Throw The Damn Ball!: That may sound crazy with M ranked #124 for interceptions thrown percentage. Even with all those TOs, Gardner is ranked #51 in QBR with a 143.5 rating. It is completely ridiculous to believe Michigan can run against opponents that are stacking the box with 8 or more defenders and selling out on the run. Do the math. When the quarterback hands off, the defense has 2 more defenders than the offense has blockers. Unless you force the defense to take some of those defenders out of the box to cover receivers, running the ball will not work. Penn State is ranked #20 in rushing yards allowed per game and M still ran the ball 63% of the time for a paltry 2.8 yards per attempt (Toussaint only averaged 1.0 YPA). M is ranked #9 in rushing defense yards per attempt. So, what do you think the opponents are doing?? Yeah, passing the ball – Opponent rushing play percentage is just 43.7% (ranked #10)! BTW, Indiana is ranked #98 in rushing yards per attempt so don't get all excited if M can run against them. After that MSU #2, ohio #5, Iowa #12, Nebraska #48, NW #83. Throw the damn ball!
Michigan improved to #14 in scoring offense but slipped to #34 in scoring defense. Manball unfortunately continues with a 63% run play percentage for the game and 60.8% for the year (ranked #16). Yards per rush is ranked #69.
Synopsis: Michigan's TOM for the game was +1 and for the year it is now – 2 (– 0.33per game) which improved slightly to #82. Turnovers were not a primary factor in determining which team won the game (but should have been). Michigan had an advantage of 3.34 expected points at the end of regulation even though total turnovers were the same for both teams. Without turnovers, M would have lost in regulation. In OT, the turnover by PSU should have resulted in a Michigan win – it didn't.
Clark got his first 2 fumble recoveries and Ross III had his first forced fumble. Taylor and Wilson both added their second interceptions. Gardner threw two interceptions, had two fumbles, and lost one fumble.
Player Details: Here is the overall summary for all games by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game).
National Rankings: All rankings include games between two FBS teams ONLY and are from TeamRankings except for forced fumbles which is from CFBStats. The four columns with *** show the best correlation to offense and defense (per Advanced NFL stats).
Turnovers And Winning: This chart shows turnover margin (TOM) at the end of the season versus the percentage of teams with a +4 WLM (8-4 record) or better. [WLM = Win/Loss Margin = Wins – Losses]
Expected Points: The impact of each turnover depends upon the down, the spot the turnover is lost, and the spot the turnover is gained.
This chart shows Expected Points for various yard lines.
This chart shows the basis of EP calculations for each turnover.