leave he rest of the bullpen hanging with a short start. We've got a talented bullpen, but not all of them are that experienced. This will be one of the better lineups we've seen in a while, and they just don't strikeout much.

Thoughts

I'm interested to see if there are any tweaks to the starting rotation or not. The game notes were unclear on who would be starting, but I'm not sure if that had more to do with them getting out earlier than normal or what. Whoever we throw on Friday has their work cut out for them. They may need to go 7+ innings and give up less than 2 runs just to keep Michigan in the game. Wimmers may have thrown 132 pitches last week, but I don't expect that to affect his game this week.

Also, on the pitching front, it'll be interesting how much Maloney plays the numbers on left handed pitchers versus left handed batters. Bob Todd is notorious for forcing his line up to hit R-L-R-L at all cost. He'll do that for as many batters as he can. Will Maloney burn up Katzman for a batter? Will we see, dare I say, All-Academic Jeff DeCarlo used for a batter? Scary thoughts there.

Derek Dennis is supposedly back for this weekend. This puts Kittle back into the lead pinch hitting role and the line up back to "normal." This is for the best in the long run. Hopefully the time off has given Dennis a chance to relax. Hopefully Barry can give him a pep talk as well.

Weather

Game One and two should be picture perfect. As far as reality though, those SSW winds should come in toward the end of the game and man, are they shaping up to be fierce. That's probably from left to right cross wind, but it may end up being straight in from left. As if Alex Wimmers needed any more help. Hopefully he's well out of the game before that happens.

The weather should be fine for the Saturday night cap. There's a system blowing through in the morning, and it should be clear by 4pm. Sunday, well, Sunday might be rough. Heavy rain is supposed to last most of the day. I wouldn't be surprised if they try to sneak a double header in somewhere, but I wouldn't be surprised if Bob Todd quashes that idea either.

Predictions

For the last four or five weeks, I've dreaded this series. The Buckeyes were finally waking up. Their pitchers were getting in stride. Their lineup finally solidified. The black hole on defense that was Hallberg is stricken to the bench. It just wasn't looking good.

Over the last week and a half, my pessimism has cut down considerably. I'm still not confident in our starting pitching at the moment, but I think I'm equally unimpressed with the OSU Saturday and Sunday starters. Even Eric Best has been a bit rough around the edges lately. That inevitable sweep I was thinking about 3 weeks ago is not the image I have in my head right now.

What I do still have stuck in my head though is an ugly loss on Friday. Alan Oaks gave me nothing to be confident about last week. Alex Wimmers is a first round draft pick. I think that match up all but seals a loss in game one, featuring no less than 9 Wimmers strikeouts.

I like the chances on Saturday. Michigan will host Larkin and a plethora of Michigan alumni. If that doesn't fire up the troops after a potential hard loss, I don't know what will. Brosnahan may have had a rough start last time out, but I think this type of game would be great for him. He's got plenty of left handed hitters to work through and the fan support should keep his emotions on track. I'll take a Michigan win, with a fairly high score (12-7 range).

Sunday is chaos. I don't think we see Burgoon start as we're almost assuredly going to need him on Saturday, or possibly even Friday. That leaves Katzman, Sinnery, or Miller as the potential starter, and I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see Katzman. I'm having flashbacks of Indiana already. I have to agree with Chris from the VEQ. This could easily be a 14-11 type game favoring either team.

On the other hand, Ohio State will be using Wolosiansky and McKinney, a pitcher who threw 5 innings on Wednesday (pulled with a no-hitter). I like our chances against both of them.

Dare I predict it? Michigan wins the series 2-1.

I can't believe I just did that.

Beat the Buckeyes.