4 and 5 Star running backs: A fact finding mission

It would be interesting to see where/how injuries (blown knees, etc.) impacted NFL draft prospects.  

I like me some lists.  Nice work... RBs make a difference.... Offensive linemen make a huge difference.  It's been too long since we've had an every down sort of back with staying power.  Thanks for taking the time on this.

2005 was not a good year to be a 5-star. 

Also, California's had some good backs.

never will i understand how knowshon moreno went in the first round

.....many 4* and 5* players in college washed out without even having one 1000 yard season.

It is refreshing to see so many 1/2* guys got drafted. I wish you could continue to the defense side and see how that goes.

Who could forget Kregg Lumpkin

If Green doesn't choose Michigan today, this diary should be linked repeatedly in the meltdown thread(s) that ensue. It may save one of our members from taking his own life.

Thanks a bunch for this.  While you show that there is no guarantee with a blue chip RB recruit, this list also shows that a 5* RB is a pretty valuable commodity.  Most of the big-name guys on that list, who really lit it up, were 5*s.  It sure would be nice to have one...

We had so many 4 and 5 star busts during this period. At least we had a damn good 3 star for 4 years.

Thanks for the list. I remember a lot of these names from past recruiting stories. It's interesting to see what happened to them.

So of the five 4/5 star backs we've recruited since 2002, NONE of them have been drafted or had a 1000 yard season despite the fact that according to your research 73% of those backs get drafted, and 82% post a 1000 yard season.  Crazy.

Still can't believe the Lions drafted B Calhoun in the 3rd round. 3rd ROUND!!

Couldn"t you have waited to post this until after Green made his announcement.  If he doesn"t go Blue it"s all on you for this diary.

/s

Great list, thanks for putting it together. Since I assume this is a primer for the Derrick Green announcment, I think it would be beneficial to narrow the focus to backs who were similarly ranked to Green. If you look at Rivals from 2003-2010 and check out the backs who were ranked in the top 10 overall players in the nation, as Green is, you will see that the odds are in favor of Green having a nice, if not excellent, career.

2003 - Reggie Bush

2004 - Adrian Peterson

2005 - Jonathon Stewart

2006 - Beanie Wells

2007 - Joe McKnight

2008 - Darrel Scott

2009 - Bryce Brown, Trent Richardson

2010 - Marcus Lattimore

How do you like them apples?

My takeaway is that from 2005 until now, it seems that Rivals is getting more accurate with their high-star ratings.  I would imagine their process and better access to internet videos has improved their ratings system.  There's a lot of unrated NFL drafted running backs in 2006; not so much in 2012.

Seems like the recruiting sites have been getting increasingly better at gauging running backs.

There are a lot of names on these lists that I had forgotten about.  Nice work!

Thanks for doing this - helps put a rational perspective on things. Unlike some sports like basketball where getting one player can elevate a team from an also-ran to a Elite Eight or even Final Four contender, one highly rated high school RB can only do so much - too many other variables.

This diary (which I hope you'll keep up and possible expand to other positions like OL, DL, DB, QB) demonstrates a few points:

1. One player can only do so much - note that many of the RBs who went on to success in the NFL didn't rack up 3-4 1000 yd/seasons in college. This can be due to many reasons (playing behind a good starter, bad OL, etc) but it also suggests most were probably not starting as freshmen and running for 4 years (unlike Mike Hart).

2. Michigan did try to recruit and did land some highly rated RBs - but for whatever reason, it just didn't pan out. So welcome Derrick Green, but I hope Brady Hoke and Fred Jackson also picked up a few 3 and 4 star backs.

3. ? Any way to detect synergy between OL and RB recruitment? That is, does landing 4 and 5 star RBs help land 4 and 5 star OL and vice versa? Or are they independent variables - neither OL and RB really seem affected by signings in the other group? I realize that this may be tricky to assess?

Damn you gordie, this was going to be my topic for Hokepoints this week.