2006 recruiting in review
Being draft day, and how much attention we pay to recruiting on this site, I was curious to at least subjectively explore the correlation between a recruits ranking and his chances to be an "impact" player. So looking back at the Rivals Top 100 from 2006 on this draft weekend. A preliminary list (juniors)
Drafted players (1st Day)
1 Percy Harvin
2 Andre Smith
3 Chris Wells
6 Matt Stafford
43 LeSean McCoy
73 Knowshon Moreno
92 Josh Freeman
As these players are juniors I'll include what I'd call impact players (Please point out omissions)
4 Gerald McCoy
8 CJ Spiller
12 Myron Rolle
13 Brandon Spikes
15 Brandon Graham
16 Taylor Mays
22 Tim Tebow
68 Jake Locker
Contributors
50 Charles Scott
61 Jevan Snead
I really don't watch enough out-of-conference games to evaluate the lineman and most of the defensive players on the list for now.
Michigan's 2006 Top 100 players
15 Brandon Graham
26 Stephen Schilling
39 Carlos Brown
45 Jonas Mouton
64 Justin Boren
91 Adam Patterson
93 Greg Matthews
At first look, I thought with 7 top 100 players, we would see more impact from this bumper crop, but 1 of 7 seems to match the overall hit rate at this point for the class. Comparing to matriculated classes...
2005
1 Derrick Williams
2 Patrick Turner
3 Eugene Monroe
5 Rey Maualuga
7 Mark Sanchez
10 Jonathan Stewart
12 Kenneth Phillips
18 DeSean Jackson
19 Justin King
20 Alex Boone
23 Darren McFadden
29 Mohammed Massaquoi
34 Roy Miller
45 Mario Manningham
48 Michael Oher
53 Brian Cushing
56 Travis Beckum
57 Jamaal Charles
59 Ricky Jean-Francois
62 Curtis Lofton
64 Reggie Smith (3rd Rd Pick)
68 Malcolm Kelly
78 Everette Brown
90 Rashard Mendenhall
96 Terrance Taylor (Late Round Draft Pick?)
This 2005 class seems loaded, and still only 25%
2004
1 Adrian Peterson
2 Ted Ginn, Jr
3 Early Doucet
5 Keith Rivers
8 Derrick Harvey
13 Chad Henne
18 Franklin Okam (5th Round)
19 Fred Davis
28 Marshawn Lynch
31 Marcus Freeman
36 Thomas Brown (6th Round)
37 Calvin Johnson
44 Dwayne Jarrett
47 Glenn Dorsey
50 Stephen McGee
61 Lawrence Timmons
78 Brian Brohm
79 Tony Temple
2003
1 Ernie Sims
2 Reggie Bush
4 Andre Caldwell
6 Prescott Burgess
10 Greg Olsen
14 Lamarr Woodley
17 Chad Jackson
20 Robert Meachem
23 Victor Abiamiri
25 Jarvis Moss
26 Chris Leak
28 Michael Bush
30 Steve Smith
39 Shawn Crable
40 Antonio Cromartie
48 Vernon Davis
54 Maurice Drew
57 Dennis Dixon
60 Michael Griffin
61 Reggie Nelson
68 Sedrick Ellis
69 Lawrence Jackson
79 Jamarcus Russell
81 Tavares Gooden
87 Laron Landry
90 Thomas Williams (5th Round Pick)
91 Sam Baker
96 Ryan Mundy (Gulp)
From the albeit small sample it seems like recent history suggests that 1 in 4 of Rivals Top 100 products will be nationally recognized contributors or draft-worthy. Here's hoping Matthews or Schilling can step-up into that status to match or exceed what seems to be the population mean. Going through this exercise really did solidify for me the term "Lottery tickets" when used with scholarships.
(And if you're curious about our Top 100 recruits from other classes the list is below)
2009
26 William Campbell
35 Justin Turner
2008
41 Darryl Stonum
44 Boubacar Cissoko
49 Dann O'Neill
2007
4 Ryan Mallett
25 Donovan Warren
91 Toney Clemons
2005 Michigan Class
22 Kevin Grady
37 Marques Slocum
45 Mario Manningham
49 Antonio Bass
83 Cory Zirbel
96 Terrance Taylor
2004 Michigan Class
13 Chad Henne
40 Tim Jamison
80 Alex Mitchell
96 Brett Gallimore
98 Doug Dutch
2003
6 Prescott Burgess
14 Lamarr Woodley
39 Shawn Crable
71 Clay Richard
89 Jim Presley
96 Ryan Mundy
from UM's top 100 players the past few years (attrition for multiple reasons) really puts the "UM is always stacked" argument to rest. Sure, UM has more talent than a lot of teams, and out "recruits" most teams, but losing 5/9 of your top 100 recruits in two years of classes (05/07... what about 06?) hurts.
Was listed earlier in the post.
C&P'd here:
Michigan's 2006 Top 100 players
15 Brandon Graham
26 Stephen Schilling
39 Carlos Brown
45 Jonas Mouton
64 Justin Boren
91 Adam Patterson
93 Greg Matthews
Add another one to the list of attrition, and as you already pointed out, not a ton of impact (yet) from the remaining top 100. Hopefully Schilling's move inside changes that, and Mouton/Brown fight off injuries.
April 27th, 2009 at 12:03 AM ^
Small sample size, but here we go:
2009
26 William Campbell
35 Justin Turner
2008
41 Darryl Stonum
44 Boubacar Cissoko
49 Dann O'Neill
2007
4 Ryan Mallett
25 Donovan Warren
91 Toney Clemons
2006 Top 100 players
15 Brandon Graham
26 Stephen Schilling
39 Carlos Brown
45 Jonas Mouton
64 Justin Boren
91 Adam Patterson
93 Greg Matthews
2005 Michigan Class
22 Kevin Grady
37 Marques Slocum
45 Mario Manningham
49 Antonio Bass
83 Cory Zirbel
96 Terrance Taylor
Those are all the guys that could still be on the roster this year, assuming they took a red shirt. That's a total of 21, by my count.
Already in the NFL: (2/21)
Manningham and Taylor
Likely to get drafted: (1)
Graham
Reasonable chance to get drafted: (3)
Schilling, Mathews, Warren
Attrition: (4/21)
Slocum (grades), Boren, Mallet, and Clemons
Lost to injury: (2/21)
Zirbel, Bass
Still to early to tell with regards to a lot of these guys, but Stonum and Cissoko both saw the field early, and Campbell has such a great build that I imagine he'll at least get a shot at the NFL draft (unless he completely screws up). I have to imagine that between Stonum, Cissoko, Campbell, and Turner, we'll have at least 1 NFL draft pick.
So of the 21 guys who could still be on the 2009 roster, 6 seem (or already are) draft-worthy. I realize that's subjective, but 6/21 is not out of line with the 25% average that the original poster suggested.
If you want to look at the two earlier classes: Henne, Woodley and Crable got drafted (and Prescott signed as a FA, I think). That makes 3/11. Again, not out of line with the 25% that the original poster suggested as the average.
My point is that I think we're pretty much in line with expectations as far as results from Top 100 players go.
I'm not sure that these stats put the "UM is always stacked" argument to rest. There is some subjectivity in the statistic (i.e. what exactly does it mean to be a nationally recognized contributor?), but the original poster suggests (roughly) that 25% of Top 100 players become nationally recognized.
I would say that UM's recruits fall within that statistic. That is to say, I don't think you can argue that less than 1/4 of our top 100 recruits becomes an impact player. Doesn't matter if the reason is that the recruit transfers, injures himself, or simply isn't that good. At the end of the day, we've had just as much success from our top 100's as the original poster suggests is average. Indeed, I think more than 1/4 of our top 100's have become "very good" or "nationally recognized" or whatever you wanna call it.
If anything, the stat that jumps out at me is that we haven't been getting as many Top 100's as we have in the past.
I think you look at any of those recruiting lists with a massive grain of salt. Heck, Derrick Williams led the 2005 class and was just drafted as a kick returner by the 0-16 Lions. That said, you do notice that many of Michigan's "top talent" have either left or failed to perform to the level expected of them. Part of that might have to do with the coaching shift, but I think it goes more to the theory that Carr's recruiting and player development started to slip the last few years, and that lack of depth started to show in 2007 and 2008.
April 26th, 2009 at 10:05 PM ^
Just curious: How do you reconcile your theory on Carr's player development with your statement that the list should be taken with a massive grain of salt, and that Williams didn't live up to expectations, either?
Doesn't it seem like Michigan's development is roughly in line with that of other teams (ex: PSU and Derrick Williams)?
I'd be curious to see if our % of impact players (or players drafted) is any lower than that of OSU, Florida, Texas, etc. We should probably leave USC out of the comparison.
"I think it goes more to the theory that Carr's recruiting and player development started to slip the last few years, and that lack of depth started to show in 2007 and 2008."
Co-signed. Michigan just needs to sweat this out for 1-2 more years, and then hopefully the Top 100 talent will start to pan out for M a little more consistently.
For the 2006 class i would put Jevan Sneed as an impact player rather than a contributor. Not that it is relevant but i think he may have a breakout year at Ole Miss.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:19 AM ^
concerned about the drop off in numbers of top 100 players. We were getting six, now we're getting 2 or 3.
Looking at the UM Top 100's over the years, there's an awful lot of injury and flame outs.
So yeah, while it looks like Michigan landed a higher number of Top 100s in the past, a high percentage didn't pan out for one reason or another.
Besides this point, I'd like to call ESPN's ranking system to task the second they suggest that Alex Mitchell or Brett Gallimore were Top 100 athletes.
I mean, if that was really their ranking, then I'm hoping recruit flame outs happen to other teams not called "Michigan" at an similarly alarming rate.
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