2015 Maryland Football Preview

Submitted by alum96 on

Disclaimer:  My previews of Big 10 teams are based on viewing of 2014 games of said teams plus extensive reading of local and national previews of that team.  I might be wrong in my assessment any one team or any specific unit of that team.  But that's clearly doubtful. (!!)  No, on a serious note I enjoy people who comment who live locally to these teams or is an opposing fan - helps us get a better perspective so if you are one feel free to add to the discussion. 

I also write this with the assumption Jake Rudock is the starting QB as the matrix of possibilities is too great trying to predict things with Shane Morris as a start.

TL;DR

Maryland football took advantage of the struggles of PSU and UM to finish 3rd in the Big 10 East in 2014 in their inaugral season in the conference.  Unless Mark Dantonio retires in the next 3 years or James Franklin is a complete buffoon that might be Maryland's highest finish for a very long time.   Just like I believe the average UM fan on this board is undervaluing PSU in 2015, I think they are overvaluing Maryland based on last year's 3rd place finish.  This was a really mediocre team last year that lost some key talent and could turn into a poor team in 2015.  Maryland only returns ~10 starters (6 on offense, 4 on defense) ... that would rank in the bottom tier across the P5.  The division will be tougher as they will be facing less dysfunctional teams in UM and PSU.   There is also a brutal 7 game stretch mid season that spans West Virginia, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State.   Going 2-5 in that span may be considered a victory with 1-6 more likely.   On top of all that Maryland lost its defensive coordinator but considering the meh defense last year, I don't know if that is a loss or gain. I see Maryland battling it out with Rutgers and Indiana to determine 5th, 6th, and 7th in the East.

Vegas agrees setting Maryland's over under on wins at a paltry 4.5.  FCS Richmond Spiders seem like the only sure win (I guess?) with a tricky middle of the pack MAC team in Bowling Green and a not so great USF as the next 2 best chances.   From there Maryland could face a very dark 2 months until they close out the year with back to back game with teams more of their ilk - Rutgers and Indiana.  5 wins seems like a reasonable target.

There is very little star power on this team but one standout is diminutive Will Likely who had two pick 6s last year along with numerous big plays on special teams.   He showed yes even at 5'7, 175 lbs you can succeed as a Big 10 CB.

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Last year

Maryland did exactly what they should have done last year - beat up patsies, got smoked by good teams, and went into heavy hand to hand skirmishes with teams of similar ilk - winning more of those than losing.   This led to a 7-6 season and 4-4 in the Big 10.  Any quality team obliterated this squad (MSU, OSU, Wisconsin, Stanford) with a few scorelines just embarrassing (52-7 @Wisconsin, 52-24 hosting OSU). 

Maryland played four top-30 teams (in terms of F/+) and lost by an average score of 47-17.

The other 2 losses were by 3 to Rutgers and 3 to a decent West Virginia squad.  So they were actually 6 points away from posting a potential 9 win season despite having a mediocre team.

In terms of unit performance Maryland was middle of the pack in every aspect.   Their defense ranked 68th via FEI, and 55th in S&P+; likewise the offense ranked 52nd via FEI and 64th in S&P+.  Again mediocre in every aspect but unlike some other teams in the Big 10 they didn't have a yawning black hole on one side of the ball offsetting a decent unit on the other side. 

Maryland allowed 30-plus points seven times.

Advanced stats (which compensate for SOS and do things like throw away stats from blowouts) were actually much more kind to Maryland than NCAA stats (which use total yards as a measure) where Maryland's total offense was ranked 109th (i.e. Purdue level) and total defense 95th (Rutgers level).  Given that it is sort of a shock this team won 7 games.

In a tough-to-pull-off feat, Maryland’s offense managed just 341.9 total ypg (No. 12 in the Big Ten and No. 109 in the FBS) but scored a respectable 28.5 ppg (No. 5 and No. 65). Some of that anomalous scoring came via big-play receiver Stefon Diggs, who reeled in 4 TDs of 20-plus yards.

It is very difficult to find much Maryland excelled at last year outside special teams.  Kickoff returns (#6 nationally) and punt returns (#13) were both excellent.   They were also 19th in blocked kicks and 4th in blocked punts.  Ironically while they were great on creating offense on special teams they were atrocious defending special teams with both kickoff return defense and punt return defense ranking >100. Outside of special teams, they ranked 18th in fumbles recovered and 9th in red zone offense so while the offense generally sucked, when it did get inside the 20 it was efficient.

On offense, Maryland was led at QB by mediocre C.J. Brown with his 53% completion rate, 2300 yards, and modest 6.5 yards per attempt.   He had 13 TD and 10 INT.  Their leading rusher was.... C.J. Brown with 539 yards (3.3 yds per carry).   Their leading running back was junior Brandon Ross who averaged a solid 4.8 yards on a meager 86 attempts.   But half his yards came against James Madison and Rutgers.  There was very little production (200 yds) in the other 10 games combined.   The main talent on offense was at WR with Stefon Diggs and Deon Long.  Both are in NFL camps now.

Maryland did have an excellent placekicker in junior Brad Craddock who made 18/19 with his only miss all year over 50 yards. 

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This year

Good luck Randy Edsall.  Caleb Rowe - if he can protect the ball better - could be a fun QB especially in a league starving for talent outside of a few programs.   But staying injury free has been difficult for him - he has had 2 ACL injuries.   If he falls again, Oklahoma State transfer Daxx Garman could get the call.  Garman is much like Rudock in that he is a 5th year senior who lost his job last year.  That said Rudock had much nicer stats in 2014.  The skill position talent on offense is a major challenge while the offensive line should be improved.

The defense has the 1 sterling unit on this team - defensive backs.  The front 7 sounds like an adventure. 

The placekicking should be in great hands feet, while punting duties might be going to a freshman.   Craddock - despite a great leg - didnt do well in kickoffs last year so that seems to be a major point of emphasis this offseason.

Defending the Terps special teams return game is a must as Likely is a beast in both facets. 

As always Bill Connelly's team previews are a must read.

 

Maryland Offense

Caleb Rowe - who played a bit last year - takes over for C.J. Brown at QB.  Rowe actually had some decent stats with 63.0% completion rate and a sterling 9.0 yards per attempt before going down with injury.  He did have 4 INT to go against 5 TDs so ball security seems to be his issue  - he is a gunslinger type.  The bulk of his play last year came vs Indiana and OSU.  Who Rowe will throw to is an open question - the NFL talent is gone.  Senior to be Marcus Leak was the 3rd WR last year (20 catches) but he left the program in May.  So now you are down to guys with less production that Darboh had last year as your #1 WR.  Senior Levern Jacobs - who was suspended for a year - seems to be the main hope.  Whomever he may be. 

Behind Rowe in the backfield someone new needs to emerge (Wes Brown?) or its another year of mediocre Brandon Ross running the ball.  Ross also has fumble issues (5 of them in 2014 in under 90 carries!) The TE does not seem very utilized in this offense.

On the bright side, the offensive line seems like one area the previews do like about Maryland's offense. Two 5th year seniors and a RS JR form a nice nucleus for the 2 tackles and 1 guard.   Newbies will need to fill in the other 2 spots but the 2 candidates for center are both seniors.   They do have a 5 star RS FR in Damian Prince but as we know well around these parts - stars are cool but do it on the field, especially on the OL.

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Maryland Defense

Brian Stewart and his 3-4 defense is gone.  So is almost the entire front 7 from 2014 including Andre Monroe and his 10 sacks and 14 tackles for loss.  Inside linebackers coach Keith Dudzinski was promoted to DC and will try to ride a potentiall sterling secondary to success.   Will Likely (9 pass breakups, 6 INTs) mans one corner and converted safety Sean Davis is the other corner.   He paced the team with 115 tackles in 2014.  These 2 will probably be left on islands so shortcomings elsewhere can be addressed.  The veteran safeties (incl 1 back from suspension) should also be good.

As for the front 7, junior Yannick Ngaouke, who had 13.5 tackles for a loss and 6 sacks is the one returning playmaker.  He moves from linebacker to a position we'd call "Buck" in UM's system.  And after that....welp.

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Matchups

(take these matchups with more of a grain of salt than usual because once you get past the month of September teams grow and evolve - well at least well coached teams.)

UM rush off v MD rush def - Adv: UM.  Even with all the questions UM has in the run game, Maryland has even more in their rush defense.  They lost almost their entire front 7 and their rush defense was not good last year even with those players.

UM pass off v MD pass def - Adv: Even.   If Maryland had any veteran presence in the pash rush I'd give this to them due to their secondary but even a great group of defensive backs will get exploited if the QB is not rushed.  Last year Maryland was solid at getting to the QB with 32 sacks.  Most of those guys are gone.  So the question will be can MD get anything out of their DL in terms of pass rush outside of Ngaouke by early October.  Meanwhile you know the questions for UM by now - who can get open out of our WR corps vs good corners and safeties?

MD rush off v UM rush def - Adv: UM.  Rowe is not a dual threat in the mold of C.J. Brown so UM will need to focus mostly on an uninspiring group of Maryland running backs. 

MD pass off v UM pass def - Adv: Even.   If Rowe is healthy he actually looks like a competent Big 10 QB.  Again that is a low bar but his stats are compelling even if the sample size is relatively small.  Will he make it to week 5 in 1 piece?  Maryland is not playing a lot of big shots early so you'd think so.  The questions for Maryland - much like UM -  are more about finding wide receivers.   UM defensive backs likewise should still be in good condition this early in the year and the depth at corner (which could be an issue) should not challenged yet.  These are 2 mysterious units.  If Rowe is not healthy by the time this game rolls around, the advantage swings heavily to UM.

Special note - UM MUST DO A GOOD JOB DEFENDING WILL LIKELY ON PUNT AND KICKOFF RETURNS.  KICK THE BALL OUT OF BOUNDS ON PUNTS COACH BAXTER.

 

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Overall

UM did not fare well under Brady Hoke on the road - especially against teams >.500.  While Maryland might be .500 or better at the end of September due to the non conf foes I don't expect that to last long.   This game is in early October when UM should begin finding its feet as a team and there is just way too much talent on this team to lose this game unless its one of those 3 turnover days or Will Likely returns 2 kicks for touchdowns.  

This seems to me like a game that casual UM fan will worry about too much  - as opposed to a team like BYU that casual UM fan should worry about a lot more.   Maryland will be coming off a road game against what should be a decent West Virginia squad the prior week and I expect them to get exploited there.   Michigan will be coming off what I expect to be a wild high scoring affair v BYU.  Maryland looks like the perfect balm after 2 tough games vs teams from Utah in the month of September.   Their DL is a bunch of newbies and converted LBs and this is the point of the year Drevno's influence should have the OL able to push around this kind of DL.   Michigan's run game should have success.  Maryland's run game is suspect while UM's run defense should be quite good.   Rowe is an X factor of course and you just hope he does not have a Gary Nova 2014 type game but Nova had a special WR in Carroo - Maryland's special WRs are in the NFL.

This will be a night game (8 PM) so those cute Terps football fans will be pumped up but a methodical Michigan team should impose their will over time.  It's been a long time since we've said that so hopefully I won't have egg on face assuming it can be done.

Again... don't kick to Will Likely.   Also don't throw on him. Thank you.

Comments

Everyone Murders

August 5th, 2015 at 4:25 PM ^

It seems that with Maryland's struggles running the ball and Michigan's strength against the run, we ought to see Michigan's secondary get tested.  I'm OK with that here - a game like that could be a real confidence-builder for Michigan.

I can see Peppers in particular really coming into his own in this game.

As always, great preview.

NittanyFan

August 5th, 2015 at 8:25 PM ^

Now there's a man who earned a spot on the "Kellen Moore and Jess Settles all-star teams."  I swear he was a Terrapin for about 15 years .......

alum96

August 6th, 2015 at 10:54 AM ^

I have not done Utah yet but should be difficult yes.  Just completely different challenge than BYU.  If we can stifle Utah running back (easier said than done but we did it last year) I like our chances for an upset even if its game 1.  I don't see us stuffing Hill from BYU and am frankly terrified of what he can do to our defense.  I will be watching the BYU Neb game very closely to see how he does and if he is at all conservative in his running to protect his leg.  He strikes me as a guy who won't be.

Thus far I have Oregon State and Maryland as teams casual UM fan will overestimate and PSU BYU as teams casual UM fan will underestimate.   Utah has a 2 game winning streak against us so I hope by now UM fan doesnt underestimate them.

I also think Minnesota is being overrated a bit but they will be well coached and its on the road.  But they lost a ton of offensive production.  Of the 4 "swing" games on the schedule (Utah, Minn, BYU, PSU) I have Minn as the "easiest" I think.

EGD

August 6th, 2015 at 12:33 AM ^

Diggs is in the NFL already? That was quick. Feels like just a couple years ago that he was dicking around our coaches on the recruiting trail.

SpikeFan2016

August 6th, 2015 at 10:14 AM ^

Completely agree! Excellent analysis! This is the road game I am least worried about!

However, I am going to the game so maybe I'm just being optimistic for my own sake haha