Saved By The DBs: All this year Michigan has been plagued by giveaways (6 fumbles and 11 interceptions) and the defense has only 4 fumble recoveries. But, the defense has saved the day with 11 interception takeaways. Michigan has 1.6 interception takeaways per game this year as compared to just 0.5 per game in 2012, and 0.7 in 2011.
Keep Throwing The Damn Ball!: Knowing they would need to score points to beat Indiana, M opened up the offense with a record setting day passing the ball. But, with Indiana ranked #98 in defense rushing yards per attempt coming into the game, it was no surprise that Manball continued with a 63.5% run play percentage for the game and 61.28% for the year (ranked #17). Yards per rush for M is ranked #64. Michigan did open up on first down by passing the ball 36% of the time as opposed to passing just 22% on first downs previously.
MSU is ranked #1 in opponent rushing yards per attempt, #3 in opponent rushing play percentage (41.5%), and #1 in opponent rushing yards per game (at 59.8 YPG with the #2 team – Louisville – allowing 40% more YPG at 83.7). If Michigan is able to run the ball against MSU, I will be shocked!
With 63 points, Michigan improved to #8 in scoring offense but with 47 points allowed plummeted to #57 in scoring defense.
Synopsis: Thanks to the 2 fourth quarter interceptions by Gordon, Michigan's TOM for the game was 0.0 and for the year remains at – 2 (– 0.29 per game) which improved slightly to #81. Turnovers were not a primary factor in determining which team won the game. Prior to the two interceptions, Michigan had a disadvantage of 10.13 expected points and the score was just 49-47. The TOs had obviously kept Indiana in the game and they definitely had a chance to win. With those last two interceptions, M ended the game with a disadvantage of just 1.95 EP.
Gardner did not throw an interception but did fumble the snap from center on 2 yard line. Toussaint fumbled the pitch for his first lost fumble. Player Details: Here is the overall summary for all games by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game).
National Rankings: All rankings include games between two FBS teams ONLY and are from TeamRankings except for forced fumbles which is from CFBStats. The four columns with *** show the best correlation to offense and defense (per Advanced NFL stats).
Turnovers And Winning: This chart shows turnover margin (TOM) at the end of the season versus the percentage of teams with a +4 WLM (8-4 record) or better. [WLM = Win/Loss Margin = Wins – Losses]
Expected Points: The impact of each turnover depends upon the down, the spot the turnover is lost, and the spot the turnover is gained.
This chart shows Expected Points for various yard lines.
This chart shows the basis of EP calculations for each turnover.