I do some amateurish statistical compiling from time to time for a couple of pools I'm in during the CFB season. In the last couple of days, I took a look at returning starters by unit in the B10 against the relative production of those units last year. Thought I'd throw it out there since I had it anyway.

A couple of notes.

• All of the data come from the NCAA's website
• I've listed the teams in order of retuning starters—used Adam Rittenberg's count from his post Spring Practice overviews of the B10 on espn.com.  
• I've only looked at Total Offense and Scoring Offense, and Total Defense and Scoring Defense. There are tons of other categories obvs, but these to my mind give a pretty good sense of things.
• Also, for the offense, I've noted which teams have returning starting QBs because of the difference that makes in competency of the offense typically. E.g., both Michigan and PSU have 7 returning starters on offense but I would expect Michigan's unit to be much more efficient and productive given the respective options at QB.

On with it, then …

Scoring Offense and Total Offense

 

	Returning Starters	Returning QB Starter	Yrds/Game	Big 10 Total O Rank 2009	NCAA Total O Rank 2009	Pts/Game	Big Ten Scoring Rank 2009	NCAA Scoring Rank 2009
Wisconsin	10	Y	416.92	1	30	31.77	1	25
OSU	10	Y	369	8	68	29	4	49
Minnesota	9	Y	306.46	11	109	20.92	11	100
Northwestern	8	N	404.08	4	40	25.92	7	71
Indiana	8	Y	365	9	72	23.5	9	84
Michigan	7	Y	384.5	7	59	29.5	3	41
PSU	7	N	406.92	2	37	28.85	5	52
Iowa	6	Y	336.31	10	89	23.15	10	86
MSU	6	Y	406.23	3	38	29.69	2	36
Purdue	6	?(Marve)	391.33	6	53	27.83	6	58
Illinois	5	N	393.5	5	47	24.17	8	81

Takeaways (in the corporatey bullshit bingo meaning of the word)

• Is it on Wisconsin or Wisconsin's on?Teams are going to have to put up considerable points to beat the Badgers. Slightly odd to think about them as a prolific offense, but with 10 starters coming back and Tolzien back under center, they are likely to put up better numbers than last year. And last year, they were good. They moved it and they scored it.  What's is scary about this unit isn't shown here—they were ranked 3^rd in Red Zone efficiency nationally last year (scoring 96% of their opportunities) and 2nd nationally in what I'll call Red Zone TD efficiency, scoring 42 TDs in 56 opportunities for a 75% clip.  That is pretty sick efficiency.
•  Sweater lets go of the reigns?OSU has a lot coming back from a team that was just so-so in total offense and scoring, though that's typical of a Tressel low risk offense, IMO, not necessarily a reflection of talent.  I'm expecting that TP in Year Three will have this offense clicking. Under a different coach, this could be a Top 10 - 20 unit or better, I think. They have the pieces. But under the suffocating cotton of the Sweater, they might not get there.  Nor need to get there.
•  Good News, Bad News for Minny. The good? They have a lot coming back. The bad? They weren't very good last year. Substantial improvement would only see them as a middle of the road NCAA offense.
•  Thin Green Line. MSU has only 6 returners but they were a Top 35-ish unit with a first-year starting QB in 2009.  I'm expecting them to be comparable and likely better if their revamped line holds up. The skill players are in place. My guess is that they'll move and score even if the line is mediocre, which it likely will be.
• With a D like ours, who needs offense?Or so says Iowa. Their offense was pretty anemic last year, both in the B10 and nationally. Yet they played in a BCS game and soundly beat the ACC champ.  (Anyone wish we could flip flop the relative strengths of Michigan's O and D? I do.) 

 

Scoring Defense and Total Defense

 

	Returning D Starters	Yrds/Game 2009	Big Ten Total D Rank 2009	NCAA Total D Rank 2009	Pts/Game 2009	Big Ten D Scoring Rank 2009	NCAA D Scoring Rank 2009
Michigan	8	393.33	9	82	27.5	8	77
Iowa	8	276.54	3	10	15.38	3	8
Wisconsin	6	305.69	4	17	21.77	4	33
MSU	6	380.85	8	73	26.31	7	77
Purdue	6	376.58	7	69	29.5	9	89
Illinois	6	403.25	11	91	30.17	11	96
OSU	5	262.31	1	5	12.54	2	5
Northwestern	5	350.46	5	47	24.46	6	55
PSU	5	274.46	2	9	12.23	1	3
Indiana	4	401	10	88	29.5	10	91
Minnesota	2	369.15	6	63	23.77	5	51

 Takeaways

• Right, about that crappy offense. If you had your choice, whose 8 starters would you want back on defense, Iowa's or Michigan's? (Rhetorical) The Hawkeyes were Top 10 in both total and scoring D in '09.  While their Red Zone D overall efficiency was only middle of the pack (76^th in the country ... teams scored on 83% of their opportunities), they didn't give up many Red Zone chances (only 29 all year, which was 8^th best in the country), and their red zone TD defense was stout, giving up only 14 TDs in those 29 Opportunities for a 48% clip and 21^st best in the country.
• The Numbers for Wisconsin, PSU and OSU. All of these units were pretty damn good last year.  OSU and PSU have to replace 6 spots, but we know these teams, (especially OSU) lose guys annually and rarely see production drop off with new starters. Wisconsin doesn't have that same track record, but they have a good core coming back. While improving on 2009 performances would be tough, even status quo would be pretty good, and I'm expecting pretty much that.
• Face lift. Minnesota will have a bunch of new guys running around. Typically not a good thing when you were an average NCAA defense the prior year.
• Hoosiers will be generous. Indiana wasn't terribly gifted on D last year, lost a couple of the better defensive ends in the conference, and only return four starters. In other news, the world is round.
• The rest of 'em. The balance of the conference had mediocre or poorer defenses last year. Other than Michigan, most are replacing at least 5 starters. I don't see any quantum leaps in improvement here.  

Enjoy your hot dogs, potato salad and parades this weekend.