I completly agree with Gardner. I have my own formula for passer efficiency and it has Gardner at 62nd with an efficiency of 252.76 (supposed to replicate yds/ game so 252.76 yds is as impressive as throwing for 253 ypg) but his ypa is 8.76 and his ypc is 15 which are very good numbers. He is the ultimate give and take.
2013 Turnover Analysis – Updated Thru Penn State
Throw The Damn Ball!: That may sound crazy with M ranked #124 for interceptions thrown percentage. Even with all those TOs, Gardner is ranked #51 in QBR with a 143.5 rating. It is completely ridiculous to believe Michigan can run against opponents that are stacking the box with 8 or more defenders and selling out on the run. Do the math. When the quarterback hands off, the defense has 2 more defenders than the offense has blockers. Unless you force the defense to take some of those defenders out of the box to cover receivers, running the ball will not work. Penn State is ranked #20 in rushing yards allowed per game and M still ran the ball 63% of the time for a paltry 2.8 yards per attempt (Toussaint only averaged 1.0 YPA). M is ranked #9 in rushing defense yards per attempt. So, what do you think the opponents are doing?? Yeah, passing the ball – Opponent rushing play percentage is just 43.7% (ranked #10)! BTW, Indiana is ranked #98 in rushing yards per attempt so don't get all excited if M can run against them. After that MSU #2, ohio #5, Iowa #12, Nebraska #48, NW #83. Throw the damn ball!
Michigan improved to #14 in scoring offense but slipped to #34 in scoring defense. Manball unfortunately continues with a 63% run play percentage for the game and 60.8% for the year (ranked #16). Yards per rush is ranked #69.
Synopsis: Michigan's TOM for the game was +1 and for the year it is now – 2 (– 0.33per game) which improved slightly to #82. Turnovers were not a primary factor in determining which team won the game (but should have been). Michigan had an advantage of 3.34 expected points at the end of regulation even though total turnovers were the same for both teams. Without turnovers, M would have lost in regulation. In OT, the turnover by PSU should have resulted in a Michigan win – it didn't.
Clark got his first 2 fumble recoveries and Ross III had his first forced fumble. Taylor and Wilson both added their second interceptions. Gardner threw two interceptions, had two fumbles, and lost one fumble.
National Rankings: All rankings include games between two FBS teams ONLY and are from TeamRankings except for forced fumbles which is from CFBStats. The four columns with *** show the best correlation to offense and defense (per Advanced NFL stats).
This chart shows Expected Points for various yard lines.
This chart shows the basis of EP calculations for each turnover.