2015 Football - Returning Starters by Team

Submitted by alum96 on

Now that "2014" is officially over, it is time to speculate about 2015.  Of course we already began that weeks ago.

Phil Steele has a list of all teams and how many starters they return in 2015.  It is not perfect; again let me say it is not perfect so comments saying it is not perfect are not useful.  But it's directionally useful.  Also some teams could face more departures in the next few weeks either via attrition, transfer, or early entry. 

Thought it would be fun to make reckless projections partly based on who has what returning.  Experience matters - well in most cases; not with Urban Meyer teams.  I've split this list into 3 groups:

  1. All Power 5 conference teams with 15+ starters returning ~2/3rds of the starters
  2. All Power 5 conference teams with 11 or less starters returning - 50% or less of the starters
  3. Teams in between 12-14 who are of interest

I bolded any specific unit with 8+ starters returning as it should be a pretty good unit (in theory anyhow)  I've removed some guys like FSU and Oregon's QBs

EXPERIENCED TEAMS

Team Conf Total Off Def Return QB?
Notre Dame ACC* 19 9 10 Y?*
Tenn SEC 18 10 8 Y
Vandy SEC 18 9 9 Y
UCLA P12 18 10 8 N
Cal P12 18 9 9 Y
Ole Miss SEC 17 9 8 N
North Carolina ACC 17 10 7 Y
Baylor B12 17 8 9 N
LSU SEC 16 8 8 Y
Michigan B10 16 9 7 N
Purdue B10 16 9 7 Y
Colo P12 16 7 9 Y
ASU P12 16 7 9 N
Va Tech ACC 16 8 8 Y
Wake Forest ACC 16 9 7 Y
Texas Tech B12 16 8 8 Y
Arkansas SEC 15 8 7 Y
USC P12 15 9 6 Y
WSU P12 15 7 8 N
Pitt ACC 15 9 6 Y
TCU B12 15 9 6 Y

 

Conjecture based on flimsy evidence

  • Notre Dame should be quite solid next year if Malik Zaire pans out.
  • It's time for Butch Jones to make a move and bring Tenn back to prominence.  They have been lost since we have been (2008). Year 3 (and 4) is when well above average coaches make big impacts for their teams; 2015 will be his year 3 and he brings back almost all his starters.  The SEC East is muddled with no power.
  • UCLA needs to replace Hundley - but other than that they should be loaded.  Rosen looks like he will be competing with Neuhesial's kid.   I thought the Pac 12 South was the 2nd best division in the country last year, and next year the top of it will be even better.
  • Cal can be a dark horse in the Pac 12 North; not to win it but to give the 2 top programs trouble and contend for 3rd place.  Sonny Dykes had an awful year 1 at Cal but things could be turning there as year 2 showed progress and they have a pretty fantastic offense with a stud QB.  There is some serious QBing going on in the Pac 12 right now, lost on most of the nation's audience who doesn't see many Pac 12 games.  Cal scores tons of points this year; problem is they gave up tons of points.
  • Perhaps the last hurrah near term for Ole Miss as mock drafts for 2016 show a plethora of their players going early.  They will have multiple early entries from the "bag man" class of 2013 (Laquon Treadwell, Robert Nkemdiche, etc)  Bo Wallace goes, in comes a Clemson transfer who spent a year tearing it up at JUCO level.
  • Baylor was young this year - the major loss is Bryce Petty but Seth Russell looked real good when Petty was down with injury this year.  Could be top 5 again.
  • LSU should be the Fournette show.  Need to develop their QB (an annual refrain).  Defense should be loaded but loss of Chavis might be huge.
  • Michigan's offense with Kevin Hogan would really look promising.  Defense will probably be flat as 2 top players leave in Ryan and Clark.
  • Purdue is my "Cal" of the Big 10.  Not going to win the Big 10 West but for some reason I like the way they played this year in limited views (vs Notre Dame, MSU).  They played hard, seemed to buy into Hazell, and their offense can be fun.  I also like their young QB Appleby.   Can they pass Iowa / Northwestern types to contend for 3rd place next year in that division?  Maybe.
  • Arizona State, like Ohio State, was supposed to be a 2015 story.  Until a late season dive they were in playoff contention.  Big believer in their coach (I know, I know - a mercenary) and OC.  Lose QB but they sometimes played better when his backup was in.  And a very young defense improved significantly as the year went by.  The games between USC, UCLA, and ASU should be barn burners and I think one of those 3 wins the entire Pac 12.
  • Arkansas is my sleeper of the year.  I said in many posts in October this year they could win the Big 10 West and probably would be the 3rd best team in the Big 10 even when they were winless in conf.  They surged in November and looked awesome in their bowl.  Defense was awesome, run game was awesome, played Bama to 1 pt and Miss State to a last second drive.  If they get any QB play next year I could see them top 10.  No, seriously.  Loss of OC a question though.
  • When researching USC's OL/offense I was struck at how great a year Cody Kessler had.  Fergodsakes, the Pac 12 is loaded with QBs.  70% completion, nearly 4k yards, 39 TD 5 INT - and you barely hear a peep about him out here in the East.  This is a very talented but young team lacking depth.  Loss of RB hurts as well as stud on DL.  If defense can do anything in 2015 they should contend for Pac 12.
  • TCU will be top 5 entering the year, and perhaps top 3 in polls with Heisman candidate Boykins ready to roar.  Defense loses a bit but Patterson is a defensive coach and like Dantonio will have a D ready to go.  Their D looks worse statistically then they are as the offense transformed to the type that scores every 2 minutes so D is on the field way more than a Big 10 D, and opponents have way more drives.  The TCU v Baylor tilt should be for all the marbles again.

 

YOUNG TEAMS

Team Conf Total Off Def Return QB?
Miss State SEC 7 4 3 Y
Kansas B12 8 4 4 Y
Maryland B10 10 4 6 N
Miami ACC 10 5 5 Y
Boston College ACC 10 3 7 N
Georgia SEC 11 6 5 N
Rutgers B10 11 7 4 N
Oregon St P12 11 9 2 N
Washington P12 11 6 5 N
Syracuse ACC 11 8 3 Y
Louisville ACC 11 5 6 Y
Clemson ACC 11 7 4 Y
KSU B12 11 5 6 N

 

Conjecture based on flimsy evidence

  • Good luck with that Dan Mullen.  Miss State returns Prescott and uhh... a handful of other starters.  That is not a division to lose 2/3rds of your starters in.  I could see Miss State coming in last in the division.  Dan you should have begged Nebraska for the job when they did not get Bret.
  • Maryland and Rutgers did decently their 1st year in the conference, partly because UM and PSU were junk.  When facing quality teams like OSU, MSU and Wisconsin they got punked.  And that was with quite experienced teams.  2015 looks like it is going to be rougher for these 2 programs.
  • Miami (YTM) looks like it's going to be in year 82 of a rebuild.  Al Golden seems to be getting a pass due to sanctions on the prorgram but I imagine a 7-5 type of season, if that happens, has to raise the temperature of the seat.
  • Georgia has a seemingly endless supply of RBs; maybe Nick Chubb and his supporting cast is enough in the down SEC East but it's a young squad without a returning QB.
  • Oregon St - Andersen has his work cut out for him in year 1 with that defense and only 2! returning starters in a conference chock full of high octane offenses.  He and his newly swiped DC are both defensive oriented and will need to be. 
  • Clemson will be interesting - they lost what many consider the real brains behind that team in Chad Morris (OC) and bring back a young team.
  • I don't know what witchcraft Bill Snyder at KSU will employ but somehow he will have a solid team.  Seeing how prevalent JUCO players are in the Big 12, maybe a quarter of next year's team will be those type.

 

IN THE MIDDLE TEAMS

(WARNING: NSFW IMAGE!!!! TURN AWAY OR PERISH!!)

 
Team Conf Total Off Def Return QB?
FSU ACC 14 4 10 N
PSU B10 14 8 6 Y
MSU B10 14 6 8 Y
OSU B10 14 7 7 N/A
Stanford P12 14 10 4 Y?*
BYU N/A 14 8 6 Y
Texas A&M SEC 13 7 6 N
Florida SEC 13 7 6 Y
South Carolina SEC 13 5 8 N
Missouri SEC 13 7 6 Y
Utah P12 13 7 6 Y
Oklahoma B12 13 7 6 Y
Auburn SEC 12 4 8 N
Alabama SEC 12 4 8 N
Wisconsin B10 12 5 7 Y
Nebraska B10 12 6 6 Y
Oregon P12 12 7 5 N
Arizona P12 12 7 5 Y
Texas B12 12 7 5 Y

 

Conjecture based on flimsy evidence

  • FSU brings back a loaded defense, but one that was strifed repeatedly by Oregon.  Not a tough conference however and talent alone should have it at (or near) the top.
  • PSU's 2015 offense will probably be a lot like UM's 2014 except with a NFL 1st rounder at the helm.  Assuming not PTSD for Hack it should be a viable offense again with a less than awful OL.  Doesn't mean good OL, just less than awful.  Hack looked spectacular in the bowl game.  PSU's DC is not well known in these parts but did a wonderful job at Vandy and his first year at PSU so despite some big talent leaving, the D will be in good hands.
  • MSU retained both Cook and Calhoun.  Their OL has been the unsung story of the past 2 years and it should remain excellent with potential 1st rounder Conklin at tackle, and an All American candidate at center.  Need to find a RB but bring in national recruit Larry Scott out of OH and young RBs can play righ away.  Defense the only weak spot will be the secondary with Calhoun's return.  Narduzzi loss might hurt but I doubt meaningfully.
  • OSU will be preseason #1, maybe if Braxton Miller transfers, Cardale declares, and JT Barrett is injured we can watch the Jaylon Marshall QB era begin.  (he is a WR for those playing at home)  I think Steele is a bit off on returning starters - I had 1 or 2 more off memory when I did a depth chart analysis.
  • Stanford returns 10 starters on offense but that offense really does not play to your strengths Kevin Hogan.  Come to Michigan.  Anderson will have a rebuild job with that defense which has been a Stanford stalwart since Vic Fangio showed up in 2010.  Another reason why I think the Pac 12 champion might come out of the South next year.
  • BYU is here because we play them - they bring an experienced offense with a dual threat QB (that Harbaugh recruited to Stanford!).  Going to be a stern test.
  • With Kenny Hill leaving Texas A&M some questions arise but Sumlin is good at 1 thing - offense.  Defense he sucks at - but Chavis arrival should help immediately. 
  • Whole new staff at Florida with Michigan's old OC and Miss State's old DC.  Offense was 1 dimensional in 2014 costing Muschamp his job.  Need something out of their QB.
  • One wonder if the ole ball coach is finally nearing the end of the line.  South Carolina finally struggled in 2014 after some very nice years and offense was the main thing it had going for them.  A lot of personnel losses on that side of the ball.
  • No idea what poor Kyle Whittingham is going to be doing at Utah.  No OC, no DC, and a jerky AD.   But I assume he will find a way to field a quality team in time for our arrival.
  • Nick Marshall leaves Auburn but Jeremy Johnson in a limited roll looked pretty damn sweet (yes I am jealous how certain other teams can just roll in any QB and do well).  Young offense but loaded with highly rated players, and Muschamp arrives to improve the defense.  Auburn will be a very interesting team next year.
  • Bama gonna Bama.  A slew of 5 stars leaves, a slew of 5 stars arrive.  Non performing 5 stars are "guided" to pastures at the local JUCOs.
  • Wisconsin gonna Wisconsin - even more so with Chryst there.  Their D was exposed by OSU but in retrospect that offense exposed everyone late in the year - other than PSU.  The Big 10 West looks quite garbage-y right now, so Wisconsin remains the top dog there until proven otherwise.  Still like their young DC a lot.
  • Who knows what to expect with Nebraska - lost much of their higher end talent.  QB simply must improve; Armstrong can't afford to arm punt.  Mike Riley has his year cut out for him and I would not be surprised to see a significant step back in year 1, especially if Armstrong doesn't jump in progress.
  • Oregon could take a step back - if Braxton Miller arrives it might just be a small step.  An adequate but not great defense loses a lot of players.
  • Arizona was young offensively this year and 1 more year for their QB should help.  They return Scooooby on D but not a lot of other players.  Casteel has work to do; their division is loaded with big time offenses.
  • Texas simply needs to focus on fixing that offense.  Strong spent year 1 smoking out a lot of bad - too comfortable - apples.  Year 2 has to begin the rebuild.  I expect the defense to arrive but not sure on that offense. 
  • Oklahoma has to respond to the new challenges of TCU and Baylor.  Another average year and Stoops seat might go to at least lukewarm.  That's modern college football man.

Comments

EGD

January 13th, 2015 at 10:34 AM ^

I wonder which seven players Steele is counting as the returning starters on M's defense (or, alternatively, which four are the departing starters) considering that Morgan comes off a medical redshirt, Peppers comes off a de facto medical redshirt, Lewis took over a starting position on merit (as opposed to injury or some other circumstance), Pipkins is a former starter who was less than a year removed from ACL rehab in 2014, and I still have no idea who M's starting safety alongside Wilson was last season.

alum96

January 13th, 2015 at 11:00 AM ^

Pretty easy - 4 departures:  Clark, Ryan, Beyer, Taylor.

Hill, Wilson, Lewis, Bolden, Glasgow, Henry and [Countess OR Ross III - based on formation] return.

Hill won the starting job out of camp but immediately was injured and Hill when he returned late in the year they pushed back out to start.   Of course any of these players can get beat out for starting roles next year but as of 2014 those were the "starters".

alum96

January 13th, 2015 at 1:09 PM ^

If a guy starts 10 games for you and suffers a severe ankle sprain that knocks him out of the last 2 games, then graduates - he would still have been considered your starter for the year.  That is Clark just with different circumstances.

And Taylor was a starter across from Lewis once he got back from injury.  Your other choices were Countess who was mostly a nickel guy, Hollowell, or Stribling.  It was Taylor.

EGD

January 13th, 2015 at 1:40 PM ^

Fair enough.  I guess I was just thinking, let's say this is our starting D next season:

CB: Lewis, Peppers

S: Wilson, Hill

DE: Ojemudia, Charlton

DT: Henry, Glasgow

LB: Bolden, Morgan, Ross

To me, that looks like 9 returning starters (everyone but the DEs).  

UMaD

January 13th, 2015 at 5:53 PM ^

Next year Peppers will probably be a red-shirt freshman.  Def NOT a returning starter.

Both DE are new, as you mentioned.

8 seems like a fair compromise but technically Morgan was not the starter last year so...7 is more right than 9

EGD

January 14th, 2015 at 8:37 PM ^

Peppers won the starting job out of fall camp and only didn't play because he got hurt. So I don't see why it's "absurd" to consider him a returning starter. But if you don't like Peppers, how about Countess? He started a bunch of games in 2014 and will be back next season, so how is he not a returning starter? Taylor, who evidently counts as a departing starter, missed half of 2014 with his own injury.

alum96

January 13th, 2015 at 1:04 PM ^

To be consistent I probably should have put Indiana in but I just don't see them as much of a threat so didn't bother.  I am still learning about Maryland and Rutgers as we go along whereas I know what Indiana is.

Minnesota probably should have went in there too as a "top 6" Big 10 team, but was not at an extreme (15+ or 11 or less).  Same with the Iowas or Northwesterns.  Michigan just has much more talent than all those teams and if well coached should beat them 7-8 out of 10 years.

BlueKoj

January 13th, 2015 at 6:33 PM ^

Yeah, I was curious simply because they're on the schedule. At this point, I think anyone is a "threat" even though UM has more talent. MN especially is a tough team. Wilson has IN capable of putting together games, but not seasons NW just because they were on the schedule. IA just because they were part of my cut and paste.

Chitown Kev

January 13th, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^

with all of the returning starters...if most of them pan out and perform up to capability, UM could be in for a pretty special season if a QB pans out..

 

Also...I think that the power in the SEC will begin to switch back to the East; Tennessee will probably win it but Missouri and Georgia are also capable, i think that Florida might be a super dangerous team.

 

The Pac 12 is loaded...UCLA will probably be favored but USC, Stanford, Arizona, and ASU all look dangerous and none of them will want to play Cal or Oregon.

VintageBlue

January 13th, 2015 at 1:17 PM ^

Decent to good QB play, pass rush threat, add a dash of Harbaugh, season with Peppers and you have yourself a B1G contender next year. We need to get used to expecting nice things again.

BlueinOK

January 13th, 2015 at 2:28 PM ^

If a pass rusher can emerge in the fall, the Michigan defense should be great again...Probably better with a healthy Peppers and Lewis as shutdown corners. 

Steves_Wolverines

January 13th, 2015 at 3:10 PM ^

Great stuff. Only thing is I don't think Arkansas is good enough to win the Big-10 West. 

"Arkansas is my sleeper of the year.  I said in many posts in October this year they could win the Big 10 West and probably would be the 3rd best team in the Big 10 even when they were winless in conf."

alum96

January 13th, 2015 at 6:40 PM ^

I watched 4 of their games and I thought they were better than LSU.  Their D was stifling.  Who in the Big 10 west was going to beat them?  Wisconsin lost to LSU and lost to NW.   They didnt belong on the same field as OSU - meanwhile Arkansas lost 17-16 to Bama and were an incomplete pass away from tying Miss State in the closing seconds.  Wiscy did beat Auburn but Auburn was all over the map this year.  Minnesota was probably the 2nd best team in the West.

Basically Bret has Wisconsin of the south built down there already but with better athletes on D.  Like Wicy they lack much at QB. 

Eye of the Tiger

January 13th, 2015 at 3:40 PM ^

I think there is going to be significant drop-off there. They are losing their three most reliable skill players on offense--don't forget Lippett and Mumphery, and that defense was already looking shakier than it did the two seasons prior, and now the play-caller and co-architect is gone. They'll still be good--I sincerely doubt they'll have another 5-6 loss season, a la 2012, but a tough out that ends the season with 3-4 losses seems like a good bet.

alum96

January 13th, 2015 at 6:27 PM ^

They are going to have the 2nd best OL in the conference and it would be the best IMO if not for OSU's ridiculous ascent in 1 year with a bunch of young guys.  They have a 1st round tackle in Conklin who stoned Bosa and Gregory, and an All American candidate at center.  They started a freshman guard at times this year (younger brother of the All American type at center) and he will be better next year.  Their OL is the least appreciated part of their past 2 years - Cook barely gets touched most games.

Cook is a 3rd year starter - can't put a price on that.  Lippett and Langford will be losses but every team has some losses.

Calhoun coming back was huge for them because if he did not they would be starting two new DEs.  Their DTs will be pushing for best in the conf with Thomas finally fulfilling his 5 star status in latter 2014, McDowell playing huge minutes as a true freshmen who will get better after a year of S&C, and I believe the 2 backups are both seniors.  LBs only lose 1 player.  Main issue is secondary.

They are not going anywhere - I think 2016 is the year they step back.  Cook goes, their 2 star OL guys go, a bunch of their DL goes and their 2 outside LBs go.

Rasmus

January 14th, 2015 at 3:13 PM ^

You're making some leaps about the OL. Four out of the five starters from two years ago are gone.

They lost three senior starters off the OL last year. They lose 5th-year starting guard Jackson this year. Also Kruse, another unquestioned starter when not injured, is gone this year.

NFL tackles are great to have, but ask 2012 Michigan about their role in the overall success of the OL.

Not to downplay the potential of the Allen brothers. But they are both natural centers. One of them will have to play guard. They will be helped by the presence of Clark, but he is a converted tackle.

So I don't think we can jump to too many conclusions about how well an OL without a true guard will do. And they won't have the kind of depth they've had the past two years, regardless of how good the starters are.

UMaD

January 13th, 2015 at 5:57 PM ^

Not sure what the stakes should be, but I'd like to make you a wager that Mullen isn't going to finish last in that conference.

He's a good coach and runs a youth-friendly system.  It took a while to get HIS GUYS in there, but now that he has his system rolling I think he's going to be just fine. Urban Meyer didn't need veterans to win a national title and while Mullen isn't nearly as good, he IS good enough to stay out of the cellar.  MSU won't match this year, but will still be a top 25-35 team is my guess.

alum96

January 13th, 2015 at 6:37 PM ^

We can take a mental note of it.

Who would you have ahead of Miss State or better put where would you place Miss State.  I think we may have a year here where Texas A&M, LSU , and Miss State are the bottom 3?

I think it will be something like

Bama, Auburn, Arkansas, Ole Miss as the top 4.  The other 3 teams above vying for 5th thru 7th.  Depends on who A&M can find for a QB and how quickly Chavis can fix that D.  And for LSU, same question on developing a QB, and opposite question on Chavis.  While I expect Chavis loss to hurt LSU long term they return 8 guys from his D so I think they will be ok in 2015.  Miss State meanwhile lost 2/3rds of its starters.

White-Pants

January 14th, 2015 at 9:38 PM ^

It will be interesting to see how many UM starters that return are replaced.  I am thinking possibly on the OL & CB.  The new workuts this off season may create some movement and coaching evaluations.