The purpose of this diary is to track the roster as it changes between now and the start of the 2016 Michigan Football campaign. This will be updated in regards to recruiting and transfers as time progresses. I will leave the recruiting projections to those who know that best around here including Ace, Magnus, Alum96, etc. The only thing that I have attempted to project on my own is the renewal of fifth year seniors to be. We all know Harbaugh's policy that fifth year's are not guaranteed, and, therefore, I have taken a few of the redshirt juniors off of the roster already. My guesses with the Fifth Year Seniors are based on whether or not they were contributors this year. Hence Drake Johnson is projected to return and Tom Strobel is set for a firm handshake as he would not have played except for injuries to both Bryan Mone and Ryan Glasgow. Finally, I am going to take Jourdan Lewis and Jake Butt at their word about their desire to return since they have both made those statements publicly.

Rules (slightly different from version 1.0)

1. There are 5 categories which the players were divided between. The categories are Returning Contributors, Contributors Lost, Other Returners, Commits, and Targets.

2. Only what can be confirmed as fact will change my projection of the roster.

3. While the coaches are bound to the 85 scholarship rule my projection is not. If there are more than 85 players changes will come but I will not update the roster until the change(s) are made public.

4. What constitutes a Contributor is how much and how well the player contributed to the team. There are 5 levels 0=No positive contribution, 1=Slight contributor, 2=Contributor, 3=Significant Contributor, 4=Major Contributor

Measures used are:

• The UFR's from the year +3 or better=1 point (with the exception of the Offensive Line who gets all their points from UFR's and so +10=1 up to 4 points)
• The statistics from Michigan Football's official site=Better stats:More points
• Min. statistical requirements to gain points were as follows: Minimum of 30 yards receiving, 20 yards rushing, 75 yards passing, 6 tackles, and 3 game changing defensive plays (sacks, interceptions, forced and recovered fumbles).
• The Known friends and trusted associates standings. 3 or more points on the season=1 point
• Jake Rudock got a bonus point for leading the standings for the year.

5. I will not project grayshirts or attrition among the commits.

Version 1.0 can be found at the link below

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/2016-michigan-roster

This version sees two additions to the list of rules.

6. I call the first the Wilton Speight Hero Rule. Simply put, if a player fails to meet the other qualifications for a contributor but is instrumental in at least one Michigan victory they still qualify as a contributor.

7. The second will henceforth be known as the Jabrill Peppers rule. Any player who qualifies as at least a level 3 contributor on Offense and Defense automatically receives an extra point.

Without further ado, here it is...

Version 2.0

Top Contributors by UFR

1.Maurice Hurst +87 (Surprised me too that he is number 1.)

2. Chris Wormley +86

3. Ryan Glasgow +76.5( Beast mode pre-injury.)

4. Mason Cole +61.5 (He was clearly our best O-lineman this year)

5. Willie Henry +60

6. Jourdan Lewis +56.5 (Would have been more if teams hadn't stopped throwing at him)

7. Jabrill Peppers +50 (Only +3.5 on offense)

8. Taco Charlton +46

9. Graham Glasgow +45.5 (Long live The Order of St. Kovacs!)

10. Ben Braden +39.5

Worst by UFR

1. Joe Bolden -20.5 Yikes!

2. Ty Isaac -7 (No wonder he disappeared after Maryland even post doghouse.)

Contributors by levels

• Level 4

Jabrill Peppers-3.5 on Offense and 3 on Defense (Only needs to add game-changing plays on defense to force the creation of level 5.)

Mason Cole-see above for his UFR.

Graham Glasgow- see Cole.

Ben Braden- I'm not going to deny him over a half point.

De'Veon Smith- Contributed in every way he could. Mandatory. http://mgoblog.com/content/one-frame-time-byu

Jehu Chesson-Might turn into full Mario Manningham as a Senior after major progression this year.

Jake Rudock-We would not be a 9 win team without him.  Who would have said THAT post-Utah. All Hail Harbaugh!

Chris Wormley- Started the year in a zone and never really left it. Only thing that keeps him from being nationally elite is the lack of a dominant pass rush ability.

Maurice Hurst- Probably suffered from the Ryan Glasgow injury as much as anyone on the team. With Glasgow he can save enough energy to be a terror on passing downs.

Desmond Morgan-Yes. He really was that good. Not bad for a 3* out of West Michigan who was a late pickup IIRC.

Jourdan Lewis-Wants his degree more than NFL money. True Michigan Man in the best sense of the phrase. Should be a Captain next year, IMO.

Ryan Glasgow-He is one of two guys I am going to veto my system on. The numbers made him a 3. The joy of this exercise is that I can say that's stupid and make them the fours they are anyway.

Jake Butt- is the other one. He may be the Offensive Captain next year. He spurned OSU in high school and spurned the NFL now. Best Tight End I have ever seen at Michigan. (Important caveat: I'm way too young to have seen Jim Mandich or Ron Kramer).

• Level 3

Joe Kerridge-Every one of us has certain players that we have an affinity for regardless of what happens. Joe Kerridge has always been one of mine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6y2Y9i5Sj0

Sione Houma-Scored his first touchdown twice. I was among those in attendance. It was cool to see him get rewarded for staying around and continuing to work throughout his career.

Drake Johnson- He was not the same player this year but he still performed whenever he was called on with whatever he had left. It is really a shame that those injuries seem to have stolen his burst.

Amara Darboh-became a very good blocker this year and treated us to an OBJ catch against BYU. http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/124246/watch-michigans-amara-darboh-makes-odell-beckham-worthy-catch

Willie Henry-Started to realize his potential this year.

Taco Charlton-May be due for a stellar Senior year. We can dream, anyway.

RJS- became a steady presence who could be relied on this year.

Jeremy Clark-Clearly the best position switch this year. Number 2 corner by season's end.

• Level 2

Mario Ojemudia- was on pace to be a 3 or 4 before the injury. Brian's comment in the Maryland UFR said it best "Goodnight, sweet prince".

Matt Godin-was not the same player after his own injury. Not sure if health or competition was the bigger factor.

James Ross- had a somewhat limited role but performed when he got to play. +15.5 UFR for the season. (Second best LB score).

Ben Gedeon-had good and bad moments but ended up with a positive score. +5 UFR

Jarrod Wilson- was truly a boring safety. We will miss you.

Dymonte Thomas- progressed as the season went along. Should start as a Senior.

Erik Magnuson- Technically he is a 2.5. Solid, but far from spectacular.

A.J. Williams-Became the Offensive version of Wilson. A boring blocking tight end. He even became a bit of an aerial threat.

Derrick Green-Existed in spurts.

Moe Ways-flashed promise as a blocker and contributed a little as a receiver.

• Level 1

Kyle Kalis-Technically, a 1.5. This is a disappointment.

Henry Poggi-Possible move to FB?

Khalid Hill

Ian Bunting

Ty Isaac-see my summary of him above.

Grant Perry-Not much for a burned RS. May start next year or be replaced by Nate Johnson.

Drake Harris-Still a beanpole. Hope is fading.

Wilton Speight-Why, yes, Wilton. You should help us beat Minnesota! :D

Joe Bolden-Lots of tackles. Lots of mistakes. Few real plays.

Channing Stribling-became a whipping boy before being benched. -4 UFR for the year.

Delano Hill-Hugely disappointed in this result. -6 UFR.

Wayne Lyons-barely played.

Brandon Watson

• Level 0

Grant Newsome and Karan Higdon would really bother me if not for my faith in Harbaugh. I won't even list the other 0's unless people ask.