Thanks for getting this timely update up so timely!
Mike Lantry, 1972
Mid-Week metrics will be coming…well, mid-week.
Since we are within four weeks of the end of the regular, running some end of simulations start to make sense. Below are my projections based on my PAN ratings through last weekends games, run through 20,000 simulations and pushed through the Big Ten’s mildly confusing tiebreaking rules.
Odds of an outright win or two-team tie with straight ahead tiebreakers:
Michigan St: 58.3%
Three Way Tie: 6.0%
4 Way Tie: 0.1%
3 or 4 way ties mostly split between Nebraska and Michigan with a couple going Iowa’s way. Any 3+ team ties go against Sparty. The only judgment call I made was assuming in the event of a Michigan/Nebraska/Michigan St tie that went to the BCS computers I assumed that Michigan St would be out due to the ND loss and Michigan would lead Nebraska thanks to the head to head. Doesn’t change much, would swing a couple scenarios away from Michigan if they weren’t ahead.
In the end, Michigan’s odds are about 9.5% to reach the Championship game.
Update: MGoUser But I aint a Crip though had a good comment about Michigan's odds if they win out or go 3-1. Winning out gives Michigan a 37.5% chance of winning the division and going to the championship game. A loss within the division is a killer, odds reduce to 0.3% with a loss against Nebraska and 4.0% if they lose versus Iowa. An Illinois loss drops but winning the rest puts the odds at 21% and winning the next three but dropping to Ohio still means a 17% chance at the inaugural championship game.
Penn St: 42.9%
Three Way Tie: 6.3%
Four Way Tie: 2.1%
Five Way Tie: 0.2%
Despite a two game lead over Wisconsin, Penn St and Wisconsin are about even odds to win the division. Thanks to both of their losses coming out of division, Ohio wins almost any tiebreaker scenario they are in. There are a couple ties that the Buckeyes missed out on and Wisconsin and Purdue! split those.
Odds on who they would face:
Penn St: 41.2%
Minnesota @ Michigan St: 99% MSU
NW @ Nebraska: 99% Nebraska
Indiana @ Ohio: 99% Ohio
Purdue @ Wisconsin: 99% Wisconsin
Michigan @ Iowa: 67% Michigan
What a crappy set of games this weekend
Wisconsin @ Minnesota: 99% Wisconsin
Nebraska @ Penn St: 52% Nebraska
Michigan @ Illinois: 55% Michigan
Michigan St @ Iowa: 71% Michigan St
Ohio @ Purdue: 61% Ohio
Minnesota @ Northwestern: 77% Northwestern
Indiana @ Michigan St: 99% Michigan St
Nebraska @ Michigan: 56% Michigan
Penn St @ Ohio: 57% Ohio
Wisconsin @ Illinois: 72% Wisconsin
Iowa @ Purdue: 54% Purdue
Iowa @ Nebraska: 87% Nebraska
Michigan St @ Northwestern: 89% Michigan St
Purdue @ Indiana: 81% Purdue
Ohio @ Michigan: 70% Michigan
Illinois @ Minnesota: 89% Illinois
Penn St @ Wisconsin: 85% Wisconsin
Thanks for getting this timely update up so timely!
Personally, I'd be surprised if Penn State wins another game this year.
Yeah, they have a tough final 3 games. Their defense is pretty solid though, so overall I like their chances to take 1.
[Insert "Defense wins championships" meme here]
Their schedule is back-loaded like ours. Their 5 conference wins have come against 5 of the bottom 6 teams in the B1G.
They may be able to get one. It's easy to look at it game by game and see how they'll be underdogs, but when you look at a group of games favorites don't always win. If they can win a divisional game they really do have a good shot at the BTCG.
They're a better team than I think most people give them credit for. For one, they're like, ranked, you know.
Rankings don't really mean that much, you know.
but I don't see how Illinois is our toughest game left and ohio is our easiest game left.
I think it is because Illinois is in Champaign and Ohio is in Ann Arbor. I suspect the lines for both games will have a smal advantage to the home team.
They already have the lines out. We're favorites in the Illinois game. And we're favors this week in Iowa City.
I hope you're right on that, but I would not put money on those chances.
Interesting analysis however.
Especially if the students show up late to that game as well!
On 11/19 you have "Penn St @ Ohio: 57%" -- I'm assuming this is 57% Ohio?
The computer models - PAN, Sagarin, FEI, etc. - don't know that Ohio played the first 5 games with Joe Bauserman and without Mike Adams, and that their team is fundamentally different at this time. Therefore, I think Ohio is systematically underrated in these rankings. On a neutral field, I'd think we're about 50-50 against Ohio; with the game at the Big House, I'd put our win likelihood at 60%.
Mathlete: I know the sample size of games with Braxton Miller as the QB (and post Tatgate suspensions) is small, but do you have the ability to make one-off adjustments to your system to test "what if" scenarios? For example, if you implemented an assumption of a structural break in Ohio's ability starting with their sixth game? Looking at their schedule it may not make too much difference - those close losses to Michigan State and at Nebraska came prior to the "break" and are impressive in hindsight - but it might be interesting to see. At the least, those early games against Toledo and Miami (YTM) may need to be heavily discounted.
Don't have a formal way of doing it but doing a quick check shows that Ohio was -6 on offense through week 5 and +0 since then. A six point swing is worth about 15-20% increase on every game which would swing all the odds, will try and add this in next week. It would also move Michigan from a 7 point favorite to a 1 point favorite.
Cool stuff, and quite the valuable resource for this site - I wouldn't bother asking Jeff Sagarin or Brian Fremeau for a detailed/disaggregated statistical breakdown of a Michigan opponent!
Keep in mind, though, that -6 the first 5 weeks and +0 since means they averaged about -4 over the last 8 games. So, that's more like a 12-15% increase and swings Michigan from a 7 point favorite to a 3 point favorite.
Nice analysis, The Big Ten is so weird this year, a whole lot of parity and/or suck (The Gophers/Hoosiers, etc) and no truly elite teams, I can't see Penn State winning out though, and as much as my heart wants to say Wiscy - UM....my head says
Badgers - Huskers rematch, and the Badgers winning again
So you're saying there's a chance...
This is interesting (as always), but M's percentage looks heavily influenced by scenarios it loses 2+ more games. More interesting: What are M's chances if they win out or drop only one more? (Back of the envelope with your numbers says Sparty wins out 62% of simulations, so it's gotta be south of 38%.)
That is an interesting thought. If you were a lawyer I would totally hire you.
Those % are way too high. 99% should be reserved for games like Alabama @ home vs Ole Miss.
Northwestern vs an Offensively challenged Nebraska in a classic trap game is nowhere near 99%.
Many more like that.
You should check the Massey predictions for Michigan and for other teams. For some reason, it has accurately predicted most of the margins of victory and records of most teams that I've looked at. He has Michigan at number 10 in the nation as: 75% favorites against Iowa (M 28 - I 21), 69% favorites against Illinois (M 24 - I 17), 53% favorites against Nebraska (M 28 - N 26), and 72% favorties against OSU (M 24 - O 17). Meanwhile, Michigan State is also heavily favored to win its last 4 games.
Miraculously, it predicted that Iowa v Minnesota would be a really close game, that Michigan State would trash tornado Michigan, that Michigan would beat Notre Dame, and that Illinois would lose to Penn State and Ohio State. If all of these predictions were truly made pre-game, then I'm simply astounded by how on-target they are.
This is true for virtually all college teams; the real sign of a dominant squad is the ability to go on the road into hostile environments and still perform well. In our two road games, we played well in two out of eight total quarters; the other six were filled with turnovers, inconsistent defense, and an inability to run the ball out of the RB position. All three of Iowa's losses are on the road, and we should expect to see a dramatically different level of performance from the Hawkeyes next Saturday.
You gave MSU way to much credit for their road games.
wow, odds are all on us
I think M's chance of making Indy are negligible since Sparty gets to coast in from this point. If they don't win out, some furniture will certainly need to be sacrificed in the streets. They have a cake schedule remaining and obviously own the tie-breaker against the good guys.
I love the 70% likelihood of beating Tat U, but the last several years have taught me healthy skepticism. God it would be nice to take their cheating arses behind the woodshed and leave their soulless husks of a fanbase demoralized.
I'm surprised we have a better chance against Iowa than Illinois. I feel like it's the reverse. Did the loss to Minnesota dramatically change Iowa's numbers?
Perhaps I'm just missing something, but it seems a bit odd that Michigan could be favored to win out of the remaining four games, but be behind Nebraska in the odds in the division? Wouldn't it be MSU then UM?
MSU vs PSU in the B1G championship game. Who would have thunk this!!!!