6-6 My Justification
Chattanooga W56-7 (2-10)
at Wisconsin L34-17 (8-6)
at Cincinnati W 35-32 (7-7)
East Carolina W37-17 (4-8)
Maryland L48-17 (11-3) finished AP 13
at Rutgers W40-0 (1-11)
Syracuse W34-7 (4-8)
Miami L40-23 (12-1) finished AP 2
at Temple W46-20 (4-8)
Boston College W24-14 (9-4)
at Virginia Tech W21-18 (10-4) finished AP 18
at Pittsburgh W24-17 (9-4) finished AP 19
vs. Virginia L48-22 (9-5) finished AP 22
Okay so your probably saying so what, they went 9-4 and finished the season ranked 25th in the AP. The thing that interested me the most was that they played 8 teams with records above .500, splitting them with 4 wins and 4 losses. Other than the Cincinnati game, the wins came after the week 10 win over BC who was 5-4 coming into the game. The better play at the end of the year isn’t that surprising when you consider RR was in the 2nd season of bringing in his system to WV; you would expect the team to continue to get better the more they play. The same could be said of last year’s UM team as well.
So now looking at UM’s schedule for 2009, and using Phil Steele’s preseason rankings of the post season this is how I think it will work out. Steele is beyond the most accurate, don’t get mad if you don’t agree with his rankings but I expect someone will anyway.
Notre Dame >.500
at MSU >.500
at Iowa >.500
Delaware State <.500
Penn State >.500
at Illinois >.500
at Wisconsin >.500
Ohio State >.500
So taking Steele’s ranking and accuracy at such things into account that would mean RR would be facing about 7 teams above .500 (including WMU) in 2009. This schedule is not as back loaded as WV’s was back in 2002. In the first 9 games UM would be facing 6 teams looking to go +.500 as opposed to only 4 at WV. Following this one past season example it would be reasonable to expect 2 more losses than WVs 2002 record of 6-3 to bring UM’s 2009 record to 4 -5 at the end of week 9. That leaves 3 games left in the regular season that again if you follow history would indicate 3 wins leaving a successful? season at 7-5.
Obviously you can’t take this as THE answer to how UM will perform in 2009 solely on WV’s success/failures back in 2002. So using this as a platform to build off of I would make the following substitutions.
--I would remove the win vs. OSU, the emotions that go through the players during this game and the difference in experience levels between the two teams will be too much for UM to overcome. (overall season 6-6)
--I would add a win in the first 9 games, because of the increased level of talent, the additional time in the weight room (though that should be a wash since Barwis was at both schools) and another year in RR’s system. (overall season 7-6)
--Then I would remove a win because of all the distractions from the off season, the whole playing time crap, having 3 QB’s set to play in the first game (I know Tate is the “starter” but they’re all set to play), a new DC, and the lack of good depth on defense. (overall season back to 6-6)
--The wild card game in my opinion will be the Illinois game which I have down as a would be loss. IMHO it would be the next likely win, of the losses I have listed.
So that is my justification for a 6-6 UM team in 2009.
I ran out of cough syrup 3 days ago
Must be delirium tremens then.
Mental status changes of delirium tremens:
Decreased attention span
Decreased mental status
Deep sleep that persists for a day or longer
Stupor, sleepiness, lethargy
Usually occurs after acute symptoms
Delirium (severe, acute loss of mental functions)
Hallucinations (such as seeing or feeling things that are not present are most common)
Highly sensitive to light, sound, touch
Mood changes rapidly
I was going to make a smart comment but I think I go through each of these symptoms when I watch ND (and in order too) so now I am feeling kind of scared, oh no thats a symptom too.
You rounded down, he rounded up. Perhaps you differ on what happens September 12 - that'd be the difference.
Right now there's more uncertainty about the ability & toughness of individual opponents then there will be the rest of the way (look how much we learned about Oregon already! And that's just one game). Will Illinois be good? Maybe... will they outmatch Michigan? Which will improve more? Right now, that's impossible to say. We'll know a lot more about questions like that in a couple of weeks. Currently I have a hard time imagining fewer than 5 wins or more than 8; trying to pick between 6 and 7 wins seems crazy to me. Ask me again in late September and I'll have more confidence in my guess.
Yeah I was torn on the illinois game but I think Juice to Benn will be too common of an occurrence.
It will become a much clearer picture in the coming weeks like you said.
For a Michigan fan you're quite pessimistic.
Pretty sure he's a Domer. The "Irish" handle sort of gives it away.
Why did you go with his rankings????? Because he has Notre Dame at #7. I think he has been listening to Lou Holtz way too much.
Because for the last 10 years his preseason rankings have been more accurate than anyone else. And his rankings came out well ahead of Dr. Lou's.
O.K. I was just wondering. I looked up preseason rankings http://www.collegefootballcafeteria.com/rankings/2009-preseason-college-... and saw Notre Dame not anywhere close to that and could not believe that they were ranked that high by anyone without the last name Holtz.
Its his preseason rankings of the post season, where he thinks everyone will be after 12 games. But it wasn't really a part of my justification so I removed those rankings entirely.
6-6 would be a huge disappointment...dont think it will happen either
reading when I saw you had ND ranked at #7. Good luck with that.
I would have hoped you read far enough to see it wasn't my ranking but Phil Steeles, but either way I removed it because it wasn't used in my justification
I love how everybody is making a prediction right now, but even if a guy is right, I'd consider that a coincidence. It would make more sense to make predictions after each Big 10 team plays 3 games. I mean, this is not exactly a math equation, especially during a transition period. There are so many things involved: luck, injuries, team chemistry, mental toughness, experience, momentum, etc...you name it. We don't really have an idea what we will see tomorrow, now go figure how the season will go.
No.... No you didn't
focus on Nevada.
We don't want your boys limping into Michigan Stadium at 0-1, with their "schematic advantage" dragging on the ground.
I was bored and needed something to do, I already know everything I can know, or care to know I should say, about Nevada. Made fun of their reporters' articles on the game, while still being respective of course, read their media guide, looked for more articles to make fun of, not a lot of sportswriters cover Nevada..... I thought the last week was going to be hard but these last few hours are going to suck.
I would love to have 1-0 v 1-0 in about a week, and feel pretty confident about it happening that way. I am sure we will have schematic advantage oozing from our players, they use it instead of deodorant now a day. lol 21hrs 33mins....
Nevada's Pat Brady holds the record for the longest punt in college football history with his 99-yard punt against Loyola Marymount on October 28, 1950. It is a record that can only be matched, not broken.
No I didn't, but it would fall into the category of things I don't really care to know :)
I will make sure I alert everyone should I see him line up to take a return though
that Notre Dame has never beaten a team known as the "Wolf Pack"; this being their first game against Nevada. One notable effort was the 2003 Gator Bowl loss to the NC State Wolfpack 28-6.
I was pretty sure of the first part and had drank away the second but keep em comin
I'm going to wait and see how the entire season plays out before I make MY prediction.
Trust me, you guys won't want to miss it.
This system has worked pretty well for me. More often than not, my accuracy rate using this system has been above 65%.
your prediction does not count .. all predictions had to be im by 7pm yesterday ... sorry
I could have sworn your memo said today at 7 was the deadline....[shuffling papers]......nope your right 9/3, how could I have messed that up. I feel like Peter Gibbons right now, damn TPS reports!