Nice report. I read and like Rogers' stuff on college baseball, but his program specific reports are understandably superficial. Thanks for adding some color and depth to his report. Keep up the good work. Less than three months until season begins. One team. One goal. Omaha!
Baseball: KR's 5 Keys
Kendall Rogers (KR) is probably the top journalist (depending on how you classify Sorenson) when it comes to the national college baseball circuit. Rogers works primarily for Yahoo! Sports now, and runs the "Destination: Omaha" blog, similar to "Doctor Saturday" in the college football world.
In KR's most recent post, he examined the keys to Michigan bouncing back. In the opening paragraphs, or in many cases, stand alone sentences with little or no meaning (a personal pet peeve of mine in sports writing), he discusses Michigan's past few years with a pretty solid overview, discussing our success in 2007, our fall short in 2008, and the drop off in 2009.
In this post, I'm going to delve a bit deeper into his five keys, and attempt to cover the keys I find a bit more important. KR does a good job of summarizing programs, but he really doesn't have the expertise or in depth knowledge to really comment, and I'm hoping I can help supplement his descriptions.
His first key:
Forget about last season -- It seems we've had to say this about many teams the past few weeks, but Michigan joins the list of teams that needs to move on and forget about what transpired last season. The Wolverines welcome back a plethora of seasoned players both at the plate and on the mound. To say the least, this team will be ready to play in the spring. Personally, I think it'll be interesting to see how motivated this team will be. Knowing coach Rich Maloney as well I do, this club likely will be very fun to watch. Don't look for a letdown from the Wolverines.
That's about as vanilla as you can get. Yes, last year was unimpressive, I get that. But forgetting about it isn't really the answer. If anything, I think KR hit a bigger nerve with me when he mentioned the motivation of the team. Michigan was one of the most talented teams in the Big10 last year, but they continually struggled against some of the lower tier teams. I sometimes wondered just how motivated the guys were, but that's something I don't know about either.
There were stretches during the season in 2009 where I wondered if the guys just got down and couldn't pick it back up. Be it injuries, no one really solidifying third base, a depleted bullpen, whatever it was, I kept waiting for us to get a spark last year. That spark never came, and I felt like perhaps that was an indication that the team wasn't motivated enough. That was just my feeling, and I welcome the opinion of those who saw more games in person. I just know something was missing there.
Moving to key two:
Replace ace pitcher Chris Fetter, weekend rotation must reload -- The Wolverines have the tough chore of replacing ace pitcher Chris Fetter in the spring. Fetter started 13 games last season and compiled a 3.26 ERA in 94 innings. He also struck out 103 and walked 17 and limited opposing teams to a .257 batting average. Michigan welcomes back a pair of starting pitchers in Eric Katzman and Travis Smith. Katzman started 14 games last season and had a 3.53 ERA in 74 innings. He also struck out 64 and walked 41 and limited teams to a .248 batting average. Smith, meanwhile, started eight games and tallied a 4.50 ERA in 50 innings. Teams hit .333. The Wolverines are in good shape if this unit rises to the occasion.
That's also another obvious one, and one I'm not sure the Wolverines are going to be able to answer. To say last year's weekend rotation was disappointing would be an understatement.
Eric Katzman was a marginal number two starter compared to the last few seasons at Michigan. He was almost so inconsistent that his inconsistency became consistent. It seemed, as the season went along, that dubious "Evil Katzman" showed up every third week. Those "Evil Katzman" moments generally lead to a 3.2 inning start with 3 walks and 4+ runs. In the two weeks of non-evil, Katzman tended to make it about 5-6 innings and only 2-3 runs. That's alright, but his overall season really taxed our bullpen. By season's end, he would be demoted to the third starter. Katzman's summer was cut short due to an injury, I believe to his collar bone. He hadn't been pitching well in his few appearances there either. It'll be interesting if he can keep a solid hold on his rotation spot this season, and I think he'll still be a pretty solid number 2 or 3 pitcher for us.
Travis Smith was promising to start the season, but he just couldn't hack it by the time Big10 play rolled around. He was replaced by a few different experiments, including Kolby Wood, Brandon Sinnery, and most notably Alan Oaks. Wood and Sinnery were promoted up from the mid-week starter role on occasion to pitch on Sundays, primarily in an effort to split the Sunday game between two pitchers (one would throw 5 innings, the other 4 innings). This didn't work out all to well either, leaving the weak part of our bullpen to try and soak up more innings on back-to-back days.
When this failed, Maloney tried Alan Oaks back on the mound. Oaks had some success previously on the mound, mostly in high school, but also in relief during the 2007 NCAA run. Oaks ended up being the most effective pitcher (other than Fetter) to close the season, generally lasting 6 to 7 innings, saving the bullpen. He also did really well this summer, and he's one who I think has the best shot of taking Fetter's ace role. He's got a hard fastball and a pretty good slider.
After Oaks and Katzman, it's anybody's race for the 3rd starting spot. I think my preliminary guesses are Sinnery or Smith. Smith struggled mightily this summer in the Texas Collegiate League, but his fastball is just hard to pass up. Sinnery is still young, and I just haven't seen him throw enough as a starter to give him a nod just yet.
One of the hunches I've had for a while is we see a return of Tyler Burgoon to the rotation. Burgoon, our top closer over the last year and a half, started his career in the Michigan mid-week starting role half way through the 2008 season. He had some success there before being converted to a setup man and then closer. Burgoon has a couple good pitches, including a fastball, slider, changeup, and split fingered fastball (Quag, anything I'm missing?).
As for Kolby Wood, I wouldn't be surprised to see him make the transition to the closer role. He's developed a palm/changeup like pitch that has been devastating batters over the summer. He's still in contention for a starter role, but he was so spectacular as a closer this summer, I really feel like that's where he needs to go, especially if it frees up Burgoon to eat up starting pitching innings.
Speaking of bullpen, key three:
Bullpen must show some improvement -- The Wolverines actually return some solid relievers in the spring, but still have some work to do. They finished last season with a 4.82 pitching staff ERA because of some inconsistency issues with several relievers. Mike Dufek and Matt Miller are returning relievers to remember. Dufek is a two-way player and appeared in just 11 games last season. However, perhaps the Wolverines will choose to increase his role after he compiled a 2.70 ERA in 16 2/3 innings. Miller, meanwhile, appeared in 23 games and had a 3.70 ERA in 41 1/3 innings. Other returning relievers to watch include Tyler Burgoon, Brandon Sinnery, Alan Oaks, Kolby Wood and Matt Gerbe. This unit must be better outside of Dufek and Miller.
The bullpen is one area I'm not particularly worried about this year. Along with the aforementioned Burgoon and Wood as potential closers, Matt Gerbe and Matt Miller both made considerable noise this summer as closers. This summer was the summer of Michigan closers, even Sinnery got involved in the save fad. All of them did extremely well, and that really has me feeling good going into next season. And even with all of those players, we still have Mike Dufek available to close. That's a pretty stacked set of closers.
The one area that I'm not sold on is our left handed pitching. Other than Katzman as a starter, none of our other lefties have really produced at the college level. Matt Broder started for his lower-level summer league team and performed quite well, making me wonder if he will take the long relief slot. Bobby Brosnahan did pretty well this summer himself, and he may become a left handed specialist (in college, they tend to pitch a whole inning rather than just one batter).
Our only left handed reliever with college experience is Jeff DeCarlo. He's still working on bringing his college ERA below 8.00. The stat I like to use to describe DeCarlo is his hit by pitch numbers. Last season he hit one for each inning he pitched. He had 5 hit batsmen and 6 walks in 5 innings pitched. But he was an Academic All BigTen player in 2008!
Moving on to key #4:
Several hitters must rise to the occasion -- The Wolverines have the luxury of utilizing returning hitters Ryan LaMarre, Anthony Toth and Mike Dufek. However, they don't welcome back a plethora of solid hitters. LaMarre batted .344 with 12 homers and 62 RBIs last season, Toth batted .313 with 24 RBIs and Dufek batted .304 with 17 homers and 59 RBIs. Other returning hitters include Chris Berset (.296), Coley Crank (.294), Nick Urban (.288), John Lorenz (.267) and Alan Oaks (.228). Perhaps newcomer Derek Dennis, a very talented freshman, can give the Wolverines a boost at the plate. Michigan finished last season with a .294 batting average.
Again with the blatantly obvious statements – batters rising to the occasion? Duh. Anyway, I think Chris Berset is going to be a big key in all of this. Berset missed a few weeks with a broken finger during the middle of the season, and that really limited his numbers. I don't think he's a .330 batter by any stretch, but I think something near .305 is definitely doable (like his .301 his freshman year).
Other players that could end up contributing at the plate include Garrett Stephens, one of the top hitters in the Prospect League this last summer. I'm really high on the kid's hitting, and I can't see how he doesn't either start at first or start as the DH. Coley Crank had been DH'ing, but he was doing just alright. Stephens really shined at the end of the season at first, and I think he's got a future there.
Out of all of the returning hitters, the one I'm most worried about is Lorenz at third base. He struggled all of last season, forcing a platoon with Tim Kalczynski. His hitting was really weak, and his defense was just as suspect. If he doesn't step up his game this season, we're going to be playing musical chairs at third base until someone can hold it down. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mike Kittle or even Kevin Krantz making appearances early in the season at the hot corner.
As far as the freshman go, I'm not sure what to expect out of any of them. Dennis obviously was drafted really high, but it's yet to be seen how he'll perform in his first year on campus. It'd be nice to see him and maybe even Biondi solidify their place in the lineup, as we really need a leadoff and #2 hitter to step up. I have a feeling those two and Anthony Toth will combine to make the #9, #1, and #2 spots in the lineup. Their speed and high average hitting will hopefully translate to plenty of RBI opportunities for LaMarre and Dufek.
Speaking of those two, KR's fifth key:
Find more power production -- One thing that hurt Michigan last season was its lack of power. The Wolverines finished last season with just 55 homers. Returning hitters Ryan LaMarre and Mike Dufek accounted for 29 of those 55 homers. In other words, some returning hitters or newcomers must step up from a power standpoint. More power would make life much easier for the Wolverines both at the plate and on the mound. We'll see if some newcomers have some pop.
I'm not as concerned about the power as I am that combination at the top of the lineup. Last year's team was definitely a power based team, and that didn't translate to wins. Michigan had trouble sustaining innings, and they particularly struggled with strikeouts. Dufek struck out once in every 4 at-bats, Toth once in every 5. That's just not going to cut it. Sure the homeruns look awesome, but we really need to work on consistency and raising the averages. Power hitting is plenty more powerful with runners on base, and that's not a luxury Michigan had last season.
Good analysis. Hopefully we can bounce back from a last season's disappointments. Excited to see how Derek Dennis does, would have been great if we were able to keep Fields though.
Thanks FA, good stuff.
Once agian Kendall just glances over past rosters and makes "educated" guesses. He obviously didn't talk with any coach or do much, if any, research of the players this past summer. Anyone could have written his 5 keys for Michigan and been just as shallow.
Just a few of my thoughts...
Motivation - is a true wait and see. I hear they are but thought they were last year as well. Coaching plays a BIG role in this and I hope they aren't "over coached" this year. Meaning.. put the athletes on the field and let them play! Micro-managing a ball club doesn't work. Let pitchers/catchers call at least half a game, stop running the team out of innings, quit making unnecessary mound visits, Make a starting rotation and STICK TO IT, etc.
Starting pitching - won't add much here except for my thought on the BT weekend rotation in no particular order (although I think I know where they will be..ha). Miller, Burgoon & Oaks. Katzman is the wildcard only because of being a lefty and it is nice to have a lefty in the weekend rotation. As stated above...it will be critical to identify your rotation and let them go. Coach needs to stop moving them around like pawns on a board.... they lose faith, confidence and motivation. Midweek starters should be Sinnery and undetermined Frosh.
Bullpen - Depending on the weekend rotation; who ever is left out.. Miller, Burgoon, Oaks or Katz will will be the first choice out of the pen during weekend games. Smith, Brosnahan & Gerbe will also make up the long relief set-up role with Dufek and Wood providing closer duty. Wild card will be DeCarlo, Broder and Freshmen McAnallen & Ballantine.
My overall thought on our pitching - I think most will be surprised! We have 4 legit weekend starters. If we keep the K to BB ratio where it needs to be...yahtzee!
Hitting - FA, you hit it. Berset will be key as well as the two frosh, Dennis and Biondi. I think we'll be very solid all around.
This is the year to take the title back. Everyone is focused on OSU and Minn... we will be back.
im very familiar with this team ill list what that i know:
1) all freshmen except Biondi and Fields are almost 100% to redshirt
2) Wood will be closer
3) the weekend rotation will be: Burgoon, Oaks, Katzman
4) Lorenz will start at 3b (atleast at the beginning)
5) Coaches are high on Brosnahan, he'll be a mid week starter possible weekend guy if anyone falters
6) Miller will be setup to Wood
7) Our lineup will be (from what i've heard/seen):
You do know the team...
#1. I just hope they keep a couple freshman arms in the active roster to gain some experience. This team may lose 4 to 5 pitchers after this season and redshirting all frosh pitchers would hurt them. They need to get young arms some experience.
#4. Kittle is very capable and waiting... but you're 100% correct.
#6. I feel you're right on...I just believe Miller is too valuable to use as set-up and not get max innings from him. Although Miller-Woods would be lights out.
#7. Yup...and I think will be a great one too.
All of that looks pretty much as I'd expect. I wouldn't be surprised if Toth and Dennis switch as the season goes on, but that depends on Toth's progress this off season and cutting down his strikeouts. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Urban and Stephens switch, but again, I'm bullish on Stephens performing well.
Thanks for the info. Shoot me an email sometime. Are you still in the Ann Arbor area?
The fielding is what had me tearing my hair out last year. I'm hoping the younger guys have settled down.
Other Chris.... yes, I rememebr too many times where the errors just killed us. Talking with caoch this fall and watching them play, I do think this will be a very solid defensive unit. Dennis wil be a stud at SS. He is very smooth with great range. He's a freshman so I do expect a few mistakes but think he'll keep to a minimum. Lorenz at 3rd will be fine, he's had a year and summer behind him and has a cannon arm. The unproven will be Biondi in LF. He's very fast but not sure how sticky his glove is or how strong of an arm he has.
Urban is way too good (and fast) in the OF to be replaced with Stephens (plus Stephens will get some time at 1b too), if anyone in the OF would be replaced, it would be Biondi due to lack of hitting.
This year's OF is blazingly fast, one of the fastest in the nation
Urban, LaMarre, and Biondi all run at or below 6.55 in a 60 yd dash
Crank at C... he's still has a lot to prove defensively to be a solid #2 C (but he is improving), but his bat is also very strong, plus he's the only C behind Berset who is not going to be redshirted, so playing him and Berset is a HUGE risk, if Berset goes down.
Vangheluwe did NOT have tommy john
Kittle is very much in the mix at 3b, along with Krantz, but even with all Lorenz's faulters last year, kid has a ton of talent. Plus, Kittle is a great utility guy coming off the bench.
Freshmen pitching: Clark or Ballatine might get some innings, but with a staff so deep with mid-tier guys, it'd be a waste of a year, especially when they still have PLENTY to learn about college hitters.
I think FA was talking about Urban & Stephens switching places in the batting order...not positions. You're 100% right. Urbs is way too fast and valuable to take out of the OF. Even with a frosh.... we should have the best OF crew in the BigTen.
Yeah, I meant in the batting order, not on the field. If anyone made the move to the outfield, I'd expect Oaks out there when he's not starting on the mound, and that would probably push Urban to LF. We'd lose a little defense that way, but the power hitting would improve drastically (if Biondi isn't producing).
Here's a specific question, who's the main pinch baserunner this year? Last year's main guy left what seemed abruptly, and I hadn't found anything on what he's doing this year. No summer ball, nothing. I thought maybe he had moved back to Georgia.
I'm assuming your talking about Aspinwall, far as I know he's still around, just as a regular student.
I figure the first pinch runner would be Kittle followed by Krantz
Urban, who may be a little undersized, has a cannon from RF, Oaks might have a slight edge, but Urban is no slouch. Plus when playing at home, LF is a lot smaller than RF, so Biondi would be the odd man out, but Oaks's bat isn't exactly consistent.
I would think Soph Crank will also get a lot of ABs. Do you see him splitting time with Stephens at DH and also spelling Berset behind the plate?
oops... just caught this... Fields signed, i meant Dennis
I don't see UM being much better than last year. Questionable recruiting in 2007-8, especially with their pitching has doomed them to middle of the pack. I like their 2009 group better even without Fields, but they will just be freshmen.
No mention of Kevin Vangheluwe. I still have high hopes for him. He wasn't very good last year, but usually, it takes 2 years to overcome TJ surgery.
I think taking Michigan kids like Wood, Brosnahan and Mills, versus other Michigan kids like Mitchem, Cooper and LaMothe in 07-08 has really set UM back. I think Maloney is relying on Keller for his pitching recruiting, and that is a part of the problem.
Yeah, I still think we were built to play the 4 game series last year with our pitching staff. Fetter was our only pitcher who could go deep into games, but even that took a toll on his arm by season's end.
Katzman and the rotation of 3rd game starters hardly ever made it past the 6th inning, meaning we had back-to-back days where we had to use the bullpen for about 4 innings. Compare that to the year before when we had a distance guy like Putnam, Fetter that would go a complete 7, and then a mix of guys to complete the weekend.
It also didn't help to lose Jenzen before the season and Burgoon through most of it, with lingering effects lasting to the end of the season. Those guys both had the ability to suck up the innings. Jenzen was probably the biggest loss last season, as that would have been a huge boost to the overtaxed pen, and I think people forget about that.
I don't have a solid read on Vangheluwe yet. Those limited appearances were rough (to put it delicately) last year, but like you said, the Tommy John surgery could be quite a bit of that. He had a pretty rough summer, so I'm hoping the off season treats him well.
I have no specific opinions on how things are being recruited. I'm no insider there, and I generally avoid recruiting in any sport. I'll leave you to your own opinions.