Expectations

Week 7 Conference Wins Update

Preamble

“Break their hearts my pride and hope, break their hearts and have no mercy.”
    - Miss Havisham (Charles Dickens’ Great Expectations)

Seven weeks in and all the Big Ten teams have played at least 6 games. The Bye for Michigan came at the perfect time, sandwiched between two scrimmages which altogether amounts to the equivalent of a mid-season training camp. When the team breaks training after this week’s scrimmage, it will begin preparations in earnest for the second half of the season, beginning in East Lansing with an exhibition in exacting vengeance. Meanwhile, Sparty has demonstrated its ability to lull the Wolverines into a false sense of security by playing dead to the visiting Wildcats of Northwestern. To similar ends, the Buckeyes saw fit to play some sort of ruse with Wisconsin by squandering a 4th quarter lead only to put the kibosh on in it in OT.

The impetus of this diary is the desire to characterize the competitive landscape of the Big Ten Conference through the synthesis of total win probability distributions for each of the teams. The distributions are derived from the relative expected points ratings from Bill Connelly (S&P+), ESPN (FPI), and occasionally Ed Feng (The Power Rank). The key is that the ratings are based on expected points, which are in turn translated into win probabilities. Each of these three ratings are generated from their respective advanced statistical analyses and metrics. In doing so, they achieve varied results ... some more pleasing than others depending on your point-of-view.

Anyway, here you will find further ruminations on said statistics into still more statistics as a means for enabling further discussion, jumping to conclusions, flying off of the handle or goading your rival. Also included is a fresh look at the all-important head-to-head win-differential probability distribution for the matchup between a select pair of contenders in the B1G East.

Schedules, Spreads & Win Probabilities

B1G East Schedule Rundown

The table of schedules below shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G East based on the Bill Connelly’s S&P+ weekly ratings. The last table simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GE teams based on their  expected in-conference win totals, it’s not a projection of divisional standings based on projected wins, losses, and tie-breakers.

S&P+

The main discussion now following OSU’s defeat of Wisconsin at Camp Randall revolves around which team has a more significant win over the Badgers: Michigan or Ohio State? Seeing as how Michigan was idle this week and could do nothing to either improve or erode its position, it could be inferred that any change in relative position between the two would be attributable to performance in the one game that was played. That said, the numbers have spoken, and it would appear that the numbers like Michigan. OK, so maybe some difference is attributable to some further removal of pre-season factors in the case of S&P+, but the results are even better in that case.  Anyway, the Buckeyes can no longer claim to be the only team in Big Ten that is favored in all of its remaining games. That distinction, my friends, belongs to your ever-lovin’ Wolverines. This is because UM, by virtue of lingering residue of its unprecedented throttling of Rutgers now two weeks ago, is ranked #1 in all the land by S&P+, and is now two spots ahead of OSU. Yea. Just swirl that around in your mouth for a moment before swallowing, and then savor the warmth as it passes down your esophagus. That right there is like a shot of 125 proof Booker’s small-batch bourbon. It’ll cure what ails you and make you want to howl at the moon!

The Wolverines lead over the Buckeyes in expected wins has expanded to just over 0.6 wins. At nearly 8.5 expected wins, Michigan is the only team in the B1G expected to exceed 8 wins. As inferred above, the only game OSU is not a favorite in is The Game. As for OSU, they managed to survive a tough road game at Wisconsin. Next on their slate is another tough road test at a resurgent Penn State. That as well as a later OSU matchup versus the Huskers may make or break the Buckeyes’ prospects heading into The Game. It’s worth noting that like Wisconsin, Penn State will have the benefit of playing OSU at home and coming off a bye. The bottom line is that OSU is the only remaining game in which PSU is an underdog, and the Nits stand as the clear #3 with about 6.3 expected B1G wins. The Nits - currently rated in the top five in several major S&P+ offensive categories (including standard and passing down efficiency, as well as passing efficiency and passing IsoPPP) - are showing enough offensive creativity to make things interesting when they host the Buckeyes.

Meanwhile, the Indiana defense continued to display an emergent saltiness in the Hoosiers loss to Nebraska, holding the Huskers to an un-Hoosier-like 360 yards of offense and 5-15 on 3rd down. The Hoosiers expect just under 4.5 Big Ten wins, but are underdogs in only two of its remaining games, which should make them bowl eligible. Maryland is slipping off the bubble after its second loss, being an underdog in 4 more games and expecting just over 3.1 B1G wins. After giving up over 50 in losing to Northwestern, prospects for MSU to qualify for bowl eligibility are just about gone. Sparty is an underdog now in five of its remaining B1G games (including at Illinois) - up one from last week, before they lost. As for LOLRutgerz, The Scarlet Knights will be seeing red for the rest of the season.

FPI

The FPI results differ slightly, the most notable difference that Michigan holds the #2 spot, followed by OSU at #3. In turn, M tops all teams in the B1GE with just over 8.2 expected wins, ahead of OSU by just over 0.2 wins. Nonetheless, FPI results still show OSU to be favored in all of its remaining games; so of course the only game in which U-M is not favored is The Game. The margin, however, is only 0.6 points. Penn State has separated from all others as the clear #3 in the B1GE at nearly 5.8 expected wins and is an underdog in only one more game. Indiana, with about 3.7 expected wins is an underdog in 3 more games; and Maryland, expecting about 3.2 wins is an underdog in 4 games. MSU, meanwhile, is favored in only one more game this season: Rutgers. That would be sufficient to send Indiana and Maryland bowling, as well as keep Sparty home.

Here’s a link to a chart showing the results from the Power Rank-ings.

B1G East Expected Conference Wins

The bar plots below show the expected total overall wins distributions for teams in the B1G East, in alphabetical order. Noted above each bar is the probability for that number of wins (you may need to click & embiggen to read it). The bar with the highest value is the most likely outcome (the mode). Also flagged on each plot is the expected overall win total (the mean). The last line plot is just an overlay of the same data from the other seven bar plots.

S&P+

The “big take-away” from this round of distributions is that Michigan and Ohio State are no longer tied for the highest mode, that distinction belongs to UM with a mode of 9 wins and an undefeated season. OSU shows a mode of 8 wins, skewed slightly toward 7 wins. The next highest mode is Penn State at 6 wins leaning strongly toward 7, followed by Indiana at 5 wins leaning strongly toward 4 wins, and Maryland at 3 wins. MSU has settled into the 2 win mode leaning toward 1 win, while Rutgers is not likely to get more than 1 win. Clearly, the B1GE will be decided between U-M and OSU by significant a margin. UM now has the edge for the best chance of having an undefeated season at 54.1% (up from the 18.8% before obliterating Rutgers) or about 5:4 odds, followed by OSU with an 21.1% likelihood (9:2 odds). At this point, the overlaid S&P+ distributions show the grouping of the Big Two with the remainder of the B1GE fairly spread out, with at least four and possibly five teams likely to be bowl eligible. Lagging behind are Sparty and LOLRutgerz, both of whom stand as the only teams at this point registering any significant likelihood of going winless in the Big Ten. At a likelihood of 61.2%, LOLRutgerz going winless is the only thing that’s more assured than Michigan going undefeated.

FPI

The FPI results differ somewhat from the S&P+ results above. Both UM and OSU register modes of 8 wins, with both teams skewing significantly toward 9 wins. UM registers a 37.2% chance to win out. After beating Wisconsin last week, the likelihood of OSU to go undefeated has risen to 29.9% from 20.0% last week. From there, a clear separation of 2 wins exists to the next closest contender, Penn State, who also stands another 2 wins ahead of Indiana and Maryland, with modes of 4 wins and 3 wins, respectively. Sparty lags further behind with a mode of 2 wins, now only one win ahead of Rutgers. You heard it here first: Rutgers at MSU is shaping up to be something of a Battle Royale, a veritable slobber-knocker of self-loathing not seen since Elizabeth Taylor and Richard Burton in Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

Here’s a link to a chart showing the results from the Power Rank-ings.

B1G West Schedule Rundown

The next table of schedules shows the overall schedules for the B1G West based on the Bill Connelly’s S&P+ weekly ratings. Again, the last table simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GW teams based on their  expected win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional conference standings per se.

S&P+

The  S&P+ results have the contenders in the B1GW, in order of overall expected wins, as Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa - all of whom expect to have winning records. Nebraska, now expecting about 6.5 wins, has an edge of nearly 0.8 wins over Wisconsin. From there, Minnesota and Iowa lag another 0.8 to 0.9 wins, respectively. The resurgent Wildcats are expecting about 4.4 B1G wins, which would suffice to make them bowl-eligible. Having traversed the gauntlet that was their early season schedule, however, the Badgers now sit in the catbird seat, being the only team in the B1GW favored in all of its remaining games. On the other hand, Nebraska is an underdog in its next two games (including at Wisconsin), and Minnesota is an underdog in 2 games as well. Iowa may have reached its high-water mark in dispensing Purdue, as it is a favorite in only 1 of its 5 remaining games, that one win however, may suffice to make the Hawkeyes bowl-eligible. Similarly, Illinois is favored in only one remaining game, and Purdue, after letting Darrell Hazell go, will be mailing in the rest of the season.

FPI

FPI differs somewhat compared to S&P+, showing Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern as the teams in contention and expecting to have winning B1G records.  Nebraska is the leader per FPI, now expecting about 6.5 wins, which leads the Badgers by just over 1 win. Iowa and Northwestern are within 0.5 wins of the Badgers, and 0.8 wins ahead of the Gophers. As with S&P+, FPI results show Wisconsin being favored in all of its remaining games. Nebraska and Minnesota are both two-game dogs. Northwestern is a 3-game dog, and Iowa is favored in only one of its five remaining games.

Here’s a link to a chart showing the results from the Power Rank-ings.

B1G West Expected Conference Wins

The bar plots below show the expected overall win distributions for the B1G West teams, in alphabetical order.

S&P+

The story in the B1GW is how close the race to Indy remains. Four teams have modes of 5, 6 or 7 wins. Nebraska is currently the only team with a mode of 7 wins, while Wisconsin is at 6 wins. Iowa and Minnesota are both balanced on the 5 win mode. Northwestern is at the 4 win mode, but are skewed toward 5 wins. The only team remaining without a loss is Nebraska, but has only a 1.5% likelihood of staying that way. The Huskers also have the best - and only - chance of a one-loss season in the B1GW at 13.9%.

FPI

The FPI results tell a similar story. Nebraska shows a 7 win mode, leaning toward 6 wins; Wisconsin is at the 6 win mode, leaning toward 5 wins. Meanwhile, Iowa and Northwestern show nearly indistinguishable, balanced distributions with modes of 5 wins. Minnesota lurks at the 4 win mode, with a strong skew toward 5 wins. As such, those five teams are at least hopeful bowl-game qualifiers, but Illinois and Purdue…are kicking into rebuilding mode.

Here’s a link to a chart showing the results from the Power Rank-ings.

Michigan vs. Ohio State Wins Differential

The win-differential distribution simply shows the likelihood of one team (say, Michigan) finishing with a conference record that is some number of games better or worse than another team (say, Ohio State). Keeping in mind that in the event of a tie, the winner of the head-to-head match up determines the tiebreaker … the probability of the teams having identical conference records (i.e. a win differential of zero) heading into the final head-to-head meeting is then pro-rated in proportion to the win probability of the head-to-head game. The same principle also applies to the probabilities of either team having a one-game lead going into the head-to-head (i.e. win differentials of +1 and -1). This is because a team trailing by one game would still clinch the tie-breaker by winning the final head-to-head game. Thus, the total likelihood of Michigan finishing ahead of Ohio State is the sum of all the maize-and-blue shaded bars (i.e. U-M wins two or more games than OSU), plus a proportional split of the -1, 0 and +1-differential bars. It’s worth noting that this total likelihood does not indicate the likelihood of making it to the B1G Championship, as it says nothing about how other teams in the B1G East do, or even how Michigan or Ohio State do in the absolute sense. For example, if both teams were to finish tied in the B1G at 7-2, which means that UM and OSU would be losing 2 games each, at which point another team (Penn State) may have a snowball’s chance.

S&P+

Beginning as usual with the results of the S&P+ analysis, the chart below shows that the most likely outcome (52.0% likelihood) is that U-M and OSU have identical records heading into Columbus. No surprises here by now, as The Game will likely decide who has the better team, and who will play for the B1G Championship. What’s different now than in past weeks is that looking at the head-to-head matchup, UM is now favored with a win probability of 61.2%, so UM collects a 31.8 point share of the 52.0 points for the likelihood of winning coming in tied and finishing ahead one game. OSU collects the remaining 20.2 points.

The second most likely scenario, with a 33.5% likelihood, is that UM comes into Columbus one game ahead of OSU. Of this possible outcome, UM collects another 20.5 point share for the likelihood of winning coming in ahead by one game and finishing up two. OSU collects the remaining 13.0 points, for likelihood of coming in down one game and finishing tied, but winning the tie-breaker.

The next most likely scenario, with a 7.4% likelihood, is that UM comes into Columbus up two games with the B1GCG spot presumably locked up. The outcome of the game does not matter in this case, so UM collects all 7.4 points.

The fourth most likely scenario, with a 6.2% likelihood, is that UM comes into Columbus trailing by one game. Of this, UM collects a 3.8 point share for its likelihood of winning and finishing in a tie, but UM winning the tie-breaker.

In total according to the S&P+ ratings, UM has a 64.2% likelihood of finishing the season ahead of OSU - nearly a 2:1 chance!

FPI

Painting a somewhat less rosy picture, here is the same chart based on the FPI ratings following the week 7 results. This shows a much narrower margin for UM in the race against OSU to the B1GCG. As with S&P+, the most likely outcome is that the teams head into Columbus with the same record. In the head-to-head matchup, OSU’s home field advantage gives them the narrowest of margins with a 51.6% likelihood to win the game. To sum it all up - according to FPI, UM has a 51.4% likelihood of beating out OSU at season’s end, or pretty close to an even chance.

Here’s a link to the chart showing the results from the Power Rank-ings, which just don’t seem to have that lovin’ feelin’.

So there you have it. After witnessing more convincing wins by Michigan over the last two opponents shared in common with OSU (Rutgers & Wisconsin), the tables have turned completely. Michigan obliterated Rutgers on the road even more thoroughly than OSU did at home. Also, OSU’s OT win at Wisconsin yielded 23 points to the Badgers in regulation, compared to UM’s 7 points allowed, and OSU’s 23 points in regulation matches UM’s touchdowns and field goals attempted. As for Wisconsin, they will carry on as they still have much to play for, and will surely make its own push toward a spot in the B1GCG and a likely rematch for them - the question is with whom?

The prospects for Michigan football to play in the Big Ten Championship Game are trending in the right direction, while competitive games for OSU in the coming weeks (at Penn State and versus Nebraska) may expose further weaknesses and vulnerabilities. In all, it makes Michigan the team to beat in the Big Ten, and beyond.

Yours in football, and Go Blue!