Ifs, Buts, and Meh: For the third game this year, Michigan has figured out how to dramatically win the TO battle and lose the game. Penn State was +6.9 EP for turnovers, Nebraska was +6.8 EP for turnovers, and Iowa was +10.3 EP for turnovers. That TO margin should have resulted in 2-3 more wins – If the offense hadn't imploded (but it did). Michigan's offense has averaged just 10.5 points in regulation for the past 4 games and that would be ranked #123 nationally. Meh
Synopsis: Michigan's TOM for the game was +3.0 and for the year is now +4.0 (+ 0.36 per game) which improved dramatically to #35. Turnovers were not a primary factor in determining which team won the game.
Countess picked up his fifth interception and this ranks him #8 nationally. Blake is also ranked #4 nationally with 162 interception return yards. Taylor is ranked #25 nationally after his fourth interception for the year and Beyer racked up his first interception. The game ended with Gardner's 10th fumble and fifth lost fumble of the year.
Michigan is now +9.0 in TOM for B1G conference games which is second only to MSU at +11.0. And yet, M is a mediocre 3-4 in conference play.
Versus ohio: I figure it will take a TOM of +6 for M to win this one. Ohio does not commit giveaways with just 1.2 per game ranked #19. For takeaways they average 1.8 per game ranked #39 nationally. For B1G conference games, ohio's TOM is +4.0 and is ranked #4. May god have mercy on our souls.
Player Details: Here is the overall summary for all games by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game).
National Rankings: All rankings include games between two FBS teams ONLY and are from TeamRankings except for forced fumbles which is from CFBStats. The four columns with *** show the best correlation to offense and defense (per Advanced NFL stats).
Turnovers And Winning: This chart shows turnover margin (TOM) at the end of the season versus the percentage of teams with a +4 WLM (8-4 record) or better. [WLM = Win/Loss Margin = Wins – Losses]
Expected Points: The impact of each turnover depends upon the down, the spot the turnover is lost, and the spot the turnover is gained.
This chart shows Expected Points for various yard lines.
This chart shows the basis of EP calculations for each turnover.