Known Unknowns: Future events

Unknown Unknowns: I don't know

The Tiers:

Predicting worse than 130 is just mean and that's not a goal of mine. A performance at or below level requires an unskilled player or a lot of bad things to stack on each other. Either way I don't expect the guy to be a significant threat. I simply reference those things in the thesis about my expectation. Likewise predicting over 145 takes a really good situation. Precision beyond this is just asking to be wrong.

2015 Post Mortem

Out of the 14 QBs in the league I got 7 right, 5 wrong, Rudock was pretty close to the allowed tolerance, and Sudfled exceeded a pretty optimistic outlook. I’ll take it.

Michigan’s 2016 OOC Opponents

Perry Hills, Maryland, SR, 3 Stars

Hills got the nod but this has to be pretty tenuous. Durkin’s choices were INT machine1, INT machine 2, or a NOOB (ie. INT machine 3). What’s there to say here? MD’s QB were God awful last year. They should have run more than they did especially when the QBs are tossing INTs like candy at a parade. WTF. The new OC should be able to figure out that throwing the ball isn't the most awesome idea with this team but coaches can be stubborn mofos sometimes. Maryland’s OL is pretty green, and there’s regime change, so this could be a tough deal to watch.

Projection: 130

Bart Houston, Wisconsin, SR, 3 Stars

Regime change sucks. I think Joel Stave is a guy that had a lot of potential but got wrapped up in the churn of regime change and could never get back to the form he showed in inaugural season behind center. With his exit, Wisconsin unwraps a new QB, a red shirt senior with little playing experience. Breaking in a new guy is takes time, so it helps that Wisconsin has a lot of support players around Houston with plenty of experience returning at both the skill positions and the OL. If it were me, I’d go with the other guy so I didn’t have to break in another QB next year but what do I know, I’m just a nerd.

Projection: 130

David Blough, Purdue, SO, 3 Stars

If you’ve kept up with these diaries over the years you’ll remember that I largely attribute completion percentage and interception rates to the QB’s skill and YPA and TD rate to support and scheme. Bearing that in mind, Blough’s freshman campaign wasn’t that bad a starting point. The team around him was not very good though and there’s just no way one player can make up for those many problems. Looking forward, Purdue’s OL has some upperclassmen but isn't very deep. Markell Jones is a decent back, so if Purdue can find some pass catchers on the outside, their offense could be OK.

Projection: 130

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern, SO, 4 Stars

True freshman, OL decimated by injuries, tough schedule. And they won 10 games anyway. Give it up for Pat FItzgerald y’all. The OL now returns a bunch of upperclassmen with starting experience plowing the way for RB Justin Jackson. The receiving corps needs to find some guys so a run first offense is probably the way to go here. Baby steps…

Projection: 130

Trace McSorley, Penn State, SO, 3 Stars

It appears I may have set my expectations for Christian Hackenberg juuust a bit high but these things happen from time to time. This year Penn State will be breaking in a new QB as well as unpacking a new scheme (spread, no huddle, sometime with tempo) which I don’t think is a terrible idea; might as well get all the growing pains in the passing game over with at the same time. Besides, Saquon Barkley is a beast at running back so the coaches can protect their passing game with their running game. McSorley will have experience receivers to throw to and the OL is also bringing back a lot of starting experience for the first time in a while. Both of these things help stabilize the situation. McSorley should be fine.

Projection: 130

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota, SR, 2 Stars

I’m not ready to go full McShay—‘cause you never go full McShay—but, the fine grain numbers do seem to support an upward sloping trend in Leidner’s play from 2014 to 2015. Furthermore Bill Connolly shows an inflection point during last season during his preview of the Golden Gophers over at SB Nation. Now, his overall passer rating stayed flat year over year but the whole point of this exercise is to look past the top line numbers and try to figure out where a dude stands on his own and where he needs some help. Leidner’s completion percentage and interception rates both improved last season; it was the scheme/support components (YPA, TD rate) that pulled his rating down. That said, 130 isn’t setting the world on fire but what can you expect from a guy who’s as much a fullback as he is a quarterback. This year Minnesota brings back a lot of production at the skill positions but lost a lot on the OL though they do return 3 players with starting experience there. There’s a but of regime change too (new OC) but it doesn’t sound like the offensive philosophy will be drastically different. If the line holds up, I can see Leidner being a candidate for this year’s Stanzi leap.

Projection: 130

Tyler O'Connor, Michigan State, SR, 3 Stars

I’m of the opinion the Kirk Cousins is the best QB Mark Dantonio has had at Michigan State but Connor Cook enjoyed the best teams (specifically the defenses) Dantonio’s had. Cook also had way better receivers than Cousins had. This is not to say that Cook was bad, just that the support systems around him were peaking as he came into the job. He did his job well by avoiding mistakes and getting the ball to the likes of Tony Lippet and Aaron Burbridge. Having NFL Offensive Tackles is also nice. So the question is clear: is this year’s MSU offensive squad capable of supporting a new starter at QB?

The OL gets the benefit of the doubt from me. They have two returning starters and a bunch of others guys with game time experience due to injuries to players ahead of them on last year’s depth chart. They also have plenty of upperclassmen to plug in. The unit might not be an asset per se but I find it very unlikely that it will be a liability. They’ll be fine.

Which means that the running game should also be fine against normal teams, which means the staff should be able to take the pressure off O’Connor unless he or the situation warrants otherwise. His season will be schedule dependent. I don’t see O’Connor having a better first year that Connor Cook did.

Projection: 130

Wes Lunt, Illinois, SR, 4 Stars

On paper Lunt should be a decent QB. His Interception rate is really good and his completion percentage is better than you’d expect given the passer rating. Illinois was a daggum tire fire all year and that’s a tough position to be successful in. RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn has the potential to be pretty good but Illinois’ OL is kind of thin even though they have 3 experienced upper classmen returning. Regime Change is typically not a good thing but compared to last season’s drama this is relative stability. I’m giving Wes the benefit of the doubt because doing so never ever bites me in the ass.

Projection: 135

Chris Laviano, Rutgers, JR, 3 Stars

Last year was a good starting point for Laviano who showed decent accuracy (CMP%) though he had the typical poor decision making (INT%) of a first year starter. Losing Leonte Carroo would be tough on for any QB but Rutgers brings back some good options at WR and most of their RB carries. Their OL should be reasonable too. Their OC is an Urban Meyer, Tom Herman guy so it’ll be interesting to see how Laviano’s skillset gets folded into that mix. I can see him taking a good step toward good here but think he’s still a year out from being a major threat. Famous last words.

Projection: 135

Tommy Armstrong Jr., Nebraska, SR, 3 stars

How in the hell does Tommy Armstrong have any eligibility left? Anyway, Armstrong’s passer rating regressed a bit in 2015 from where it was in 2014 but this is another situation where the top level number is a bit deceiving. Tommy’s completion percentage has steadily improved since his first year at starter and his interception rate has at least stabilized. Now, he still has a long way to go in those areas but the point is that he is in fact getting incrementally better. So, the slide in passer rating can most likely be attributed to the overhaul to the offensive scheme the Huskers underwent when Bo Pelini got the boot.

A year later, that transition should be mostly complete. Moreover, the receiving corps returns intact and they have talented players in the backfield. The problem will be that they have to rebuild their OL. Tommy’s athleticism will be an asset in that scenario and I can see him. After doing this for so long I’ve seen many players I thought were maxed out go into eff it mode their senior seasons and put together a season that defies their own gravity. Ricky Stanzi, Tommy Reese, Gary Nova, Nathan Scheelhasse, Kain Colter. Hell, you could the case that Jake Rudock is another one.

Projection: 135

Richard Lagow, Indiana, JR, 3 Stars

In the 2013 version of this diary I opened the Hoosier section with the following:

…if you want wins then bring the ruckus ‘cause Indiana’s offense aint nothin’ to [mess] with /wutang clan.

Uh, yeah. They have great receivers returning and running backs with potential. They lose some great talent off the OL so that could be somewhat problematic. I boil all that down to thinking that Kevin Wilson will throw the ball even more than he usually does. So, Lagow could put up some big numbers. #chaosteam

Projection: 135

C.J. Beathard, Iowa, SR, 3 Stars

Without the benefit of hindsight or Harbaugh, rolling with Beathard was probably a good move for Ferentz to make. Beathard turned in a legitimately good performance last year. But the support stuff around him needs to improve for him to break through to great. Even though they bring quite a few people back, it’s hard for me to see Beathard jump up to Drew Tate level. I think he’ll be good but I cant bring myself to fade the odds too hard here.

Projection: 140

JT Barrett, Ohio State, JR 4 Stars

JT Barrett’s 2015 season is a very good example of how a player’ performance can be derailed if just one of the prism factors gets jacked up—in this case I think it was scheme. Passer rating can be thought of a signal comprised of component signals. If all of those component signals peak together, the QB has a monster season. In most cases however, come of the components decline as others rise and their effects offset each other. In still other cases, the signals decline together and their effects compound into a nightmare (see: Michigan 2008). The charts at left are cartoons I drew to illustrate this theory but I bet Connolly’s database could be analyzed to synthesize real versions if these signals.

Anyway, After OSU took home the 2014 title, then OC Tom Herman cashed in and went to run his own show in Houston. I thought his departure would be absorbed because Urban Meyer is an aiight offensive guy himself. However, the numbers show some things here. While JT’s interception rate could improve, the only contributing factor that is way off kilter is his YPA; that’s a scheme thing. Then the drama with the QB battle made matters worse by limiting both players ability to learn whatever wrinkles they needed to learn in transitioning to the new OC however minor those were. Also, the lack of top shelf weaponry on the outside made the whole thing sketchy. Then they try to pass, not run, to beat MSU in bad weather. I mean, ha ha and all that, but this whole shebang smacks of a case where the coaches got to cute for their own good.

This year the scheme issues should recede and Barrett should be expected to remain a dangerous passer. However, OSU’s roster turned over like whoa and they now find themselves in a reload situation. The little experience OSU returns on offense is concentrated in the interior of the OL which is probably the best place to have it considering Meyer’s offense. No doubt the Buckeyes have plenty of talent, but even great recruits have a break in period and player development is never instantaneous.

Projection: 140

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Dude, Michigan, Chosen and Crafted by Jim M.F. Harbaugh

Last year, I spilled coffee over the whole deal by getting the spelling of Rudock’s name wrong and also getting his flippin’ visage wrong. Way to ruin any semblance of your own fake credibility, yo. While those mistakes were embarrassing, they were also honest. Ultimatelty, all I know is data. I start with that, sprankle in some logic and creativity, then hope real hard. Sometimes it turns to gold. This shit is alchemy, man.  And I love it.

Jim Harbaugh loves his shit too. Except with him, its science. Maybe not science the way Newton or Darwin knew it but his results are too consistent. Too predictable.

Check this chart out:

That is the average Passer Rating by Year since 1969. I mean, I cant explain it but I’m not about to question it either. I don’t need to understand and I don’t need to agree. I just need to believe. The data knows things I cannot. Maybe if something changes I can nerd it out, but the formula was created in the early ‘70’s and ain't a damned thing changed. I bet Harbaugh could explain it. He’d lose me after 20 minutes but I’d still hang out just because.

Let me show you something else:

Those are all the QB seasons any Michigan fan has seen since 1980; that’s about when they started changing the rules. That’s when it became the passing game we know now. On an era adjusted basis, Harbaugh has two of the top five seasons under center and that’s before you start discounting for smaller sample sizes (below 200 attempts) and precision errors. Harbaugh is top 10 in average era adjusted passer rating for QBs with at least two seasons above 200 attempts since 1980; out of all of them.

Harbaugh also knows things we cannot. Then he knows competition, he knows quaterbacking, and he knows Meeechigan. What the hell is there on a football field on a Saturday?

Projection: Over 9000

Happy Football.