I've been giving this a whole lot of thought and while there is no way in hell we will win, the only question is if we will break. Tens of thousands of suckeyes are coming up here to see what they think is a once in a lifetime throttling of us in our own house. They and everybody else expects to see an ugly slaughter, perhaps the most lopsided game in 100 years. All we have to do is keep it close and show them that they cannot ever underestimate us, that no matter how bad we look the rest of the season, this game is all it has been in the past. If we cannot do that, then all IS lost.
2013 Turnover Analysis – Updated Thru Iowa
Ifs, Buts, and Meh: For the third game this year, Michigan has figured out how to dramatically win the TO battle and lose the game. Penn State was +6.9 EP for turnovers, Nebraska was +6.8 EP for turnovers, and Iowa was +10.3 EP for turnovers. That TO margin should have resulted in 2-3 more wins – If the offense hadn't imploded (but it did). Michigan's offense has averaged just 10.5 points in regulation for the past 4 games and that would be ranked #123 nationally. Meh
Synopsis: Michigan's TOM for the game was +3.0 and for the year is now +4.0 (+ 0.36 per game) which improved dramatically to #35. Turnovers were not a primary factor in determining which team won the game.
Countess picked up his fifth interception and this ranks him #8 nationally. Blake is also ranked #4 nationally with 162 interception return yards. Taylor is ranked #25 nationally after his fourth interception for the year and Beyer racked up his first interception. The game ended with Gardner's 10th fumble and fifth lost fumble of the year.
Michigan is now +9.0 in TOM for B1G conference games which is second only to MSU at +11.0. And yet, M is a mediocre 3-4 in conference play.
Versus ohio: I figure it will take a TOM of +6 for M to win this one. Ohio does not commit giveaways with just 1.2 per game ranked #19. For takeaways they average 1.8 per game ranked #39 nationally. For B1G conference games, ohio's TOM is +4.0 and is ranked #4. May god have mercy on our souls.
National Rankings: All rankings include games between two FBS teams ONLY and are from TeamRankings except for forced fumbles which is from CFBStats. The four columns with *** show the best correlation to offense and defense (per Advanced NFL stats).
This chart shows Expected Points for various yard lines.
This chart shows the basis of EP calculations for each turnover.