2011 Michigan Defense: Are You Experienced?
[Ed-M: Apologies to mod who front-paged this. I bumped back to diaries. Plan on discussion in today's Dear Diary.]
I did this diary last year knowing our defense would be extremely inexperienced. Here's hoping the 2011 numbers (and actual Defense) are more kind this year. At the time I did a simple breakdown between upperclassmen (Jr. to 5th) and underclassmen (Fr. to So.) and saw the strength of defenses climbing almost directly with the level of experience.
Michigan fans, myself included, are hopeful that our defense can be average compared to the rest of the conference. From an experience standpoint I believe this is a reasonable goal for 2011.
2011 Michigan Defense
WDE
Jr. Craig Roh
So. Jibreel Black
DT
Sr. Mike Martin
RS Fr. Ken Wilkens
DT
Jr. Will Campbell
RS So. Quinton Washington or RS Fr. Richard Ash
SDE
RS Sr. Ryan VanBergan
RS Sr. Will Heininger
MLB
RS Jr. Kenny Demens or Sr. Marell Evans
WLB
RS So. Mike Jones
RS Sr. Brandon Herron or RS Sr. J.B. Fitzgerald
SLB
RS So. Cameron Gordon
RS Fr. Jake Ryan
SS
RS Jr. Jordan Kovacs
So. Marvin Robinson
FS
So. Carvin Johnson
RS So. Tom Gordon or RS Fr. Josh Furman
CB
RS Sr. Troy Woolfolk
So. Courtney Avery
RS Jr. J.T. Floyd
So. Terrence Talbott
Teams are listed from weakest to strongest based on 2010 Total Defense.
Northwestern
(courtesy of BigTen Nation)
Starters
Upperclassman: 11
Underclassman: 0
Two-Deep
Upperclassman: 16
Underclassman: 6
Indiana
(courtesy of Rivals)
Starters
Upperclassman: 7
Underclassman: 4
Two-Deep
Upperclassman: 15
Underclassman: 7
Minnesota
(courtesy of Scout)
Starters
Upperclassman: 10
Underclassman: 1
Two-Deep
Upperclassman: 12
Underclassman: 10
Purdue
(courtesy of Scout)
Starters
Upperclassman: 8
Underclassman: 3
Two-Deep
Upperclassman: 13
Underclassman: 9
Michigan State
(courtesy of Rivals)
Starters
Upperclassman: 6
Underclassman: 5
Two-Deep
Upperclassman: 12
Underclassman: 10
Illinois
(courtesy of Rivals)
Starters
Upperclassman: 9
Underclassman: 2
Two-Deep
Upperclassman: 14
Underclassman: 8
Penn State
(courtesy of Rivals)
Starters
Upperclassman: 11
Underclassman: 0
Two-Deep
Upperclassman: 14
Underclassman: 8
Iowa
(courtesy of Rivals)
Starters
Upperclassman: 8
Underclassman: 3
Two-Deep
Upperclassman: 14
Underclassman: 8
Wisconsin
(courtesy of Rivals)
Starters
Upperclassman: 8
Underclassman: 3
Two-Deep
Upperclassman: 11
Underclassman: 11
Nebraska
(courtesy of Scout)
Starters
Upperclassman: 10
Underclassman: 1
Two-Deep
Upperclassman: 17
Underclassman: 5
Ohio State
(courtesy of Scout)
Starters
Upperclassman: 10
Underclassman: 1
Two-Deep
Upperclassman: 17
Underclassman: 5
Big Ten Averages:
Starters
Upperclassmen: 8.9
Underclassmen: 2.1
Two-Deep
Upperclassmen: 14.1
Underclassmen: 7.9
Michigan:
Starters
Upperclassmen: 7
Underclassmen: 4
Two-Deep
Upperclassmen: 11
Underclassmen: 11
These numbers are much better than last year and are not too far off from the rest of the Big Ten.
Why That Matters...
After looking at the B10 Total Defense rankings from 2010 there appeared to be three fairly seperate categories of defensive quailty:
Craptastic: 419.9 yds/game (Michigan, Northwestern, Indiana, Minnesota)
Decent: 345.8 yds/game (Purdue, MSU, Illinois, PSU, Iowa, Wisconsin)
Great: 284.5 yds/game (Nebraska, OSU).
There's no difference in the experience of Craptastic and Decent teams but to get from Decent to Great had a huge jump:
| Starters | Craptastic | Decent | Great | Mich 2010 | Mich 2011 |
| Upperclassmen | 8.8 | 8.3 | 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Underclassmen | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| Two-Deep | Craptastic | Decent | Great | Mich 2010 | Mich 2011 |
| Upperclassmen | 13.8 | 12.8 | 17 | 9 | 11 |
| Underclassmen | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5 | 13 | 11 |
This is quite interesting (and different from last year). Most of the B10 teams, including Michigan, seem to be returning the same amount of experience. Michigan is still less experienced but the gap (especially for the starters) is a lot smaller than in previous years.
Another encouraging note is the four underclassmen being pushed into playing time have all at least seen the field and any true freshmen who play do so because they are actually beating out on another player for the spot.
GO BLUE!
August 12th, 2011 at 10:36 PM ^
Image isn't coming through (chrome)
edit: there it is
August 12th, 2011 at 9:20 PM ^
My only critique is that all indications are Jake Ryan will be the back-up to Cam Gordon at SLB. And Thomas Gordon is playing the Nickle Corner (refuse to call it Nickleback, obvious reasons) while Josh Furman was the back-up to Carvin Johnson at FS.
If this has changed since the spring game my apologies in advance.
August 12th, 2011 at 9:30 PM ^
Nickle Back, two words or nickle backer to avoid the horrible band confusion. Agreed on the rest though.
August 12th, 2011 at 9:37 PM ^
Yeah I think you are right about those
August 12th, 2011 at 9:47 PM ^
Mike Jones over Brandon Herron? Jones has been kind of injury prone, and hasn't gotten a lot of on field experience. I think that the coaches will go with experience on this one.
August 12th, 2011 at 10:24 PM ^
More fuel for my defensive optimism.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:03 AM ^
we're still younger than most of our opponents - closer, but still younger. Of course some comparison of number of returning starters would be additional input to consider.
August 12th, 2011 at 10:46 PM ^
I think Blake Countess should be listed somewhere.
August 12th, 2011 at 11:14 PM ^
My only disagreement with your starters is Demens would be starter MLB and WLB would be Evans or Jones or Herron. The only reason Evans started at MLB in the spring was Demens injury. Am I correct in this thinking or have I missed something?
August 12th, 2011 at 11:31 PM ^
I think Evans is going to the backup MIKE. I believe there will be Jones and Herron at WILL, Demens and Evans at MIKE, and Gordon and Ryan at SAM. Not sure where J.B. Fitz fits in there right now. Things will probably change alot by September 3rd.
August 13th, 2011 at 9:01 AM ^
These are two distinct positions in our defense with Martin at NT and BWC at DT. I cannot see Wilkins at 280 playing the nose and in the first practices he has been at SDE (though still listed as DT on the roster). Q has played behind Campbell at DT so is correctly listed on the two deep, but without the "or" because he is well ahead of Ash at this point. As for Martin's backup - hard to say. Ash has the size but has so far not impressed so I am guessing that Q will back up both interior positions with Wilkins getting some time at 3 tech and Ash getting some at NT...... unless eveything changes in the next three weeks....
MODS IF YOU ARE READING THIS I WAS ROBBED OF 620 POINTS YESTERDAY - MY THREAD WAS DELETED AND ALONG WITH IT ALL OF MY POINTS DISAPPEARED - PLEASE CORRECT - THANX!
August 14th, 2011 at 9:47 AM ^
Looks like you were moderated man. This wasn't me but it's in your points record:
| -621 | Approved | 08/12/2011 - 8:33am | admin | Uncategorized | Use the search bar in the top right corner and you won't have this problem anymore. Points back in a month. |
August 14th, 2011 at 10:10 AM ^
Awesome!
August 13th, 2011 at 9:53 AM ^
i like m robinson at strong saftey as a starter.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:02 PM ^
I appreciate the analysis. This is why mgoblog is the leader and the best sports blog around. Not only do we get the blogger to create actual posts of substance, but the readers are just as passionate and informed. As far as the speculation about who will be the starter at this position or that, I don't think it matters much. The players have just strapped on the pads, and this is the best guess we have regarding the 2 deep at this point.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:13 PM ^
I was hoping ppl would focus on the experience part of the post, not my guesses for the 2-deep
August 13th, 2011 at 1:11 PM ^
There's no statistically significant relationship between the number of upperclassmen and whether you're in the "craptastic" or "decent" categories.
A better indicator of our future success would be to look at the number of starting freshmen and how this affects defensive performance. That was one of several problems we had lon defense ast year, the others being very poor coaching and a talent gap with the elite in the conference.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:02 PM ^
JT Floyd will be the other starting corner.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:42 PM ^
Woah, a table would be nice for that team by team breakdown that takes up 4 pages. Would also make comparisons mucho easyo.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:06 PM ^
Any idea who is going to start at SDE next year? Would it be Wilkins? A true frosh? Black maybe?
August 13th, 2011 at 3:20 PM ^
August 13th, 2011 at 3:58 PM ^
If the d can just avg 20 points or less per contest,Michigan could be in the Big X Champion game.
August 13th, 2011 at 7:33 PM ^
To see a Hendrix concert and to remember Bo's first season in '69!
It is nice to have defensive experience. I think this group could reach the good B1G defense category by seasons end.
August 13th, 2011 at 7:59 PM ^
Dude is totally holding that guitar wrong.
August 13th, 2011 at 8:20 PM ^
Absolutely, Jimi H. never held it "right". It also never stopped him from being quite possibly the best guitarist ever.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:43 PM ^
who counts 8 upperclassmen.
August 14th, 2011 at 11:43 AM ^
I spent most of my morning today trying to play with this diary and make it front-page worthy since I couldn't figure out which mod FP'ed it. Ultimately the useful part is knowing how many upperclassmen starters the other Big Ten teams have. What this doesn't do is provide any predictive information.
This isn't front page material. Not yet at least. But I'd like to help it get there.
First, what you show is number of upperclassman starters in 2011, but the last performance values we have are for 2010. What you need is 2010 starter information. The implication is that 2010 performance is related to 2011 upperclassman-ity, which I don't think that's what you meant to say at all.
Second, where's the cutoff? It seems like you counted redshirt sophomores as underclassmen, while true juniors count as upperclassmen, because they're the same age.
Let's use Nebraska 2010 as an example. You appropriately call them a great defense and rank them second to Ohio State, which I think we can concur on. Here's Nebraska's defense as of this date last year:
Six upperclassmen* among 11 starters would be below the Big Ten average, and suggest bad performance:
| Starters (/11) | Two-Deep (/22) | |
| Big Ten Avg. | 8.9 | 14.1 |
| 2010 Craptastic Defenses (M, NW, Ind, Minn) | 8.8 | 13.8 |
| 2010 Decent Ds (Pd, MSU, IL, PSU, Iowa, Wis) | 8.3 | 12.8 |
| 2010 Great Ds (Neb, OSU) | 10 | 17 |
| Michigan 2010 | 5 | 9 |
| Michigan 2011 | 7 | 11 |
So I went back to your original diary last year, updated with Nebraska and Minnesota, and came up with the following:
| Team | 2010 Yds/G | 2010 FEI Rk | '10 Starters | '10 Two-Deep |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 450.8 | 108 | 6 | 8 |
| Northwestern | 426.2 | 100 | 10 | 15 |
| Indiana | 410.2 | 94 | 8 | 14 |
| Minnesota | 392.2 | 95 | 9 | 14 |
| Purdue | 369.0 | 44 | 7 | 8 |
| Michigan State | 353.8 | 32 | 5 | 8 |
| Illinois | 351.3 | 26 | 7 | 12 |
| Penn State | 346.8 | 49 | 10 | 12 |
| Iowa | 332.1 | 22 | 10 | 18 |
| Wisconsin | 321.8 | 34 | 10 | 12 |
| Nebraska | 306.8 | 5 | 6 | 12 |
| Ohio State | 262.2 | 2 | 9 | 11 |
I'll say all of this (with charts) in the DD today.
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