I don't think they changed Les at all actually
Asgardian
Rivals 100 - 4 Year Analysis
Filed under:
I dug into the Rivals 100 for the years 2010 - 2013 today, originally to try and see if there were any State by state or Regional trends by position. I was inspired to check some data on the well worn "elite"-skill-player-recruiting-meme that popped up again in the Treadwell thread. While it may not be breaking news to everyone else, I thought I'd dump some data here in case others want to check it out.
Rivals 100 by Position:
| Position | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | AVG |
| QB | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3.75 |
| DUAL (Threat QB) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2.25 | |
| RB | 6 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 7.75 |
| APB | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3.25 |
| WR | 11 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 12.75 |
| TE | 3 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3.75 |
| OL | 15 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 13 |
| DB | 16 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 14.75 |
| LB | 7 | 12 | 9 | 14 | 10.5 |
| DE | 15 | 12 | 17 | 10 | 13.5 |
| DT | 12 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 8.25 |
| ATH | 9 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6.5 |
| Grand Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Total QB | 2 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Total RB | 10 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 11 |
| Total DL | 27 | 20 | 24 | 16 | 21.75 |
| Total Offense | 41 | 53 | 45 | 47 | 46.5 |
| Total Defense | 50 | 42 | 48 | 48 | 47 |
| Total ATH | 9 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6.5 |
Rivals 5 Stars by Position:
| Count of Location | Column Labels | ||||
| Row Labels | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Grand Total |
| QB | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| DUAL | 1 | 1 | |||
| RB | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| APB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| WR | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| TE | 1 | 1 | |||
| OL | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 13 |
| DB | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| LB | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | |
| DE | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 19 |
| DT | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| ATH | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Grand Total | 26 | 26 | 32 | 26 | 110 |
| Total QB | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Total RB | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| Total DL | 7 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 30 |
| Total Offense | 10 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 |
| Total Defense | 13 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 55 |
| Total ATH | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| # OF RECRUITS (ACTUAL) | |||||||
| Total | Skill | DB | LB | DL | OL | QB | |
| SOUTHEAST | 158 | 53 | 33 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 2 |
| WESTCOAST | 66 | 23 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 6 |
| TX, MO, KS | 55 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 9 | - |
| MIDWEST | 51 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 2 |
| COASTAL | 45 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 4 |
| MOUNTAIN | 13 | 3 | 1 | - | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| NORTHEAST | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Total Players | 400 | 136 | 59 | 42 | 87 | 52 | 15 |
| # OF RECRUITS (ACTUAL minus PROJECTED BY % of Total) | |||||||
| Total | Skill | DB | LB | DL | OL | QB | |
| SOUTHEAST | - | (1) | 10 | 0 | (1) | (4) | (4) |
| WESTCOAST | - | 1 | 1 | (3) | (0) | (2) | 4 |
| TX, MO, KS | - | 6 | (4) | (2) | (1) | 2 | (2) |
| MIDWEST | - | (0) | (6) | 2 | (0) | 4 | 0 |
| COASTAL | - | (3) | (1) | 4 | 0 | (2) | 2 |
| MOUNTAIN | - | (1) | (1) | (1) | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| NORTHEAST | - | (1) | 0 | (0) | 2 | (1) | (0) |
| Total Players | 400 | 136 | 59 | 42 | 87 | 52 | 15 |
Footnotes: "Skill" - RB, APB, WR, TE, ATH. APB - All Purpose Back
While we all know the Southeast has a major advantage in recruiting ratings (some say this reflects not just talent but also bias), what surprised me was the positional breakdowns. Perhaps some of this is small sample size, but some bullets:
- The Southeast has a significantly higher % of the DBs than any other position. Given they have 153 out of 400 total recruits, you would expect them to have about 23 DBs of the 59. They actually had 33, 10 more than that! This is felt in the Midwest and Texas, where elite DBs are more scarce.
- A tiny sample, but the West Coast has been more successful at getting QBs elite status on Rivals.
- The Midwest is significantly overrepresented in Offensive Lineman recruits, with LBs also making a strong showing.
- The Coastal Region (MD, VA, NC) also has strong LBs.
- Texas jumps out for its offensive Skill players
- There's no discernable deviation from trend on DLinemen, the SEC meme is probably more depth related due to different roster management techniques
- One minor thing I thought was weird was the state of Georgia (not charted) produced 11 DL but only 1 OL in the last 4 years. However once the data is summed up to the regional level, the trend disappears.
- Neither Nebraska nor Oklahoma (the states) have a single recruit over the last four years that is in the Rivals Top 100. Not to say they can't have #101 every year, but the CFB playoff analogy is if you're not in the top 8, you probably can't claim to be number 1.
And now for some top recruiters by position group:
Rivals 100 RB/APB Commits (2010-2013 Total)
Remember these are not all 4 star, only rivals top 100
| Top Programs | 4 Star | 5 Star | Total |
| Alabama | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| USC | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Georgia | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Florida State | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Oklahoma | 2 | 1 | 3 |
(Michigan has one 4 Star, Justice Hayes)
Rivals 100 WR Commits, does not include listed as ATH (2010-2013 Total)
| Top Programs | 4 Star | 5 Star | Total |
| USC | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Clemson | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Texas | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Alabama | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Tennessee | 2 | 1 | 3 |
(Michigan has zero)
Rivals 100 OL Commits (2010-2013 Total)
| Top Programs | 4 Star | 5 Star | Total |
| USC | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Auburn | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Texas | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Michigan | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Notre Dame | 4 | 0 |
4 |
(FWIW Alabama is way down the list with one 4 star and one 5 star.)
