2015 Coaching Changes - Mid-Season Report

Submitted by MaizeJacket on

In light of the five FBS coaching changes that have already occurred, I thought I would take this opportunity to go over the attractiveness of each job, a primary candidate for each job, and two secondary candidates for each job.  (Disclaimer: The candidates are merely my opinion, not anything official whatsoever, and I limited the coaching candidates to the college ranks). I also took the liberty of predicting which other FBS jobs could be open by the end of 2015.  In order to compile this diary, I took some information from coachingsearch.com.  Chris Vannini there does an excellent job of posting coaching updates from across all levels of football.  If you Twitter, follow @coachingsearch.

 

Legend for attractiveness of each job:

Hot - One of the top 10-12 jobs in college football, a destination job, high pressure to win

Solid - Still a place you can win at, viewed as destination by at least some, still moderate/high pressure to win

Decent - Middle of the road, not bad, but nothing to get excited about.  Could move on if Solid or Hot job opens up.

Fair - Uphill battle.  High/mid Group of 5/low Power 5 type job.  Ambitious coaches will usually leave this type of job if they can.

Airport - Won't be here for long either way.  Win somewhat and you're off in 2-3 seasons, lose big and you're off in 2-3 seasons.

 

Open Jobs:

Illinois: Attraction - Decent Job.  Illinois on the face has the look of a Solid job, but the fact is there is merely a light recruiting base in the state and the surrounding area; there is not enough competitive talent in the state.  The head man will have to raid states like Ohio to round out the roster.  There is also little tradition at Illinois.  Guys have shown that you can achieve BCS/New Year's 6 success at Illinois as recently as the early 00s and that one run under Zook, so there is hope.  For what it's worth it is the first choice in the state, and it's in the unspectacular B1G West.

Primary Candidate: Dino Babers, Bowling Green Head Coach.  Babers has history coaching in the state, and took over a bad Eastern Illinois team and turned them into FCS Playoff participants just two seasons later.  His offense is modeled after Baylor's Art Briles and has torched many FBS defenses already.  This is a hire that would inject some excitment in a primarily stale and tired fan base in addition to just being a smart hire overall. Babers would be 55 at the start of the 2016 season.

Secondary candidate 1: Justin Fuente, Memphis Head Coach

Secondary candidate 2: Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky Head Coach

Maryland: Attraction - Decent Job.  Maryland is a similar type job to Illinois, with a slightly better recruiting base in the DC metro area.  An ambitious/smart head coach would dive into the Norfolk/VA Beach area, as well.  Maryland has also made a BCS/NY6 appearance fairly recently, so there is also hope here; however, the athletic department at Maryland is cash-strapped after numerous mishaps, hence their betrayal of forever home ACC for the moneybags of the Big Ten.  Little tradition at Maryland.  The new guy will also be competing with Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State on a yearly, and Michigan State will be a force as long as Dantonio is there.

Primary Candidate: Justin Fuente, Memphis Head Coach.  Fuente took over a dumpster fire at Memphis and has turned it into an SEC-whippin' machine.  He would have to do the same at Maryland, but there's potential to do at Maryland what he's done at Memphis.  Fuente will be only 40 at the start of the 2016 season.

Secondary candidate 1: Dino Babers, Bowling Green Head Coach

Secondary candidate 2: Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky Head Coach

South Carolina: Attraction - Fair Job.  This is an uphill battle.  Let's go over some national-championship winning coaches that have, for the most part, failed at South Carolina.  Paul Dietzel (LSU), Lou Holtz (Notre Dame), and Steve Spurrier (Florida).  Spurrier won the SEC East a grand total of once at South Carolina.  Holtz never did.  The state of South Carolina does not really have enough competitive talent for two FBS programs, let alone one, and over the past 15-20 years most of the best talent that is in the state is going to Clemson.  Clemson has more of a winning history and tradition, albeit a shorter history.  The Gamecocks are the second on the block in a weak recruiting state, make no mistake.

Primary Candidate: Tom Herman, Houston Head Coach.  Herman would be a great hire for South Carolina.  The only question would be is if he would be willing to take on another challenge at South Carolina or really look to build up the Houston program (maybe toward even a Big XII invite?).  Regardless, in my opinion this is the guy South Carolina should target.  Ohio State clearly misses Herman on the offensive side of the ball and Herman has developed a reputation for being a ravenous recruiter and is doing that at Houston. The South Carolina job requires a sleepless recruiting effort.  Make it happen, Cocky.  Herman would only be 41 at the start of the 2016 season.

Secondary candidate 1: Justin Fuente, Memphis Head Coach

Secondary candidate 2: Joe Moglia, Coastal Carolina Head Coach

Southern Cal: Attraction - Hot Job.  Location, winning tradition, self-sustaining, private institution, can recruit via bus or bicycle in the southern California region.  Don't feel I need to add much else.

Primary Candidate: Jimbo Fisher, Florida State Head Coach.  Predicting the next head coach for a program like Southern Cal is pretty fun.  You can make a case for almost any semi-successful head coach in the country, as a program like Southern Cal can get anyone they want. Jimbo Fisher has already done all he can do at Florida State, and with perhaps the most lackadaisical undefeated regular season in history in 2014 followed up by a face plant against Oregon in the semi-final and a similar start in 2015, Fisher may be ready for a new challenge.  Fisher has the rock star appeal that would fit in well at Southern Cal and, for better or worse, Fisher's FSU has been in the news almost constantly since he's been there.  The man can recruit, motivate, and win on game day, which is what Southern Cal needs most right now. In addition, and this would be just as much a change for personal reasons, Fisher just this summer went through a divorce, after his wife allegedly had an affair with one of his ex-players.  So Southern Cal would theoretically allow him to get away and get a new start. Fisher would be 50 at the start of the 2016 season.

Secondary candidate 1: Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M Head Coach

Secondary candidate 2: James Franklin, Penn State Head Coach

North Texas: Attraction - Airport.  This change went under the radar, and rightfully so.  North Texas canned former Iowa State head coach Dan McCarney after UNT lost 66-7 to homecoming opponent Portland State.  Most will remember Mean Joe Greene as a famous alumnus of North Texas.  North Texas has gone through many problems in its history, notably being "demoted" to 1-AA in the late 70s by the NCAA.  However, through major donor support, the program re-entered 1-A in 1995 (wikipedia).  For what it's worth, UNT is in the state of Texas (obviously) and the institution just opened up a brand new on-campus Apogee Stadium, and has seemingly shown willingness to invest in the program and facilities.  However, the next head man here will likely have to come from the FCS ranks and view it as a step up. AD Rick Villarreal stated that he would like the next hire to be "offensive minded" (coachingsearch.com).

Primary Candidate: Matt Viator, McNeese State Head Coach (74-32 in 9+ seasons, 4 FCS Playoff berths, age 52) (wikipedia)

Secondary candidate 1: KC Keeler, Sam Houston State Head Coach (189-81-1 overall record, 3 FCS Championships with Delaware, 5 Division III Championships with Rowan, age 56) (wikipedia)

Secondary candidate 2: Greg Schiano, available (still only 49, but at this point has to take what he can get)

 

*Likely* Open Jobs:

Virginia

Central Florida (O'Leary iffy on pretty much everything right now)

Tulane

Iowa State

Purdue

Texas-San Antonio (although coachingsearch.com says no)

Hawaii

I'll wait until after the 2015 season is over to see how these shake out.  I may do a second follow-up post after the season with more commentary on the open jobs.

 

Comments

timjrab

October 26th, 2015 at 1:31 AM ^

USC - Sean Payton or John Harbaugh (NFL guy or bust, and they won't get Jeff Fisher)

South Carolina - Dana Holgersen

Virginia Tech - Bud Foster (RichRod would be a better choice)

Maryland - Bret Bielema (but they'll settle for Schiano because Maryland)

Miami - Rich Rodriguez

Arkansas - Justin Fuente

 

mjv

October 26th, 2015 at 10:57 AM ^

The thought of RR at Miami with all of the local speed to recruit is thrilling and terrifying.  I really like RR so I hope he doesn't end up at the U, because I hate Miami.  

But I don't see him leaving for somewhere that he doesn't have a perfect read on the cultural fit.  I suspect that he learned something about that in his brief time at Michigan.