2015 Michigan State Football Preview

Submitted by alum96 on

Disclaimer:  My previews of Big 10 teams are based on viewing of 2014 games of said teams plus extensive reading of local and national previews of that team.  I might be wrong in my assessment any one team or any specific unit of that team.  But that's clearly doubtful. (!!)  No, on a serious note I enjoy people who comment who live locally to these teams or is an opposing fan - helps us get a better perspective so if you are one feel free to add to the discussion. 

I also write this with the assumption Jake Rudock is the starting QB as the matrix of possibilities is too great trying to predict things with Shane Morris as a start.

Earlier previews: 

TL;DR

Michigan State has enjoyed football success of late not seen since the early to mid 1960s.  While the downfall of PSU and UM in that time has contributed, a slow buildup of a program has taken place under Scowl Dantonio independent of other teams issues, cresting with back to back 11+ win seasons and 2 major bowl victories.  In many ways as we enter 2015 there has been a major role reversal in the Michigan and Michigan State programs... MSU brings a very experienced, highly ranked, talented team bursting with NFL draft picks while Michigan is a scrappy underdog program trying to find it's way.   This was very much the pattern in reverse for decades.  With an astouding 21 fifth year seniors on the roster (UM had 1 in Desmond Morgan until Rudock and Lyons showed up), a schedule that only has them leaving the state of Michigan once until November, a senior NFL calibar QB and a lot of strength in the trenches, I don't see 2015 as being the year Sparty takes a major step back.  2016 could be a different story.  And no I have not been in the chorus of "just wait until next year, MSU can't keep this up" for the past 4 years.... but 2016 poses a lot of serious challenges namely the extremely well developed 2010 and 2011 classes fade away, a new QB must be broken in and most of MSU's very talented front 7 on defense disappears, along with their 2 best OL.  But that's a 2016 problem - we still have to get through 2015.

The past two years Michigan State has had a great run of almost no key injuries (usually it's something like a 4th LB who gets hurt...one can speculate on why such a run of "good fortune"), and beating all the teams they should rather than getting upset as is the norm once or twice a year in most programs.  Sparty No! has been replaced with an immense resiliency which is annoying to watch as an opposing fan. 

"Sparty, No!" is dead. Seven years of sadness have been swallowed up by eight years of growth. Sure, there have still been disappointments, but from a quality standpoint, the job Dantonio has done has been stunning. He inherited a team that had ranked 75th in the F/+ rankings in 2006 and engineered the following run: 26th, 32nd, 31st, 31st, 14th, 20th, 12th, 11th

Dantonio's staff develops players well and he has a key eye for coaching talent.  DC Narduzzi has gone on to Pitt but in his place are 2 guys who have been with Dantonio for over a decade so I don't expect much to change - the main place you might miss Narduzzi is in "in game" motivation. 

Image result for sparty statue painted maize blue

MSU has built IMO a perfect defense for the QB challenged Big 10 - they play "break don't bend" and devote a ton of resources to stopping the run, which is now top ranked almost every year.  They challenge the QB to make throws down the field - if you can do it, you can exploit them all day.  (Baylor, Oregon, OSU)  But if you don't have a QB who can throw a quality 18 yard out pattern repeatedly 15x a game to find the seams in the defense (which most Big 10 teams seem to lack) you are SOL.   This defense style would be exposed a lot more in the Pac 12, Big 12, and SEC - where QB play is far superior to the Big 10 - but again perfect for the Big 10 and ACC where a lot of run based offenses with mediocre QBs reside.

Obviously finding Cook - who in the first few games of 2013 looked like a bottom end MAC QB - was a boon, and lost in the focus on the top flight defense has been the development of the OL the past 2 years.  What was once MSU's worst unit annually in the first 2/3rds of Dantonio's era has been IMO the hidden success story of MSU football in 2013, 2014.  Cook rarely gets sacked or hurried and as Hackenberg and Gardner know - that is a luxury in the NCAA game and let's you develop confidence and avoid mistakes.   MSU did lose some skilled position talent to graduation (and a top notch corner) but has potentially 3 first round draft picks on their team, plus a bevy of later round picks including All American center Jack Allen.  Both lines in 2015 could be among the nation's best so if you believe football is won in the trenches (and with a stable solid QB) you have to like the chances of MSU as a football team, even with some holes on their roster.  Unided they stand.

Image result for sparty no

 

Last year

MSU had a funny year - they beat almost no one of note in the regular season yet were contending for a playoff spot until OSU came into their house and ransacked it.  As their Cotton Bowl ring showed their best regular season win was over a lost at sea Brady Hoke coached 5-7 disaster.  Even throwing that game out their next "best" win was by 5 pts over a Nebraska team that lost by 400 to Wisconsin and was an Ameer Abdullah last second run away from being upset by FCS McNeese State... at home.  Those were their 2 huge regular season wins.  

The S&P+ rank for MSU's defense was a now normal for them #9 .  The FEI suffered with a #40 rank, this was mostly due to the amount of big plays MSU gave up in the secondary last year.  I call their style "break don't bend".   You have to beat MSU mostly with big plays - it is very very difficult to put together a 12 play, 78 drive together against them. To that end MSU scored very well in all FEI measures expect "Explosive Drives - the percentage of each opponent offense's drives that average at least 10 yards per play.", where they ranked 87th.   Contrast that to their "Methodical Drives - the percentage of each opponent offense's drives that run 10 or more plays." rank which was #1 in the country.  Again it is very difficult to put a long sustainted drive up on this defense.  Break, don't bend - you either get a 30-40 yard gain on MSU leading to a short drive, or your offense is stuffed in short order.

On a small tangent, MSU has avoided losses that plague most top 10 teams the past few years for a specific reason IMO.  Most teams get upset when their offense has an off day and an opposing offense has the firepower to have a big day.   Meanwhile MSU has rode a stellar 2013 and very good, not great 2014 defense to a series of wins over offensively challenged Big 10 teams.  So when their offense has an off day the opposing offense cannot take advantage of it.  A middle tier team in the Pac 12 can put 40 on you any day i.e. Cal or Arizona or USC ... so can middle tier Big 12s West Virginia, Texas Tech, or Oklahoma State.  In the Big 10 the equivalents are Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, or Northwestern - not the stuff to make a defensive coordinator shake.  So even days MSU offense is down the lack of ability of opposing offenses (and MSU's very good run stuff defense and lack of turnovers) makes it difficult to upset them.  It's a powerful cocktail - you have to go back to 2010 and the big fart at Iowa to find the last real upset of a good MSU team by a team with inferior talent - that's impressive...unfortunately.  (2012 MSU was not a good team and yes they got waxed by 2011 Nebraska and Notre Dame but those teams had as much or more talent than MSU) 

Image result for dantonio no respect

After a play it safe offense in 2013 while MSU searched for a new QB and new RB, the training wheels came off in 2014 as the offense exploded to rank FEI 14th, S&P+ 10th.  Along with OSU this was one of the 2 legit balanced offenses in the league.  Wisconsin's 1 dimensional attack being the only other that really ranked in the top 40.

The strength of Michigan State's offense was its explosiveness. Lippett and Keith Mumphery combined to average 18.6 yards per catch, and primary running backs Jeremy Langford and Nick Hill combined to show jets in the open field, each averaging at least 5.5 yards per carry. Despite a slow tempo, the Spartans ranked 18th in the country with 75 gains of 20-plus yards.

Looking at the NCAA stats which look at nothing but total yards given up and gained to rank units, MSU's offense was 11th, and defense 8th. 

What else was MSU good at?

  • Rushing defense - #1 in the country
  • Rushing offense - #19
  • Scoring offense - #7
  • Turnover margin - #2
  • Kickoff returns - #15
  • Team sacks - #8
  • Sacks allowed - #4
  • Tackles for loss allowed - #4
  • Time of possession - #1

Unfortunately this is a very sound way to win a lot of football games.  All 3 units contributed and in many ways it was a more explosive version of Tressel ball.  Keep the ball (TOP #1 in the country), win the turnover battle (#2 in the country), dominate the lines (#8 in sacks and #4 in sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed), and take away 1 thing from opposing offenses (the run game).  MSU rarely went backwards on any offensive play setting up easier 2nd downs.  They dictated that you had to pass to beat them.  Teams that could, did (or came close to it).  But that was a minority of teams on their schedule.

Image result for michigan state sad fans

The statistical weakness were few:

  • Punt returns - #101
  • Kickoff return defense - #95
  • Punt return defense - #107
  • Net punting - #98
  • Passing yards allowed - #60

So aside from the passing defense, their main weaknesses were in the return game - both defending it and generating yards from it.

Individually the offense was led by good players at all the skill positions (Cook, Langford, Lippett) a top 30 ranked OL which was excellent in pass protect, with a quite good TE (Price) to boot.  MSU could attack you in many ways, held the ball for long drives when needed, but could be explosive at other times, and didn't turn the ball over much at all.

The defense was the defense - a ferocious run stopping defense that creates lots of turnovers but could be exploited through the air if you had a valid QB.  It dominated average to poor offenses and suffered vs elite offenses (the same offenses that would make any defense in the country suffer). 

Oregon, Ohio State, and Baylor, three top-10 offenses, combined to average 7.9 yards per play and 45.3 points against the Spartans. Everybody else averaged only 4.1 and 14.4, respectively.

The loss of Dennard hurt at one corner and the general safety play took a step back from 2013's levels despite returning 2 veterans in Drummond / RJ Williamson and adding talented freshman Montae Nicholson.   While the corners get all the attention by the media, from this set of eyes the real stress in that defense is the safeties.  One is usually deep up in the box to contribute to run stuffing so these guys really must be assignment sound and able to read the game.  When they screw up it's very apparent to the whole world because the scheme doesn't protect them.  But it usually doesn't get to that vs 80% of MSU Big 10 opponents for reasons outlined earlier in this piece.

The kicking game was an adventure as Michael Geiger had a sophomore slump hitting only 14 of 22 kicks after going 15 of 16 as a freshman.  Goofball (and Faux Pelini foe) Mike Sadler is gone from the punting game.

 

This year

MSU had 4 candidates to leave to the league early post 2014 in QB Cook, OT Conklin (Kiper gave him a borderline 1st/2nd round grade), CB Waynes, and DE Calhoun.  All but Waynes returned boosting MSU's prospects for 2015, boosting returning starters to 13ish (6 offense, 7 defense).  Cook and Calhoun are part of a massive group of 21 fifth year seniors - a benefit to a program that redshirts nearly all but 2-3 players a class.  This might change go forward as MSU's recruiting classes tick up and higher ceiling players enter the program but for now that is the system.

While most will point to road games vs OSU, Nebraska, Michigan and a home game vs Oregon to call MSU's schedule "tough" it is really not too bad at all.  In fact they only leave the state of Michigan once until November - almost unheard of.  That is due to a road game at Western and a road game in Ann Arbor.   The crossovers are Purdue and Tommy Armstrong Jr led (and Abdullah/Gregory less) Nebraska - nothing too daunting.  MSU will most likely be favored in all but 1 game this year - hard to call that daunting. 

Image result for michigan state locker room misspelling

 

Western Michigan may catch the Spartans by surprise in game 1 as its in their stadium, they actually have a legit QB (something MSU rarely has faced the past 2 years), and a bad ass WR, and MSU may be peeking ahead to Oregon.  That said, while I expect WMU to score (maybe in mid 20s) MSU should dominate the trenches in that game and their offense should roll over Western's D.  Feels like a 42-24 type of game.  A top 10 matchup with Mariotta less Oregon at home is game 2 - the trick here is will FCS transfer Vernon Adams be ready to play and will 3 weeks of camp be enough to have him ready to run Oregon's complex and fast paced offense.  He is a talent for sure and MSU's secondary questions will be significant in this game if Oregon gets the right QB to exploit it.  After that MSU has an easy month with Air Force (which only runs i.e. exactly what MSU is built to stop), CMU (a storied rival for MSU!!), Purdue, and Rutgers.  Purdue was actually the only team to stress MSU's D much in Big 10 play last year (ex OSU) as their young QB Appleby was able to complete passes of >10 yards repeatedly (drawing oohs and aahs across the Big 10) and Purdue mimicked Oregon's playbook....without Oregon's speed.  Starting Oct 17th the gauntlet finally ratchets up as trips to Ann Arbor, Lincoln, and Columbus beckon as does a visit from what could be a 8-10 win PSU.  Maryland and Indiana will provide nice snacks in between.

 

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MSU should have a top 5 defensive line nationally, and a top 10ish offensive line once again very good in pass protect especially.  These units match up well with most any team in the nation - the question will be the development of the skill positions ex QB/TE on offense and the development of the secondary, especially corners on defense.

While their top 2 running backs left (Langford, Hill) when you have a good OL you can generally plug in a borderline NFL talent and do very well - UM did that for 4 decades.  The WRs look to be more balanced this year as Lippett is gone but a lot of players with experience return.  Josiah Price is a very good TE in Jake Butt's mold.  Barring injury to Cook this looks to be another very good offense, anchored by the OL and QB with a young core of running backs and experienced set of WRs.

On defense the DL could be elite if former 5 star Lawrence Thomas builds on his last 3-4 games last year when the light bulb seemed to finally turn on.  After being position switched all over the field Thomas was bulked up to be a DT in 2014 and now is being pushed out wide to replace the very reliable and underrated Marcus Rush.  With Calhoun back, and Malik McDowell ready to take a sophmore jump after a quite good freshman campaign, and loads of depth at DT, the DL is stacked.  LBs also are a veteran group - essentially the front 7 is (a) yet another Bullough @ MLB, (b) McDowell and (c) five 5th year seniors.  The questions are all in the secondary as RJ Williamson looks to rebound from a meh year, Nicholson looks to make a jump after a very good freshman year, and MSU looks for answers at the corners.  Of course Dantonio is a CB guru.

With special teams MSU obviously will be looking to improve in all facets - this was their main weakness in 2014.  Geiger will need to rebound and Sadler replaced.  MSU did bring in the country's #1 ranked punter, Jake Hartbarger.

Bill Connelly's always fantastic analysis is here.  If you really want to poke your eye out and read about Sparty position by position go here.

 

MSU Offense

Let's be clear - lots of production was lost with Lippett and Langford last year.  Both players sort of came out of nowhere (an annoying theme with MSU).  Lippett was a drop happy corner/wide receiver his first few years and then exploded as 2014 launched for 1200 yards.  Langford was another position switch guy who was behind Riley Bullough of all people to begin 2013 at RB.  He then took the reigns for a very productive 2 year reign including 1500 yards last year. 

That said MSU has usually had a very stout running game in the Dantonio era with any # of backs.  The gun branding one (Williams) is back off suspension and the MSU fanbase is high on a # of untested prospects like Madre London.  MSU also plucked the #4 RB in the country out of Ohio in 2015 in Larry Scott.  Expect more of a committee approach in 2015 at this position.  

While Lippett (and Mumphrey are gone) there are a second tier of WRs such as Kings ("he's a playmaker!"), Burbridge, and Shelton.  No matter how hard Kings tries to get kicked off the team Dantonio won't let him - he is a playmaker who gets the most YAC and is the 1 guy who actually seems a threat on an otherwise crappy punt return team.  Burbridge has been an underachiever relative to his recruiting status but is generally "Darboh like".   Shelton is a slot guy who seems to run 3 end arounds a game.  There are other names like Troup and Madaris who will creep into the 2 deep and maybe some contribution will come from a true freshman - there are a lot of options there.   Heck, even DeAnthony Arnett may get into the show this year after a surprise redshirt year in 2014.  And Josiah Price (26 catches, 382 yards) is a very very good TE.

Image result for cook twitter connor prank

Throwing to all these guys is Connor Cook who many on the blog still seem to be in disbelief is not a 6th round draft choice.   Its almost impossible to forecast Cook's ability at the NFL level since he has been protected in a very warm cocoon due to that OL for 2 years straight.  Which won't happen in the NFL.  When pressured he seems to do dumb thing but pressure rarely gets to him and really what he does in the NFL doesnt mean a damn thing for the 2015 NCAA season.  He is not a high % completion guy (59%) but he has a big arm, throws very well on the move (IMO better than when in the pocket and his feet jiggle), and has no memory.  He can throw 3 really stupid passes in a row and then throw 4 rockets 30 yards down the field.  He seems to actually struggle more on the 7 yard swing pass than a 22 yard out pattern.  He also has an amazing ability to have 90% of his INTs dropped the past 2 years... a very valuable commodity for a QB.  Hence only 8 INTs last year despite 365 attempts. He is a big kid and mobile enough to cause you to at least respect the run - ask Delano Hill.

Not much proven behind Cook if an injury arises.  Tyler O'Connor has not impressed me much in limited time on the field, while if you only took scrimmage stats of Damien Terry (which MSU loves to release) at face value he's the next Steve Young + Donovan McNabb + Russell Wilson in one.  Reality would point to something less than that.  Many expected one of these 2 QBs to get specific packages created for them last year when in reality Cook played just about the whole year except for massive blowouts early.

Anchoring this offense is possibly the best OL in Dantonio's era.   A multiple All American center in Jack Allen, a potential first round tackle in 0 star Jack Conklin (who handled Bosa and Gregory - both 1st round picks incredibly well last year), along with 3 other dudes.  One of those dudes is Jack's younger brother Brian who like Mason Cole for UM played - and played as well as you can ask for a true freshman.   Another guy is Donavon Clark who has 19 starts.  Kodi Kieler and his 7 starts seems likely to be the 5th guy.  While 2 OL peeps from last year graduated, MSU generally doesnt just stick with 5 guys on the OL but rotates in 7-8 for depth purposes.  So when 1 graduates they dont start from scratch with a new one.  Obviously losing either Allen or Conklin to injury would be a big issue however.

MSU Defense

MSU's defense lost one of its stars in CB Trae Waynes.  DE Marcus Ruch was a warrior and played all 4 years, a very unheralded player IMO.  S Drummond probably should have left for the NFL a year earlier - his stock was super high post 2013 Rose Bowl; last year he was exposed and fell from a projected 2nd/3rd rounder to an UDFA.  Less big of a loss was MLB Taiwan Jones who is being replaced by the 185th Bullough brother. 

Tangent warning:  In a few generations I expect the entire MSU team to be Allens and Bulloughs.  Riley is the 2nd to last Bullough in this generation and after his brother finishes off in a few years we'll be done with Bulloughs for 15 years or until this generation's kids are ready to enter MSU.  Hopefully whatever Max was doing at MSU to get suspended doesn't hurt his ability to produce kids. (ohhhh low blow - had to throw one in, it's Sparty!)

Back to your regularly scheduled non snark:  It's a tale of 2 defenses - the front 7 should be great, with tons of experience mixed with very talented youngsters while the back 4 is questionable. 

Image result for shilique calhoun

Up front you have 5th year senior Calhoun at one DE, with 5th year senior Lawrence Thomas flashing out from DT to the other DE.  No different then we are asking of Wormley potentially.  Backup DE Demetrious Cooper has seemingly been the "next big thing" for 2 years now according to the hype.  Inside you have McDowell who had a ton of playing time - he was undisciplined at times but you could see playmaking ability as well and any 18 year old playing in that pile of havoc impresses me.  The other DT is going to be one of two 5th year seniors, Joel Heath or Damon Knox.  Behind them are 5th year senior Ed Davis, and 5th year senior Darrien Harris bookmarking junior Riley Bullough.  I guess we cannot assume Bullough will just be a machine at MLB but he too started flashing very good playmaking ability in the final few MSU games I watched last year. 

The safeties should be ok with an extremely athletic and talented Montae Nicholson (who somehow Hoke stopped recruiting) making a freshman to sophmore jump (where talented players often surge), and RJ Williamson is solid if not spectacular.   The corners are big question marks... MSU resorted to making Lippett a 2 way player late last year when sophomore Darian Hicks was destroyed by OSU and was sent to the bench.  Hicks was in the mix for 1 spot this year but seems to be hit by mono so I wouldnt expect him to be back until late in the year with the associated weight loss, lack of reps.  Heralded recruit Demetrious Cox - who was a S earlier in his MSU days - moves over to 1 corner, and any # of dudes from seniors to freshmen seem in play for the other corner.  Senior Arjen Colquhoun and sophomore Vayante Copeland seem to be the clubhouse favorites to start. 

This feels a lot like a carbon copy of the 2014 defense - it will be prone to exploitation through the air and ridiculously hard to run on.  So you need a good QB to unlock it.  Full stop.  Maybe the holes in the secondary will be larger than in 2014 however as Waynes basically locked down half the field when not playing Baylor.  But the pash rush could be even better than 2014's version as well. 

Editor's note - somehow I've disrespected Mark Dantonio, MSU football, Spartan nation, and the entire cast of 300 with this preview.  It shall forever be a chip on MSU's shoulder and go onto bulletin boards throughout East Lansing.   I don't apologize.

Image result for dantonio no respect

Matchups

(take these matchups with more of a grain of salt than usual because once you get past the month of September teams grow and evolve - well at least well coached teams.)

***Due to torches and pitchforks headed my way if I do the normal matchups and say Michigan might be at a disadvantage anywhere, I will let the viewers discuss the matchups in comments section.  So I leave you with this:

UM rush off v MSU rush def - Adv: Harbaugh. 

UM pass off v MSU pass def - Adv: Harbaugh.  

MSU rush off v UM rush def - Adv: Harbaugh. 

MSU pass off v UM pass def - Adv: Harbaugh.  

 

Overall

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Comments

SF Wolverine

August 10th, 2015 at 7:52 AM ^

Turnover margin and key injury-free seasons are not going to keep dropping from the heavens. They'll be good, but I expect a bit of a drop this year. 9-3 feels about right

csmhowitzer

August 10th, 2015 at 10:02 AM ^

I think their big question-marks will be Penn State, Michigan, and the injury bug. I never noticed how few they've actually had over the years. In such a competitive and physical sport, that's simply amazing. With that being said, I can see them at 9, 10, or 11 wins depending on the luck of the draw. As alum96 mentioned, you can play a bad team on a good day and vise-versa. I really liked the Tressel-ball comparison, spot on! If MSU can play their version of Tressel ball then they will be having a nother 10+ win season... barring any injuries to key players.

 

GO BLUE!

Glennsta

August 11th, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^

They've hurt us over the past few years. Maybe it's time for our luck to change that way.

That being said, it is hard to predict what 10/17 will look like until we get a look at what our offense can do. If we don't have much of a runing game and our line, receivers and backs continue to struggle with blitzes, we'll have a lot of trouble with MSU.

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

August 10th, 2015 at 10:05 AM ^

astounding. Especially when player after player is listed in the front 7. Sure the rumors of PEDs raise a question, but the maturity of the guys in the trenches vs 2nd or 3rd yr opponents creates a clear advantage.

Have to credit Dantonio with developing AND keeping guys through 5 years. UM finally has depth of 3rd and 4th yr guys on the lines to match up better.

chunkums

August 10th, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^

Unfortunately, I agree that the loss of Narduzzi means relatively little. Dantonio was the DC when Ohio State won their title in 2002 and that's why I think he's the evil genius behind their defense. I think this is once again an 11 win team with a loss to Ohio State in the regular season. 

Then again, HARBAUGH.

MGoClimb

August 10th, 2015 at 10:45 AM ^

Just like Michigan-Ohio State games under Hoke, I expect every Michigan-Michigan State game to be brutally competitive from now on, even if we are underdogs going in. We don't have the more proven or experienced team, but with Harbaugh Michigan will have a chance to win this game.

By mid-October Michigan should be hitting their stride. The Big House is going to be loud. This is going to be a war.

alum96

August 10th, 2015 at 11:41 AM ^

Just fyi I read that 21 fifth year senior thing in a preview maybe 2 months ago.  I just looked at their 2 deep to verify it has any bearing in reality and I found 18 on the 2 deep so they probably have a few fluttering through the program buried below that level so it seems if not perfectly accurate pretty damn close.  

Of the 18, 13-14 are serious contributors including 6 starters on defense alone (and could be 7 if the senior corner wins the job).  A big advantage and rare for a program with that type of success ex Wisconsin. 

And as someone said earlier it's going to be nice facing 22 year olds with 21 year olds rather than 19-20 year olds.  Not that it explains away everything but 2 years at that age is a big difference in developing "man strength".

Michigan4Life

August 11th, 2015 at 2:11 AM ^

against Jack Conklin whom for some reason wasn't highly recruited despite him kicking ass at HS. His dad, Darren, was a walk on at Michigan yet for some reason, Brady Hoke didn't look at him at all. Granted, he didnt' have a D1 scholarship and was close to going to prep school before Dantonio offered him a scholarship at the last minute.

Now, he's considered to be a potential top 15 pick by a couple whom I trusted who have seen MSU a ton. They raved his ability to dominate at POA and essentially made the RDE a dead zone where they can't get to the QB much less pressure him.

Yard Dog

August 11th, 2015 at 8:36 AM ^

SEC QB play?  It's not good.  B1G QBs are overall better.

Jack Conklin was one of the top 5 OL in the B1G last year. Expect he and Decker from OSU are the top two this year. He did a great job on Bosa and only gave up one sack to Oakman. Dude is a beast and athletic as hell. He put a hurtin' on an Oregon CB who made a pick in last year's game. Geiger had a hip injury all last year which affected his accuracy and distance immensely. Expect a return to his freshman form. Punter is a huge question mark as Hartbarger has a massive leg but is very inconsistent.

Nicholson is a beast at S. If he matures quickly, the secondary will automatically be better regardless of who is at corner. He's a faster, bigger version of Drummond.

If Sparty can get past Oregon at home, the real showdown is in Columbus on November 21st. I do expect the Maize and Blue to actually show up this year after two years of absolutely embarrassing performances in EL (I still cannot believe those were MEEECHIGAN teams), but Harbaugh will need some time to turn things around.

One thing about Sparty - they are consistent as hell. I'll give them 11-2.

alum96

August 11th, 2015 at 1:35 PM ^

Disagree on your SEC QB comment. I dont think they are near the Pac 12 where it seems a lot of QBs come out of but last year Gary Nova was the 3rd best Big 10 QB if you put all the OSU QBs as 1.  Hackenberg was as bad as Devin Gardner last year.

Going back 20 years or so there has not been a 1st round pick in the Big 10 since Kerry Collins - that will finally change this year.  Only Michigan was producing NFL calibar QBs for a long time except for a guy here or there like Brees and Stanton.  It's been garbage for a decade- this year is a complete anomaly.

Since the infamous Big Ten quarterback draft of 2004 - when OSU's Craig Krenzel, Wisconsin's Jim Sorgi, Michigan State's Jeff Smoker and Michigan's John Navarre dominated rounds five through seven of the draft - there have been 110 quarterbacks taken in the nine ensuing drafts. Just nine of them - or 8 percent -were from the Big Ten.

Hate Tebow all you want but great college QB.  Manziel.  Matt Stafford,  Was McCarron a system QB? maybe but his last year was better than all but prob 5-6 seasons in the past decade of anyone in the Big 10.  Cam Newton was pretty good last I checked.  Eli Manning - half decent.  Tim Couch was a bust in the NFL but a good QB at a crap program.  Same for Grossman.

The last 5-6 years of Big 10 Qbs has been horrible.  Last year you had guys like Tommy Armstrong Jr, Trevor Siemian, Mitch Leidner, CJ Brown as your "middle of the pack" Big 10 QBs.... garbage.

alum96

August 11th, 2015 at 1:38 PM ^

Hard to even claim Wilson as Big 10 for his 1 whole year here but this is the last decade of Big 10 QBs drafted in any round.  SEC far superior.

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/18-years-big-10-qb-has-been-drafted-1st-rou…

  • 2004 - Krenzel (5th) OSU, Sorgi (6th) Wisconsin, Smoker (6th) MSU, Navarre (7th) UM
  • 2005 - Orton (4th) Purdue
  • 2006 - shutout
  • 2007 - Stanton (2nd) MSU, Smith (5th) OSU
  • 2008 - Henne (2nd) UM
  • 2009 - Painter (6th) Purdue
  • 2010 - Kafka (4th) Northwestern
  • 2011 - Stanzi (5th) Iowa
  • 2012 - Wilson** (3rd) Wisconsin, Cousins (4th) MSU
  • 2013 - shutout
  • 2014 - shutout

A decent SEC guy like Aaron Murray was better than almost all these guys.

andrewgr

August 11th, 2015 at 7:07 PM ^

I realize that the purpose of this diary was to discuss this year, not MSU in general, but since you speculated about 2016, I'll throw this out there: no one is benefiting as much from Harbaugh's disinterest in recruiting Ohio as Dantonio is.  8/20 of their current verbal commitments are from Ohio, and they're probably going to flip 4* George Hill from OSU in the not too distant future.

If MSU only gets 3 kids per year that would have traditionally gone to UM, that's 12-15 kids on the roster at any one time.  That's enormously impactful.  And 3 recruits per year might be conservative.

I'll go out on a limb and say Sparty is here to stay if future UM classes geographically mimic the 2015 one.  Even if all but ignoring Ohio works out for UM, it's still going to have the side effect of greatly contributing to Dantonio's continued succes (IMHO of course). 

(To be clear, I'm not suggesting that this should in any way factor into UM's recruiting-- clearly they should be getting the best kids they can, regardless of where they come from.  I'm just pointing out a presumably unintended consequence.)

alum96

August 11th, 2015 at 10:19 PM ^

(a) MSU is not going anywhere until Dantonio retires.  It doesn't mean 11 win seasons all the time because that is difficult for any program but they will be a well above average team until he leaves.

(b) 2016 wont be a typical year of recruiting Ohio.  Most of the top guys went to ND and OSU.  OSU was coming off a NC.  UM has sucked for the better part of these kids lives.  MSU has back to back top 5 finishes with a staff that coached all over Ohio.   So UM was way behind the ball.  

I do expect UM to get their normal 3-4 kids from Ohio and MSU to also continue to get 3-4 kids from Ohio - the question is will they be going for the same kids.  Prior to 2 years ago MSU was battling Kentucky for those recruits in the 20s and 30s.  Now they are battling a bit higher up the food chain.  Where UM usually plucks guys.

alum96

August 12th, 2015 at 3:10 PM ^

It is probably higher in a Brady Hoke regime than a Jim Harbaugh regime.  To that end Harbaugh has more commits from SEC footprint in this class alone than Hoke had in 4 years combined.  So it is difficult to recruit Michigan hard, recruit OH hard, recruit Jersey hard, and recruit TX, FL, and CA hard unless you are going to recruit like Tennessee and cram 40 kids into a class. 

7 kids from OH would be 1/3rd of every class.   Assuming 6-8 are from MI that only leaves a third for the rest of the country.  And we seem to be going to try for 2-4 from Jersey alone every class now so you only have so many spots.  Esp if you are serious about pulling a good amount of kids from the south.

Maybe 3-4 is off a bit but the larger point is 2016 is an outlier and I expect us to get back to OH although probably not at quite the level of recent past as Harbaugh has a broader footprint he seems to be wanting.  As does Urban v Tressel.

alum96

August 11th, 2015 at 10:16 PM ^

Preseason he was top 15ish in the draft - he fell into the 2nd round in most mocks and apparently the NFL advisory board.

2 years ago he was the beneficiery of a great defense creating a ton of turnovers that he was johnny on the spot and picked up and ran back for TDs.   Last year those fortunate bounces didnt go into his hands so his "production" fell off a bit.  Also I think the OSU game and Oregon game exposed some deficiencies - Marcus Rush had a far better game vs Oregon for example. 

UMForLife

August 15th, 2015 at 7:47 AM ^

Thank you for doing this. Very good diaries. Can't wait for OSU.

I would really love to see your pov on who has the advantage. Brian does this every year. Here is mine...

UM Rush Off. Vs. MSU Rush Def. : MSU
UM Pass Off. Vs. MSU Pass Def. : Push

MSU Rush Off. Vs. UM Rush Def. : Push
MSU Pass Off. Vs. UM Pass Def. : UM

Basically, I love our secondary because of Peppers and Lewis. I think our rush def would be good, but MSU will get their yards. I do not expect a lot though. I expect our pass off to fair better against their secondary with a lot of quick throws.

alum96

August 15th, 2015 at 3:27 PM ^

I didnt do it for MSU because there is just too much butt hurt when you give MSU props for anything on this website.  I did do it for every other matchup.  

Generally speaking I'd give MSU most of the advantages except for run offense vs UM's rush defense.

I am more worried about the pass defense because we dont have any real pass threat from the outside that is established - all we have is potential and then counting on guys who were part timers and aside from Lewis we dont have an established guy in the secondary IMO who is a difference maker.  Wilson is servicable and Peppers is all potential at this point.  Lyons was crushed by Cook 2 years ago in the Rose Bowl - he is a decent veteran but nothing I am too excited about.   And if either Lewis or Lyons go down you go back to a lot of questions (my assumption is Delano Hill takes over for Peppers at S and Peppers goes outside at corner but I dont know).  Maybe Brandon Watson will be a player this year.  Just a lot of questions for UM in the pass defense IMO.  And MSU has stellar pass protect and a NFL prospect at QB.  And a TE as good as Butt.

While MSU has some new faces at corner until UM shows it has a legit passing game with legit receivers we have just as many questions starting with no idea who the QB is, no idea who the primary WR is (I guess Darboh but who knows) and no idea who a secondary WR crew would include - everyone is just guessing.  They just have to guess on 1 corner.....and even without Ed Davis they will have one of the best pass rushes in the league.

I do see with this preview that the matchups generate the most comments - never thought PSU would get 50 more comments than MSU but maybe it's quiet confidence of UM fans. ;)

UMForLife

August 16th, 2015 at 10:07 AM ^

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. I am surprised also that MSU did not create much chatter. It seems like Dantonio somehow gets good RB production. I am banking on Peppers and Lewis staying healthy, with the loss of play makers at WR corps, to contain their passing game. If we had a proven edge rusher, I would be even more confident.

I just read your diary again on Lyons. I see your concern. Let us hope he is better than Countess in the press coverage.

MSU does have a proven OL, a good QB and a couple of very good TEs. Beyond that, they are mostly unproven at skill positions, similar to us. MSU has a very balanced attack. I am banking on us taking away their run game and force Cook to take over. Let us see, if our secondary is as good as we think it is.

alum96

August 19th, 2015 at 1:22 PM ^

Their top 3 Wrs are much more proven then ours - Burbridge, Kings, Shelton.  Esp the first 2. 

I agree their rbs are not proven.  They are very high on LJ Scott so we'll see - our histoy with high ranked rbs has really sucked of late so it would be par for the course that theirs walks in and produces.