All Part Of The Plan?: Now I see – this is just all part of the plan. After all, what do you learn by rolling over an "easy" opponent in what is basically a glorified scrimmage? Pretty much nothing. But, tough come-from-behind victories and overcoming adversity ……… now that is worth something! Oof.
Synopsis: Michigan's TOM for the game was – 3 and for the year it is now – 5 (– 1.25 per game) which is ranked #111. Turnovers were not a primary factor in determining which team won the game. But, the game would not have been nearly as close without the TOs. Michigan suffered a net disadvantage of –7.75 expected points due to the – 3 turnover margin (see details below in section on Expected Points). Michigan's one takeaway saved the day in this game just as their two takeaways saved the day against Akron. Without those interception takeaways, M is sitting at 2-2 and the pitchforks are being wielded.
Morgan made a fabulous interception and Michigan's 6 interception takeaways for the year is ranked #16 in the nation. The Michigan defense is ranked #35 for interception takeaway percentage at 3.7%. Gardner threw two interceptions and now has 8 for the year. M is ranked dead last (#125) for interceptions thrown percentage at 8.3%. Devin also lost his second fumble of the year.
Player Details: Here is the overall summary for all games by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game). .
National Rankings: All rankings include games between two FBS teams ONLY and are from TeamRankings except for forced fumbles which is from CFBStats. The four columns with *** show the best correlation to offense and defense (per Advanced NFL stats).
Turnovers And Winning: This chart shows turnover margin (TOM) at the end of the season versus the percentage of teams with a +4 WLM (8-4 record) or better. [WLM = Win/Loss Margin = Wins – Losses]
Expected Points: The impact of each turnover depends upon the down, the spot the turnover is lost, and the spot the turnover is gained. This week, the first turnover was the most difficult to determine EP. It was 3-6 on the UConn 33. Without the interception, it would have been 4-6 and Michigan could have tried a 50 yard field goal, could have gone for it, or could have punted (boo). Based on the assumptions in the EP table below, there is no lost EP for Michigan in this circumstance.
This chart shows Expected Points for various yard lines.
This chart shows the basis of EP calculations for each turnover.