A couple weeks ago I charted the public roster data, rivals ratings and a cursory 3 deep for both Alabama and Michigan. This diary continues that analysis. I’m going to reprise a few mistakes I made in the data table and then chart class by red shirt and EE.
First of all the corrections…
Clinton-Dix, D.J Pettaway and Woodson are not walk-ons (the hyphenated and abbreviated names makes joining the Rivals data and the school roster date a joy.) This accentuates the difference in Rivals ratings between the players on the field and the scout team.
I showed this variability chart last time of the team including the scouts and the incoming 2012 class…where the confidence intervals overlapped. (Note I counted Deion Belue twice previously since he was a class of 2010 recruit who is back this year as an EE JUCO.)
Here’s the same analysis of the 3 deep where the data really separates…
This was clear before, I think, but I made a mistake and it obfuscated the fact – the Tide are just more star worthy. A quick reminder of what Rivals ratings are… I counted all non rated guys as 5.0 so that makes this not entirely accurate.
The ranking system ranks prospects on a numerical scale from 6.1-4.9.
- 6.1 Franchise Player; considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation's top 25 players overall; deemed to have excellent pro potential; high-major prospect
- 6.0-5.8 All-American Candidate; high-major prospect; considered one of the nation's top 300 prospects; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
- 5.7-5.5 All-Region Selection; considered among the region's top prospects and among the top 750 or so prospects in the country; high-to-mid-major prospect; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
- 5.4-5.0 Division I prospect; considered a mid-major prospect; deemed to have limited pro potential but definite Division I prospect; may be more of a role player
- 4.9 Sleeper; no Rivals.com expert knew much, if anything, about this player; a prospect that only a college coach really knew about
OK that’s done. Mea Culpa. Let’s breakdown more stuff…I looked at class before but let’s looks at class by red shirt and early enrollment…
Here’s straight up RS/EE vs. Class – side by side then for each team with cross column/row %…
Here’s the more detailed tables with % … I like it but to each his own…
I debated whether to include the Tests here. But it’s a likelihood vs. the null hypothesis and Alabama is unlikely regardless of the sparse data points. They don’t have preferred walk-ons evidently. This intrigued me so I thought I would look more into that… and that… will have to wait for some other time. I have to go back to bed. It is what it is – so my wife tells me.
prevatt33 came back on oversigning on the original post. There’s more on that here as well just in looking at the rosters… I guess there will be a part 3 later.
(EDIT: I simplified the contingency table for glazed eyes…and put them side by side… Seth I am not. Note I’m going to republish this – which resets the clock but preserves the formatting. For some reason one of my charts disappeared. All better now.)