I thought that myself when I read that article that talked about a Data Scientist(tm)
2013 Turnover Analysis–Updated thru ohio
Blerg: A game that didn't go as expected with a turnover that was very unusual. When Countess intercepted the pass in the second quarter on the Michigan 9 yard line and everyone was cheering, I was saying just knock it down. It was 3rd and 17 on the ohio 31 yard line. After a 7 yard return M had the ball on the Michigan 16 yard line. Ohio would have punted on 4th down and the interception resulted in the same field position as a punt that was a net 53 yards. For the game, ohio had a net of just 38 yards per punt. Michigan had a net negative for that turnover of –0.57 EP. (Of course, a good return was possible which would have resulted in positive EP.)
The interception on the extra point try is not counted in the official stats as a turnover and, obviously, was not any more significant than a pass breakup.
Synopsis: Michigan's TOM for the game was +1.0 and for the year is now +5.0 (+ 0.42 per game) which improved to #33. Turnovers were not a primary factor in determining which team won the game. In fact, turnovers were not a primary factor in determining the winning team in any games that Michigan played this year year.
Countess picked up his sixth interception and this ranks him #4 nationally. Blake is also ranked #3 nationally with 169 interception return yards. Thomas Gordon forced a fumble that was recovered by Desmond Morgan and resulted in Michigan's drive to tie the game at 35-35.
Gardner had his sixth lost fumble of the year in the third quarter. Devin has 11 fumbles and 6 lost fumbles for the year both of which are the worst in the FBS. His 11 interceptions are ranked #20. But his QB rating is still an excellent 146.1 and ranked #33. Just imagine, this year without those turnovers!
Michigan finishes the year at +10.0 in TOM for B1G conference games which is second only to MSU at +12.0. And yet, M ends the year with a dismal 3-5 in conference play.
National Rankings: All rankings include games between two FBS teams ONLY and are from TeamRankings except for forced fumbles which is from CFBStats. The four columns with *** show the best correlation to offense and defense (per Advanced NFL stats).
This chart shows Expected Points for various yard lines.
This chart shows the basis of EP calculations for each turnover.