4 and 5 Star running backs: A fact finding mission

Submitted by Blue boy johnson on

Warning: if you don't like lists, this is not the Diary for you

With Rival 5 Star running back, Derrick Green, set to announce his college of choice in less than 24 hours, I thought this would be an opportune time to share this data with you.

I have compiled a list of all the 4 and 5 Star Rival running backs between 2002-2007 and took a look at how they fared in college and if they went on to get drafted into the NFL. I will list this data, but first a few findings and observations. I also compiled a list of the 330 3 Star running backs of this period but do not include them in the body of this work in an effort to shorten the post.

All lists on running backs are from Rivals. I did not use Scout or any other rating service.

I have a list of the Rivals running backs through 2012 but only included 2002-2007 in this study, because all these running backs have exhausted their eligibility and would have been drafted into the NFL if they were going to be. I almost included the 2008 class, but some like Sam McGuffie, are just finishing up their college career.

The list of Rival running backs will consist of Player; Stars; NFL Draft Round; 1000yd/College

1000yd/College: tells how many 1000 yard seasons player had in college and for what college. I used this because 1000 yards rushing has always been a benchmark of a successful college season and it was something I could acquire data on reasonably well

As far as the NFL draft list; there are a couple of tidbits;

Some NFL drafted running backs, such as Darren McFadden, were rated by Rivals as Athletes in HS or LB's or whatever. I do not include these players in any of the numbers pertaining to 4 and 5 Star running backs.

A few of the players in the NFL draft years used were out of HS before 2002, and hence, have no Rivals rating and were labeled NA.

Michigan players on the list:

For a little introductory of what is to follow, here is a list of the Michigan running backs from this period:

EDIT: somehow I left Pierre Rembert of the list of M running backs. Pierre did have one 1000 yard season for Illinios State after leaving Michigan. Not sure if Illinois State was FCS or FBS or something else in this time frame

Michigan 4 and 5 Star running backs 2002-2007
Name Stars NFL DRAFT ROUND 1000yd/College
Darnell Hood 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Michigan
Jerome Jackson 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Michigan
Max Martin 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Mich; Ala; Ala St.
Kevin Grady 5 Stars Undrafted 0 Michigan
Carlos Brown 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Michigan
Pierre Rembert 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Mich and 1 Ill St.

2002-2007 Rivals Running Backs:

21 are 5 Star running backs of which 10 or 47% were drafted into the NFL

139 are 4 Star running backs of which 36 or 26% were drafted into the NFL

330 are 3 Star running backs of which 38 or 11.5% were drafted into the NFL

 

2005-2012 NFL draft of running backs:

There are running backs from before 2002 and after 2007 in the draft list and they are not counted in any of the numbers pertaining to 2002-2007 Rival running backs

There were 160 running backs taken in this time period, of which, 84 come from the Rivals 3,4, and 5 Star running backs of this period

Of the 21 running backs taken if the first round of the NFL draft between 2005-2012 only two were 2 Stars the rest were 3, 4 and 5 Star.

1000yd/College:

As one might expect, there is a high correlation between being productive in college and getting drafted into the NFL.

Speaking of just the 4 and 5 Star Rivals running backs, 68% who enjoyed at least one 1000 yard season in college were drafted into the NFL

  82%: 14/17 of 4/5 star running backs with 2 or more 1000 yard college seasons were drafted, including 6 first rounders. If you are highly rated out of HS and productive in college it is good news for you

  40 of the 160;  25%; of 4/5 Stars running backs from 2000-2007 had at least one 1000 yd season.

11 of the 21 5 Star running backs accomplished at least one 1000 yd season. With 5 of 11 ending up first round draft picks in the NFL

The lists:

I will now include the rather lengthy lists of running backs  and NFL running back drafts. Any insights you can share would be appreciated.

Rivals 4 and 5 Star running backs:

Each header will include the number of running backs on the list

Because Rivals ranks running backs in two categories, so do I.

2002 Rivals top running backs (27)

Name Stars NFL DRAFT ROUND 1000yd/College
Ciatrick Fason 5 Stars 4th 1 Florida
Gerald Riggs Jr. 5 Stars Undrafted 1 Tennessee
Jerious Norwood 5 Stars 3rd 2 Miss St.
DeShawn Wynn 4 Stars 7th 0 Florida
Selvin Young 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Texas
David Horne 4 Stars Undrafted 0 at NEB; 1 N Iowa
Nick Turner 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Miss St.
Michael Cooper 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Georgia
Robert Merrill 4 Stars Undrafted 1 TCU
Thomas Clayton 4 Stars 6th 0 Fla and 0 K. State
Randy Hill 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Arizona State
Reshard Dudley 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Georgia 0 games
Brian Calhoun 4 Stars 3rd 0 Colo; 1 at Wisc
Wali Lundy 4 Stars 6th 0 Virginia
Frederick Collins 4 Stars Undrafted 0 San Diego State
Tristan McClendon 4 Stars Undrafted 1 NC State
Pierre Rembert 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Mich and 1 Ill St.
Kenny Irons 4 Stars 2nd 0 S. Car, and 1 Aub
Stevie Hicks 4 Stars Undrafted 1 Iowa State
Damien Rhodes 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Syracuse
Tre Smith 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Auburn
Jamal Pittman 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Mississsippi
Kenny James 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Washington
Marcus O'Keith 4 Stars Undrafted 0 California
Nate Schiccatano 4 Stars Undrafted 0 ND and Temple
John Ford 4 Stars Undrafted NA no college ball
Ibrahim Halsey 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Illinois
2002 Rivals all purpose backs (11)
Name Stars NFL DRAFT ROUND 1000yd/College
Lorenzo Booker 5 Stars 3rd 0 Florida State
Michael Johnson 5 Stars Undrafted 0 Virginia
Justin Vincent 4 Stars Undrafted 1 LSU 
Hershel Dennis 4 Stars Undrafted 0 USC
Skyler Green 4 Stars 4TH as WR 0 LSU
Darnell Hood 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Michigan
Glenn Ohaeri 4 Stars Undrafted 0 UCLA and Col St.
Shelton Sampson 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Washington
Mario Whitney 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Missouri
De'Angelo Williams 4 Stars 1st 3 Memphis
William Blackmon 4 Stars 4th as CB 0 Boston College
2003 Rivals top running backs (19)
Name Stars NFL DRAFT ROUND 1000yd/College
Reggie Bush 5 Stars 1st 1 USC
Kregg Lumpkin 5 Stars Undrafted 0 Georgia
Demetris Summers 5 Stars Undrafted 0 South Carolina
Alley Broussard 5 Stars Undrafted 0 LSU
Tyrone Moss 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Miami of Florida
Darrell Blackman 4 Stars Undrafted 0 NC State
Lynell Hamilton 4 Stars Undrafted 1 San Diego State
Chauncey Washington 4 Stars 7th 0 USC
LenDale White 4 Stars 2nd 2 USC
Barrington Edwards 4 Stars Undrafted 0 LSU then NC
Erik Hardeman 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Texas 
Jason Evans 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Stanford
Cornell Johnson 4 Stars Undrafted NA no stats found
Brian Dennison 4 Stars Undrafted NA no stats found
Jerome Jackson 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Michigan
Skyler Thornton 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Florida
Andre Callender 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Boston College
Laurence Maroney 4 Stars 1st 3 Minnesota
Austin Scott 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Penn State
2003 Rivals all purpose backs (5)
Name Stars NFL DRAFT ROUND 1000yd/College
Maurice Drew 4 Stars 2nd 1 UCLA
Rashaun Grant 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Georgia Tech
David Marrero 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Stanford & San Jose
Michael Turner 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Wisc and N. Mexico
Albert Young 4 Stars Undrafted 1 Iowa
2004 Rivals top running backs (15)
Name Stars NFL DRAFT ROUND 1000yd/College
Adrian Peterson 5 Stars 1st 3 Oklahoma
Marshawn Lynch 4 Stars 1st 2 California
Bobby Washington 4 Stars Undrafted 0 NC State
Thomas Brown 4 Stars 6th 0 Georgia
Charlie Jones 4 Stars Undrafted 0 U Mia & Memphis
D.J. Wolfe 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Oklahoma
Jamaal Edwards 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Florida State
Tony Temple 4 Stars Undrafted 2 Missouri
Andrew Johnson 4 Stars Undrafted 0 U Miami Florida
Andre Brown 4 Stars 4th 0 NC State
Markus Manson 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Florida & Vald St.
George Bell 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Va Tech & Catawba
Antonio Pittman 4 Stars 4th 2 Ohio State
Kenny Wilson 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Nebraska
Max Martin 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Mich; Ala; Ala St.
2004 Rivals all purpose backs (3)
Name Stars NFL DRAFT ROUND 1000yd/College
Webster Patrick 4 Stars Undrafted NA Juco only
Terrell Jackson 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Oregon
Raymond Williams 4 Stars Undrafted 0 WV; Tol; Shaw
2005 Rivals top running backs (17)
Name Stars NFL DRAFT ROUND 1000yd/College
Jonathan Stewart 5 Stars 1st 1 Oregon
Marlon Lucky 5 Stars Undrafted 1 Nebraska
Jason Gwaltney 5 Stars Undrafted 0 WVU and others
Kevin Grady 5 Stars Undrafted 0 Michigan
Toney Baker 4 Stars Undrafted 0 NC State
James Davis  4 Stars 6th 2 Clemson
Jamaal Charles 4 Stars 3rd 1 Texas
Roy Upchurch 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Alabama
Rashard Mendenhall 4 Stars 1st 1 Illinois
Maurice Greer 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Troy
Antonio Robinson 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Nicholls State
Morgan Green 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Maryland
J.R. Hasty 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Washington
Mikell Simpson 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Virginia
Terry Longbons 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Arizona no stats
Elan Lewis 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Va Tech; Del State
Mike Ford 4 Stars Undrafted 0 South Florida
2005 Rivals all purpose backs (5)
Name Stars NFL DRAFT ROUND 1000yd/College
Antone Smith 5 Stars Undrafted 0 Florida State
LaMarcus Coker 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Tennessee
Russell Ball 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Florida State
Maurice Wells 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Ohio State
Richie Rich 4 Stars Undrafted 0 North Carolina
2006 Rivals top running backs (22)
Name Stars NFL DRAFT ROUND 1000yd/College
Chris Wells 5 Stars 1st 2 Ohio State
Stafon Johnson 5 Stars Undrafted 0 USC
James Aldridge 5 Stars Undrafted 0 Notre Dame
Michael Goodson 4 Stars 4th 0 Texas A&M
Carlos Brown 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Michigan
Benjamin Tate 4 Stars 2nd 1 Auburn
LeSean McCoy 4 Stars 2nd 2 Pitt 
Charles Scott 4 Stars 6th 1 LSU
Emmanuel Moody 4 Stars Undrafted 0 USC and Florida
Knowshon Moreno 4 Stars 1st 2 Georgia
Kylan Robinson 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Miami of Florida
Mon Williams 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Fla. & Eastern Ill.
Javarris James 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Miami of Florida
James Montgomery 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Cal & Wash State
Kevin Collier 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Pitt
Tracy Slocum 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Cal & Fresno St.
Chris Brown 4 Stars Undrafted 1 Oklahoma
Brent Carter 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Penn State
Cordera Eason 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Mississippi
Cameron Smith 4 Stars Undrafted NA can't find stats
Kenny Ashley 4 Stars Undrafted NA only played juco
Anthony Dixon 4 Stars 6th 2 Mississippi State
2006 Rivals all purpose backs (9)
Name Stars NFL DRAFT ROUND 1000yd/College
C.J. Spiller 5 Stars 1st 1 Clemson
Demarco Murray 4 Stars 3rd 2 Oklahoma
Vondrell McGee 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Texas
Terry Grant 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Alabama
Chevon Walker 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Fla; E. Ill & Sioux F
Jamaal Evans 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Georgia Tech
Kordell Young 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Rutgers
Demetrius Goode 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Alabama & N. Ala
Richard Murphy 4 Stars Undrafted 0 LSU
2007 Rivals top running backs (20)
Name Stars NFL DRAFT ROUND 1000yd/College
Joe McKnight 5 Stars 4th 1 USC
Marc Tyler 4 Stars Undrafted 1 USC
Enrique Davis 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Mississippi
John Clay 4 Stars Undrafted 2 Wisconsin
Brandon Saine 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Ohio State
Lennon Creer 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Tenn, 1 La Tech
Robert Hughes 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Notre Dame
Caleb King 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Georgia
Jahvid Best 4 Stars 1st 1 California
Jonathan Dwyer 4 Stars 6th 2 Georgia Tech
Robert Elliott 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Mississippi State
Bradley Stephens 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Texas A&M
Brian Maddox 4 Stars Undrafted 0 South Carolina
Broderick Green 4 Stars Undrafted 0 USC and Arkansas
Terence Kerns 4 Stars Undrafted 0 no college
Bo Williams 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Iowa State
Antwain Easterling 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Southern Miss.
Daniel Herron 4 Stars 6th 1 Ohio State
Dale Martin 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Akron
Derrick Washington 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Missouri
2007 Rivals all purpose backs (7)
Name Stars NFL DRAFT ROUND 1000yd/College
Noel Devine 5 Stars Undrafted 2 West Virginia
Armando Allen 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Notre Dame
Raymond Carter 4 Stars Undrafted 0 UCLA; Col. State
Chris Rainey 4 Stars 5th 0 Florida
Shane Vereen 4 Stars 2nd 1 California
Foswhitt Whittaker 4 Stars Undrafted 0 Texas
Omar Bolden 4 Stars 4th as CB 0 Arizona State

NFL draft of running backs 2005-2012:

2005 NFL Draft Running Backs      
Drafted Running Backs          
NAME SCHOOL ROUND TEAM   Rival rating
 Ronnie Brown Auburn 1 Miami   NA
 Cedric Benson Texas 1 Chicago   NA
 Carnell Williams Auburn 1 Tampa Bay NA
 J.J. Arrington California 2 Arizona   NA
 Eric Shelton Louisville 2 Carolina   NA
 Frank Gore Miami (FL) 3 San Francisco NA
 Vernand Morency Oklahoma State 3 Houston   NA
 Ryan Moats Louisiana Tech 3 Philadelphia NA
 Maurice Clarett Ohio State 3 Denver   5*
 Marion Barber Minnesota 4 Dallas   NA
 Brandon Jacobs Southern Illinois 4 NY Giants   NA
 Ciatrick Fason Florida 4 Minnesota 5*
 Manuel White UCLA 4 Washington NA
 Alvin Pearman Virginia 4 Jacksonville NA
 Darren Sproles Kansas State 4 San Diego NA
 Damien Nash Missouri 5 Tennessee NA
 Justin Green Montana 5 Baltimore NA
 Cedric Houston Tennessee 6 NY Jets   NA
 Tony Jackson Iowa 6 Seattle   NA
 DeAndra Cobb Michigan State 6 Atlanta   NA
 Rick Razzano Mississippi 7 Tampa Bay NA
 Nehemiah Broughton Citadel 7 Washington NA
 Lionel Gates Louisville 7 Buffalo   NA
 Anthony Davis Wisconsin 7 Indianapolis NA
 Noah Herron Northwestern 7 Pittsburgh NA
 Madison Hedgecock North Carolina 7 St. Louis   NA
2006 NFL Draft Running Backs      
Drafted Running Backs        
NAME SCHOOL ROUND TEAM   Rival rating
Reggie Bush USC 1 New Orleans 5*
 Laurence Maroney Minnesota 1 New England 4*
 DeAngelo Williams Memphis 1 Carolina   4*
 Joseph Addai LSU 1 Indianapolis NA
 LenDale White USC 2 Tennessee 4*
 Maurice Jones-Drew UCLA 2 Jacksonville 4*
 Brian Calhoun Wisconsin 3 Detroit   4*
 Jerious Norwood Mississippi State 3 Atlanta   5*
 Michael Robinson Penn State 4 San Francisco NA
 Garrett Mills Tulsa 4 New England NA
 Leon Washington Florida State 4 NY Jets   NA
 P.J. Daniels Georgia Tech 4 Baltimore NA
 Jerome Harrison Washington State 5 Cleveland NA
 David Kirtman USC 5 Seattle   NA
 Wali Lundy Virginia 6 Houston   4*
 Lawrence Vickers Colorado 6 Cleveland NA
 J.D. Runnels Oklahoma 6 Chicago   NA
 Cedric Humes Virginia Tech 7 Pittsburgh NA
 Quinton Ganther Utah 7 Tennessee 2*
2007 NFL Draft Running Backs      
Drafted Running Backs        
NAME SCHOOL ROUND TEAM   Rival rating
Adrian Peterson Oklahoma 1 Minnesota 5*
 Marshawn Lynch California 1 Buffalo   4*
 Kenny Irons Auburn 2 Cincinnati 4*
 Chris Henry Arizona 2 Tennessee 3* ATH
 Brian Leonard Rutgers 2 St. Louis   3*
 Brandon Jackson Nebraska 2 Green Bay 3*
 Lorenzo Booker Florida State 3 Miami   5*
 Tony Hunt Penn State 3 Philadelphia 3*
 Garrett Wolfe Northern Illinois 3 Chicago   2*
 Michael Bush Louisville 4 Oakland   4* ATH
 Antonio Pittman Ohio State 4 New Orleans 4*
 Dwayne Wright Fresno State 4 Buffalo   2*
 Le'Ron McClain Alabama 4 Baltimore NA
 Kolby Smith Louisville 5 Kansas City 3*
 Oren O'Neal Arkansas State 6 Oakland   NA
 Reagan Mauia Hawaii 6 Miami   2* OT
 Thomas Clayton Kansas State 6 San Francisco 4*
 Deon Anderson Connecticut 6 Dallas   3* LB
 Justise Hairston Central Connecticut  6 New England NA
 DeShawn Wynn Florida 7 Green Bay 4*
 Nate Ilaoa Hawaii 7 Philadelphia NA
 Jason Snelling Virginia 7 Atlanta   3*
 Kenneth Darby Alabama 7 Tampa Bay 3*
 Ahmad Bradshaw Marshall 7 NY Giants   3*
2008 NFL Draft Running Backs      
Drafted Running Backs          
NAME SCHOOL ROUND TEAM   Rival rating
Darren McFadden Arkansas 1 Oakland   5*ATH
 Jonathan Stewart Oregon 1 Carolina   5*
 Felix Jones Arkansas 1 Dallas   4* ATH
 Rashard Mendenhall Illinois 1 Pittsburgh 4*
 Chris Johnson East Carolina 1 Tennessee 2*
 Matt Forte Tulane 2 Chicago   2*
 Ray Rice Rutgers 2 Baltimore 3*
 Kevin Smith UCF 3 Detroit   2*
 Jacob Hester LSU 3 San Diego 2*
 Jamaal Charles Texas 3 Kansas City 4*
 Steve Slaton West Virginia 3 Houston   3*
 Tashard Choice Georgia Tech 4 Dallas   3*
 Ryan Torain Arizona State 5 Denver   2*
 Jerome Felton Furman 5 Detroit   NA
 Tim Hightower Richmond 5 Arizona   NA
 Owen Schmitt West Virginia 5 Seattle   NA
 Marcus Thomas UTEP 5 San Diego 2*
 Thomas Brown Georgia 6 Atlanta   4*
 Jalen Parmele Toledo 6 Miami   2*
 Xavier Omon Northwest Missouri  6 Buffalo   1*
 Mike Hart Michigan 6 Indianapolis 3*
 Lex Hilliard Montana 6 Miami   NA
 Chauncey Washington USC 7 Jacksonville 4*
 Peyton Hillis Arkansas 7 Denver   4* FB
 Justin Forsett California 7 Seattle   2*
 Cory Boyd South Carolina 7 Tampa Bay 3*
 Allen Patrick Oklahoma 7 Baltimore NA
2009 NFL Draft Running Backs    
Drafted Running Backs        
NAME SCHOOL ROUND TEAM Rival rating
Knowshon Moreno Georgia 1 Denver 4*
 Donald Brown Connecticut 1 Indianapolis 3*
 Chris Wells Ohio State 1 Arizona 5*
 LeSean McCoy Pittsburgh 2 Philadelphia 4*
 Shonn Greene Iowa 3 NY Jets 3*
 Glen Coffee Alabama 3 San Francisco 3*
 Mike Goodson Texas A&M 4 Carolina 4*
 Tony Fiammetta Syracuse 4 Carolina 2*
 Andre Brown North Carolina State 4 NY Giants 4*
 Gartrell Johnson Colorado State 4 San Diego NA
 Quinn Johnson LSU 5 Green Bay 3*
 Frank Summers UNLV 5 Pittsburgh 2*
 Javon Ringer Michigan State 5 Tennessee 3*
 Cedric Peerman Virginia 6 Baltimore 3*
 Aaron Brown TCU 6 Detroit 2*
 James Davis Clemson 6 Cleveland 4*
 Bernard Scott Abilene Christian 6 Cincinnati 1*
 Chris Ogbonnaya Texas 7 St. Louis 3*
 Javarris Williams Tennessee State 7 Kansas City 1*
 Fui Vakapuna Brigham Young 7 Cincinnati NA
 Eddie Williams Idaho 7 Washington 2*
 Larod Stephens-Howling Pittsburgh 7 Arizona 3*
 Rashad Jennings Liberty 7 Jacksonville 2*
2010 NFL Draft Running Backs    
Drafted Running Backs      
NAME SCHOOL ROUND TEAM Rival rating
C.J. Spiller Clemson 1 Buffalo 5*
 Ryan Mathews Fresno State 1 San Diego 4*
 Jahvid Best California 1 Detroit 4*
 Dexter McCluster Mississippi 2 Kansas City 3*
 Toby Gerhart Stanford 2 Minnesota 3*
 Ben Tate Auburn 2 Houston 4*
 Montario Hardesty Tennessee 2 Cleveland 4* ATH
 Joe McKnight USC 4 NY Jets 5*
 John Conner Kentucky 5 NY Jets NA
 Anthony Dixon Mississippi State 6 San Francisco 4*
 Deji Karim Southern Illinois 6 Jacksonville 2*
 Jonathan Dwyer Georgia Tech 6 Pittsburgh 4*
 James Starks Buffalo 6 Green Bay 2*
 Charles Scott LSU 6 Philadelphia 4*
 Jameson Konz Kent State 7 Seattle 2*
2011 NFL Draft Running Backs  
Drafted Running Backs      
NAME SCHOOL ROUND TEAM Rival rating
Mark Ingram Alabama 1 New Orleans 4* ATH
 Ryan Williams Virginia Tech 2 Arizona 4*
 Shane Vereen California 2 New England 4*
 Mikel Leshoure Illinois 2 Detroit 3*
 Daniel Thomas Kansas State 2 Miami 4*ATH
 Demarco Murray Oklahoma 3 Dallas 4*
 Stevan Ridley LSU 3 New England 4* ATH
 Alexander Green Hawaii 3 Green Bay 3*
 Roy Helu Nebraska 4 Washington 3*
 Kendall Hunter Oklahoma State 4 San Francisco 3*
 Delone Carter Syracuse 4 Indianapolis 3*
 Owen Marecic Stanford 4 Cleveland 2*
 Taiwan Jones Eastern Wash 4 Oakland NA
 Bilal Powell Louisville 4 NY Jets 2*
 Jamie Harper Clemson 4 Tennessee 4* FB
 Johnny White North Carolina 5 Buffalo 3*
 Anthony Sherman Connecticut 5 Arizona 2*
 Jacquizz Rodgers Oregon State 5 Atlanta 3*
 Dion Lewis Pittsburgh 5 Philadelphia 3*
 Charles Clay Tulsa 6 Miami 3*
 Evan Royster Penn State 6 Washington 3*
 Jordan Todman Connecticut 6 San Diego 2*
 Allen Bradford USC 6 Tampa Bay 5* LB
 Shaun Chapas Georgia 7 Dallas 3*
 Da'Rel Scott Maryland 7 NY Giants 4* ATH
 Shane Bannon Yale 7 Kansas City NA
 Anthony Allen Georgia Tech 7 Baltimore 3*
 Baron Batch Texas Tech 7 Pittsburgh 3*
 Stanley Havili USC 7 Philadelphia 4* FB
 Jay Finley Baylor 7 Cincinnati 3*
2012 NFL Draft Running Backs    
Drafted Running Backs      
NAME SCHOOL ROUND TEAM Rival rating
Trent Richardson Alabama 1 Cleveland 5*
 Doug Martin Boise State 1 Tampa Bay 2*
 David Wilson Virginia Tech 1 NY Giants 4*
 Isaiah Pead Cincinnati 2 St. Louis 3*
 LaMichael James Oregon 2 San Francisco 4*
 Ronnie Hillman San Diego State 3 Denver 3*
 Bernard Pierce Temple 3 Baltimore 2*
 Lamar Miller Miami (FL) 4 Miami 4*
 Robert Turbin Utah State 4 Seattle 2*
 Rhett Ellison USC 4 Minnesota 3* TE
 Bradie Ewing Wisconsin 5 Atlanta 2*
 Chris Rainey Florida 5 Pittsburgh 4*
 Vick Ballard Mississippi State 5 Indianapolis 3* CC
 Alfred Morris Florida Atlantic 6 Washington 2*
 Cyrus Gray Texas A&M 6 Kansas City 4*
 Dan Herron Ohio State 6 Cincinnati 4*
 Terrance Ganaway Baylor 6 NY Jets 2*
 Michael Smith Utah State 7 Tampa Bay 2* CC
 Bryce Brown Kansas State 7 Philadelphia 5*
 Drake Dunsmore Northwestern 7 Tampa Bay 2* TE
 Edwin Baker Michigan State 7 San Diego 4*
 Daryl Richardson Abilene Christian 7 St. Louis NA
2005-2012 first round NFL running backs  
Name College Round NFL Team Stars
Trent Richardson Alabama 1 Cleveland 5*
 Doug Martin Boise State 1 Tampa Bay 2*
 David Wilson Virginia Tech 1 NY Giants 4*
Mark Ingram Alabama 1 New Orleans 4* ATH
C.J. Spiller Clemson 1 Buffalo 5*
 Ryan Mathews Fresno State 1 San Diego 4*
 Jahvid Best California 1 Detroit 4*
Knowshon Moreno Georgia 1 Denver 4*
 Donald Brown Connecticut 1 Indianapolis 3*
 Chris Wells Ohio State 1 Arizona 5*
Darren McFadden Arkansas 1 Oakland 5*ATH
 Jonathan Stewart Oregon 1 Carolina 5*
 Felix Jones Arkansas 1 Dallas 4* ATH
 Rashard Mendenhall Illinois 1 Pittsburgh 4*
 Chris Johnson East Carolina 1 Tennessee 2*
Adrian Peterson Oklahoma 1 Minnesota 5*
 Marshawn Lynch California 1 Buffalo 4*
Reggie Bush USC 1 New Orleans 5*
 Laurence Maroney Minnesota 1 New England 4*
 DeAngelo Williams Memphis 1 Carolina 4*
 Joseph Addai LSU 1 Indianapolis NA

 

Comments

TESOE

January 25th, 2013 at 10:13 PM ^

I like me some lists.  Nice work... RBs make a difference.... Offensive linemen make a huge difference.  It's been too long since we've had an every down sort of back with staying power.  Thanks for taking the time on this.

ppToilet

January 26th, 2013 at 3:21 PM ^

And agree that the data are helpful from a historical, "where are they now", standpoint. Running back, by itself, is not an independent variable and other (on and off field) factors will likely affect the performance of the running back and draft status. The predictive value of star ratings has been done on this site, but this information will be useful as part of a larger data set.

(Thanks again for posting, gordie bell!)

Victor Hale II

January 26th, 2013 at 7:15 AM ^

If Green doesn't choose Michigan today, this diary should be linked repeatedly in the meltdown thread(s) that ensue. It may save one of our members from taking his own life.

SC Wolverine

January 26th, 2013 at 7:37 AM ^

Thanks a bunch for this.  While you show that there is no guarantee with a blue chip RB recruit, this list also shows that a 5* RB is a pretty valuable commodity.  Most of the big-name guys on that list, who really lit it up, were 5*s.  It sure would be nice to have one...

Blue boy johnson

January 26th, 2013 at 8:13 AM ^

There are some tragic stories amongst the list of these young men, where things went terribly wrong.

Nick Turner 4 Star from Rivals class of 2002 is missing and feared dead as of 2010

http://lonelytailgater.com/uncategorized/former-mississippi-state-running-back-nick-turner-missing-presumed-dead.html

Stevie Hicks 4 Star from Rivals class of 2002, committed suicide by jumping off a bridge in 2008

http://www.cyclones.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=10700&ATCLID=3624609

Raymond Williams from Rivals class of 2004, was convicted of involuntary manslaughter, received probation, violated probation by smoking pot, and was sent to prison for 3 years, sending the young man into  heaves of sobbing at the courthouse

http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2007/05/raymond_williams_violates_prob.html

 

Dutch Ferbert

January 26th, 2013 at 8:14 AM ^

We had so many 4 and 5 star busts during this period. At least we had a damn good 3 star for 4 years.

Thanks for the list. I remember a lot of these names from past recruiting stories. It's interesting to see what happened to them.

I Like Burgers

January 26th, 2013 at 9:02 AM ^

So of the five 4/5 star backs we've recruited since 2002, NONE of them have been drafted or had a 1000 yard season despite the fact that according to your research 73% of those backs get drafted, and 82% post a 1000 yard season.  Crazy.

Blue boy johnson

January 26th, 2013 at 1:27 PM ^

Correct. The 82% number; 14/17; refers to backs who had 2 or more 1000 yard seasons AND were drafted into the NFL. Only Tony Temple, Noel Devine and John Clay reached this milestone and did not get drafted.

De'Angelo Williams 4 Stars 1st 3 Memphis
Jerious Norwood 5 Stars 3rd 2 Miss St.
LenDale White 4 Stars 2nd 2 USC
Laurence Maroney 4 Stars 1st 3 Minnesota
Adrian Peterson 5 Stars 1st 3 Oklahoma
Marshawn Lynch 4 Stars 1st 2 California
Tony Temple 4 Stars Undrafted 2 Missouri
Antonio Pittman 4 Stars 4th 2 Ohio State
James Davis  4 Stars 6th 2 Clemson
Demarco Murray 4 Stars 3rd 2 Oklahoma
Chris Wells 5 Stars 1st 2 Ohio State
LeSean McCoy 4 Stars 2nd 2 Pitt 
Knowshon Moreno 4 Stars 1st 2 Georgia
Anthony Dixon 4 Stars 6th 2 Mississippi State
Noel Devine 5 Stars Undrafted 2 West Virginia
John Clay 4 Stars Undrafted 2 Wisconsin
Jonathan Dwyer 4 Stars 6th 2 Georgia Tech

 

Blue boy johnson

January 26th, 2013 at 10:25 AM ^

Roy Upchurch, a Rivals 4 Star 2005, from the State of Florida, who played for Alabama, is an example of just how inspiring some of these young men can be.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/387823-alabamas-roy-upchurch-facing-uphill-battle-to-make-it-in-nfl

 

It started in high school when as a star athlete, he should have been enjoying the limelight and spending his free time dating the cutest girls and partying the way high school kids do. But Roy had a 71-year-old grandmother who needed help, and with all the other family members tied to responsibilities of their own families and children, Roy moved in and took care of his grandmother for the last 18 months of her life, getting up at four each morning to administer her medicines and start her day, then off to school, football practice, and then back to care for his grandmother. It was a lot to put on a 17-year-old kid, but his mother said it was all Roy's idea and he wouldn't take no for an answer, it was what was best for the family.

JimLahey

January 26th, 2013 at 11:18 AM ^

Great list, thanks for putting it together. Since I assume this is a primer for the Derrick Green announcment, I think it would be beneficial to narrow the focus to backs who were similarly ranked to Green. If you look at Rivals from 2003-2010 and check out the backs who were ranked in the top 10 overall players in the nation, as Green is, you will see that the odds are in favor of Green having a nice, if not excellent, career.

2003 - Reggie Bush

2004 - Adrian Peterson

2005 - Jonathon Stewart

2006 - Beanie Wells

2007 - Joe McKnight

2008 - Darrel Scott

2009 - Bryce Brown, Trent Richardson

2010 - Marcus Lattimore

How do you like them apples?

ShakersFromDaUP

January 26th, 2013 at 11:44 AM ^

My takeaway is that from 2005 until now, it seems that Rivals is getting more accurate with their high-star ratings.  I would imagine their process and better access to internet videos has improved their ratings system.  There's a lot of unrated NFL drafted running backs in 2006; not so much in 2012.

treetown

January 27th, 2013 at 12:06 PM ^

Thanks for doing this - helps put a rational perspective on things. Unlike some sports like basketball where getting one player can elevate a team from an also-ran to a Elite Eight or even Final Four contender, one highly rated high school RB can only do so much - too many other variables.

This diary (which I hope you'll keep up and possible expand to other positions like OL, DL, DB, QB) demonstrates a few points:

1. One player can only do so much - note that many of the RBs who went on to success in the NFL didn't rack up 3-4 1000 yd/seasons in college. This can be due to many reasons (playing behind a good starter, bad OL, etc) but it also suggests most were probably not starting as freshmen and running for 4 years (unlike Mike Hart).

2. Michigan did try to recruit and did land some highly rated RBs - but for whatever reason, it just didn't pan out. So welcome Derrick Green, but I hope Brady Hoke and Fred Jackson also picked up a few 3 and 4 star backs.

3. ? Any way to detect synergy between OL and RB recruitment? That is, does landing 4 and 5 star RBs help land 4 and 5 star OL and vice versa? Or are they independent variables - neither OL and RB really seem affected by signings in the other group? I realize that this may be tricky to assess?