3 point FG Attempts vs Offensive Efficiency

Great analysis. Thanks. You do a good job of not confusing correlation with causation. In this case, it doesn't seem too surprising, given Beilein's offense, that this would hold true. M tends to either get back-door cuts and easy shots or 3s. If a zone team forces us to shoot 3-pointers (ala NW), our best strategy may still be to take the open 3 rather than force something inside. I don't think the answer is to necessarily drive more (though in some cases *cough* THJ *cough*  yes, we should) but to take the best look we can get, acknowledging that we're at our best when able to take more 2s than 3s.

nice work.  20 3s is a lot anyway.  i wonder if the scouting report on us is to let us take 3s.

I did actually take a look at 3PA vs. Offensive Efficiency and pretty much came to the same conclusion that you did. Games like the last one at Northwestern where we shoot a bunch of threes and only make a few are less than ideal. Given our 3 point and 2 point percentages, our value of a three point shot is 1.071 points per shot, and our two point shot is worth 1.094 points per shot. Since I'm assuming that there's lower variance for two point shooting on a game-by-game basis, putting up more twos (which are often easier looks, particularly in the context of our offense) is the optimal strategy. Interestingly, we shot the fewest amount of threes all year at home against Ohio State, and won. We only made three.

You need to somehow account for the end of game hack fest action that occurs when we are leading by a couple possessions. That could dramatically increase the percieved importance of FTR in wins vs. losses.

-# of FTs attempted increases greatly for the team ahead in last few minutes of a game.I'm no actuary but I suggest two FT Rates:1 before last 3 minutes of game and 2 Rest of game          

 - An often overlooked stat is Reb Effiency  ie  % of missed shots rebounded by offense.Mich is woeful at both ends of the floor in this area.I'm curious if this is a "Beilins offense thing" or "Mich is a small team thing"  

You can't draw conclusions from data with such low R2.  The R2 is telling you that the percentage of the variation you're accounting for with this variable is 2-3%.  So of all the wild outcomes that can occur on the basketball court, the 3pt attempts can explain less than 3% of the result.

Don't get mislead by the fact that the conclusions line up in a way that you can rationalize - this data isn't conclusive at all.

I have watched them a few times this year, and saw the game against UConn today.  So the story goes in the Big East, limited scouting is done and you play how you play against everyone.  That seems to hold true with Syracuse.  They do something against everyone and they do it very well (primarily because it's practiced and practiced and practice); they run a 2-3 zone the majority of each game and do it well, forcing a team to be consistent at one thing (shooting 3's and getting to the middle and getting looks from there with a big man/more "outside" good shooting looks).  It's tough to beat them because it is hard to do that for an entire game and score more points than they're equally/greater quality offense.

As I was watching them today, I thought to myself, "How would Belein do with this matchup?".  I don't know why, but I would love to see a Beilein/Boeheim game.  I think THIS Michigan team, and I may be wrong and totally naive to Cuses' talent advantage(?) and quality of team they are, could hang and surprise people against that vaunted 2-3 Zone.  I think Michigan could hit "enough" shots, and I think if THJ was efficient playing aggresive ball and Smotz had a good rhythm they could give them fits, andTrey has the ability to attack that zone to propel the offense.  It may get a bit scary down low but I've seen these guys over-achieve enough against bigger teams that their size doesn't scare me.

Sorry, long post, but March gets me excited with all the many potential matchups.  Hope this was all relevent enough to the OP in regards to shooting.  Main point, against a tough defense like 'Cuse, I think Michigan's shooting efficiency (plus smart basketball Beilein can make them play) can play up to other teams.

Is that, like free throws, the numbers can be very different in the first 35 minutes and in the last five minutes. If you are 7 points down with 2 and change to play, you are likely to hoist a three, even if that's out of your offense. In other words, it could be that it was because Michigan was losing that they shot 20+ threes. Correlation does not imply causation!

Trimming the data - either by dumping the last shots taken, or by only including shots taken when the game was close - might provide some additional insight, though off course it may be really difficult to get that information. I kind of think hoops stats will be much better in another 10 years than they are right now.