are you referring to? I think most people are predicting a good rebound for us
Mason NEEDS this, Pistons, after all you've put him through
I think that I might just be a "Slappy", but I don't agree with all of the experts about this upcoming season. Last season was so bad because the offense was horrible and couldn't keep the horrible defense off the field. This year will be better because; 1. We will have a pulse offensively. 2. We have competence at the D -coordinator position. As bad as we were, we still could have won four more games.(I use "WE" because, even though I didn't play football or attend, M football is all I know)
I truly think that even though Western is a good team, we should be able to beat them. The only thing that I believe about Weis is that he is one of Earth's downed satelites.(The other being Mangino) I think that without turnovers we will handle ND easier than Western. If we don't beat Eastern it would be a sign of the apocolypse. Beating IU should just be a formality befoe going to EL. I don't believe in those drinking the green and white kool-aid, mainly because without Ringer they would have been sub-par as usual. I think that going to Iowa will be a tough one for us to win. Hopefully we have a week off with Delaware State. All in all, I truly think that we are going to have an 8-4, 9-3, season as long as we don't turn the ball over 40% of the time like last year.(Of course an inflated stat) I'm new and not an English major, so go easy on me.
are you referring to? I think most people are predicting a good rebound for us
Perhaps he means the over/under from Vegas, which is 6 wins. I'm quite skeptical that our defensive coordinator is going to be hugely better; Scott Shafer looked pretty good before he got here, inability to coach a pass defense aside. With great optimism, I can see 5 likely wins on the schedule; add in two that we optimistically steal from better teams and we end up at 7-5, which is the high end short of surprising improvement.
Overall I'd put it down to two factors:
-Defensive coordinator skill
As of right now, I doubt there's going to be a big jump in either, so 6-6 seems more likely. If Forcier is a big improvement after two games and our defense gets back to its old performance, then we could do 8-4. Or if things are as bad as last year except with more Minor and more OL experience, we go 4-8.
8-4 is probably the ceiling for this team this year. I think anything more than 6 to 7 wins would be great. Considering we have to travel to MSU, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin it is very possible we could 6-6 or 7-5. Which would still be a great improvement over last year.
"If we don't beat [insert team] it would be a sign of the apocolypse."
Don't take ANY team for granted. It just hurts more if the worst case happens.
I am excited and nervous. Excited about the new quarterbacks, other freshman, our receivers having a shot at good throws, the development of the running backs with an offensive line now highly rated in the Big Ten.
I fear the defense. An analogy to last year's offense. Last summer, the offensive line was a question mark and then Boren left and Zirbel went down. Threet was highly rated, but the truth was evident in his spring game performance, his losing the starting job to Sheridan, and hints from Magee. I saw the signs and had the information, but I did not know how bad it could be. Weakness at one position had historically been shored up by strength elsewhere. There was no offensive strength last year to do that, and we suffered all year.
Now, there are unproven new names on defense, and veterans that have not performed well. That's right; this year's defense may be worse than last year's defense. It could be 40 points every week, not just some weeks. Can the offense out score that? I think it will, some of the time. I say we win 5 games.
But none of this worries me. This team will develop, and we will be better fans for having lived through the dark period. It will be glorious when we come out into the light. Maybe not this year.
if the offense manages to get it's act together then the defense won't have to spend so much time on the field, as they did last year. That could only help, right?
How many more games would we have won last year if we could field kickoff returns?
I think the entire 2nd half of the season last year, on every kick and punt return I yelled "catch it and kneel down for the love of Tebow!"
Or have the QB be a realistic threat to keep the ball on the zone read. Or hit a 15 yard out pattern. Or block a bubble screen.
I think we have to enjoy the, hopefully, small steps this team takes this year. Better quarterback play, which will hopefully lead to a more flowing offense. Yes, RR did go 9-3 in his second year with WVU, but they were playing in a less than impressive Big East that year. This is still the Big Ten, and our expectations should remain tempered, as such, 6-6 should be considered a good step in the right direction. From there we can continue to build the empire until Death Butterfly has been reached.
What was so awful about the big east that year? Here's the final records and rankings in the AP Poll:
Miami 12-1, #2
VaTech 9-4, #18
Pitt 9-4, #19
WVU 9-4, #25
The big ten only had 4 teams finish in the Top 25 that year (OSU, UM, Iowa and PSU). Now, granted PSU was the lowest at 16th, but that doesn't look at like the Big East was that bad. Maybe those bottom three teams weren't that good but MSU, IU and Northwestern went: 4-8, 3-9 and 3-9 with a combined total of 4 conference wins between them. Not saying the Big East was a great conference in 2002, but I think less then impressive might be a little harsh.
I agree that we'll do better than 5-7 or 6-6 as some (but not many) people are predicting.
The part of this diary that I most disagree with though is this: "I think that without turnovers we will handle ND easier than Western"
Now then, I like a good fat Charlie joke as much as the next bloke but in no way do I think that ND is inferior to Western.
ND definitely has superior talent; Clausen, while very annoying can throw the ball and hit people. I do think that he's far from reaching his potential, but he's a fairly good QB. ND's receivers, especially since they have Golden Tate, are quite good. I'll give you that ND's running game isn't stellar. I know ND is returning a lot of RBs and some of them were okay last year, but I haven't been impressed with ND's running game for a while now. But, ND is returning a lot of their O-line if I'm correct so some more experience there could help the running game.
The point of that last paragraph was just to show that ND has talent, and by this point they should have knowledgeable talent.
As for ND's defense, I know a good deal less (I'm attracted to flashy things and thus focus on learning offenses instead of defenses). I do know that if ND wasn't a Christian school their fans would be calling Tenuta Jesus so that says a lot.
The point of all this is to say that I highly doubt that we're going to have an easier time with ND than Western. I'm going to have to watch some more ND games from last year and hear some more reports on them before I make a firm prediction on that game.
I don't think you can accuse many people around here of having any irrational exuberance. Last season was bleak, and nobody around here is expecting a good or great season. Let's compare to the average case: A 0.740 win percentage translates to 9.62 wins in a 13 game season. Nobody is expecting that. Ten wins is a lot to expect from this team this season.
In summary, we are excited to have football season coming. But we don't think that this team is going to be one of the truly great teams at Michigan (though we hope to be proven wrong on that!). After being punched in the gut from the get-go these past few seasons, I just want to see the Wolverines beat a dead Bronco. (pun intended...sorry everyone, I just can't resist)
Downed satellites inevitably break up upon re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere. After breaking up, most everything also burns up. Which, although it leaves behind the fat joke, still works as an analogy here I think.
+1 from fellow UM Aero nerd
Which year? '04 and '05 for me.
'12 and '13 if all goes well.
Best of luck. Enjoy it. It'll probably be the best years of your life, and the Aero department is a very good one. The Aero industry isn't so bad, either.
I was thinking more along the lines of one of Earth's long lost Natural Satellites!
I think Weiss and Mangino are just debris left over from the moon-forming impact.
The experts that I am referring to are from most of the major publications. I know that no team should be overlooked, but I would introduce vodka intravenously to my body if we lost to EMU. The defense will be better because the offense will be better. The more time the offense spends on the field helps the defense. Plus, I'm sure Robinson is better than Schafer. I in no way am saying that ND doesn't have talent, ND has had talent for a couple of years. I am saying that they are poorly coached, and Western IMO will be better coached. Couple that with Western being the first game, I think it will be harder. But opinions are like A-holes, everyone's gottem!
There are so many areas we can't predict.
1) The play of a freshman qb. Stats are not good here . . . look at the play of other freshman (Tebow, Pryor, et. al.) When freshmen have done well, they typically have many successful veterans surrounding them. Instead, we have . . .
2) An OL that was subpar. Can't predict they'll be great. And, we also have . . .
3) A secondary that was burned repeatedly. And, we have
4) Decent RB's, but still not great.
All in all, it is impossible for me to predict. I just struggle to see have we could possibly do better than 8-4, and 7-5 seems more realistic. Assume 4 victories from bottom feeders, and one heartbreaking loss. I struggle to see how we get more than three wins from OSU, PSU, ND, MSU, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa. If everything breaks our way, maybe four. And that's with a a lot o luck.