Alabama vs Michigan–Roster Compare Pt.2
A couple weeks ago I charted the public roster data, rivals ratings and a cursory 3 deep for both Alabama and Michigan. This diary continues that analysis. I’m going to reprise a few mistakes I made in the data table and then chart class by red shirt and EE.
First of all the corrections…
- Clinton-Dix, D.J Pettaway and Woodson are not walk-ons (the hyphenated and abbreviated names makes joining the Rivals data and the school roster date a joy.) This accentuates the difference in Rivals ratings between the players on the field and the scout team.
- I showed this variability chart last time of the team including the scouts and the incoming 2012 class…where the confidence intervals overlapped. (Note I counted Deion Belue twice previously since he was a class of 2010 recruit who is back this year as an EE JUCO.)
- Here’s the same analysis of the 3 deep where the data really separates…
- This was clear before, I think, but I made a mistake and it obfuscated the fact – the Tide are just more star worthy. A quick reminder of what Rivals ratings are… I counted all non rated guys as 5.0 so that makes this not entirely accurate.
The ranking system ranks prospects on a numerical scale from 6.1-4.9.
- 6.1 Franchise Player; considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation's top 25 players overall; deemed to have excellent pro potential; high-major prospect
- 6.0-5.8 All-American Candidate; high-major prospect; considered one of the nation's top 300 prospects; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
- 5.7-5.5 All-Region Selection; considered among the region's top prospects and among the top 750 or so prospects in the country; high-to-mid-major prospect; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
- 5.4-5.0 Division I prospect; considered a mid-major prospect; deemed to have limited pro potential but definite Division I prospect; may be more of a role player
- 4.9 Sleeper; no Rivals.com expert knew much, if anything, about this player; a prospect that only a college coach really knew about
- OK that’s done. Mea Culpa. Let’s breakdown more stuff…I looked at class before but let’s looks at class by red shirt and early enrollment…
Here’s straight up RS/EE vs. Class – side by side then for each team with cross column/row %…
Here’s the more detailed tables with % … I like it but to each his own…
I debated whether to include the Tests here. But it’s a likelihood vs. the null hypothesis and Alabama is unlikely regardless of the sparse data points. They don’t have preferred walk-ons evidently. This intrigued me so I thought I would look more into that… and that… will have to wait for some other time. I have to go back to bed. It is what it is – so my wife tells me.
prevatt33 came back on oversigning on the original post. There’s more on that here as well just in looking at the rosters… I guess there will be a part 3 later.
(EDIT: I simplified the contingency table for glazed eyes…and put them side by side… Seth I am not. Note I’m going to republish this – which resets the clock but preserves the formatting. For some reason one of my charts disappeared. All better now.)