the just released schedules were a flat-out statement that the B10 doesn't believe SOS will matter in playoff selection
#1 teams at the end of January--the historical record
Filed under:
[ed-s: bumped from the beoard]
[ed-yeo: added seed information]
Thought it might be useful to look through a poll archive and see who was #1 in the last January AP poll each year and where they finished the season. I went back to 1960 but, as you'll see, results in the early years are qualitatively different, partly because the tournament was smaller then but mostly thanks to UCLA. The January #1 made the final four 14 of 15 years from 1960-1974, a string weirdly followed shortly thereafter by a stretch where 4 of 8 got knocked out in the first round. In the last 30 years they've finished as follows:
- 4 won national titles
- 3 lost in title game
- 6 lost in national semifinal
- 7 lost in regional final
- 7 lost in round of 16
- 2 lost in round of 32
- 1 lost in round of 64
(Yes, the last 11 months of 1990 were a bad time for Missouri basketball.)
Seeding as we know it began in 1979. Since then, 25 of 34 January #1's were 1 seeds, 7 schools dropped to #2 and 2 dropped to #3.
The last January #1's to not make the tournament were Kentucky in 1954, banned for a point-shaving scandal, and Seton Hall in 1953, who chose to play in the then-more-prestigious (at least for east coast schools) NIT. Don't think we have to worry about either of those outcomes.
Here's the list (all teams were seeded #1 unless otherwise noted):
- 2012: Kentucky, national champion
- 2011: Ohio State, lost to Kentucky in regional semifinal
- 2010: Kentucky, lost to West Virginia in regional final
- 2009: Duke, #2 seed, lost to Villanova in regional semifinal
-
2008:
MemphisVacated, lost to Kansas in national final - 2007: Florida, national champion
- 2006: Connecticut, lost to George Mason in regional final
- 2005: Illinois, lost to North Carolina in national final
- 2004: Duke, lost to Connecticut in national semifinal
- 2003: Arizona, lost to Kansas in regional final
- 2002: Duke, lost to Indiana in regional semifinal
- 2001: Stanford, lost to Maryland in regional final
- 2000: Cincinnati, #2 seed, lost to Tulsa in second round
- 1999: Connecticut, national champion
- 1998: Duke, lost to Kentucky in regional final
- 1997: Kansas, lost to Arizona in regional semifinal
-
1996:
MassachusettsVacated, lost to Kentucky in national semifinal - 1995: Massachusetts, #2 seed, lost to Oklahoma State in regional final
- 1994: Duke, #2 seed, lost to Arkansas in national final
- 1993: Kansas, #2 seed, lost to North Carolina in national semifinal
- 1992: Duke, national champion
- 1991: UNLV, lost to Duke in national semifinal
- 1990: Missouri, #3 seed, lost to Northern Iowa in first round
- 1989: Oklahoma, lost to Virginia in regional semifinal
- 1988: Arizona, lost to Oklahoma in national semifinal
- 1987: North Carolina, lost to Syracuse in regional final
- 1986: North Carolina, #3 seed, lost to Louisville in regional semifinal
- 1985: St.John's, lost to Georgetown in national semifinal
- 1984: North Carolina, lost to Indiana in regional semifinal
- 1983: UCLA, #2 seed, lost to Utah in round of 32
- 1982: Missouri, #2 seed, lost to Houston in regional semifinal
- 1981 (tie): Oregon State, lost to Kansas State in round of 32
- 1981 (tie): Virginia, lost to North Carolina in national semifinal
- 1980: DePaul, lost to UCLA in round of 32
- 1979: Notre Dame, lost to Michigan State in regional final
- 1978: Kentucky, national champion
- 1977: San Francisco, lost to UNLV in first round
- 1976: Indiana, national champion
- 1975: Indiana, lost to Kentucky in regional final
- 1974: UCLA, lost to North Carolina St. in national semifinal
- 1973: UCLA, national champion
- 1972: UCLA, national champion
- 1971: Marquette, lost to Ohio State in regional semifinal
- 1970: UCLA, national champion
- 1969: UCLA, national champion
- 1968: Houston, lost to UCLA in national semifinal
- 1967: UCLA, national champion
- 1966: Duke, lost to Kentucky in national semifinal
- 1965: UCLA, national champion
- 1964: UCLA, national champion
- 1963: Cincinnati, lost to Loyola in national final
- 1962: Ohio State, lost to Cincinnati in national final
- 1961: Ohio State, lost to Cincinnati in national final
- 1960; Cincinnati, lost to California in national semifinal
January 29th, 2013 at 10:34 PM | 
Would be interesting to get
Would be interesting to get
January 30th, 2013 at 1:42 PM |
1975 Indiana team
1975 Indiana team
The '75 Hoosiers were undefeated, but Scott May broke his arm just before the tournament. They lost to Kentucky. May played a little in that game with a cast on his arm if I recall correctly. Indiana would have won it all if May had not gotten injured. UCLA won it after surviving first-round scare from Michigan in overtime. It was the first year that two teams from the same conference were allowed in the tournament.
January 29th, 2013 at 10:37 PM |
It's an interesting list to
It's an interesting list to
It's an interesting list to be sure. Thanks for posting.
January 29th, 2013 at 10:40 PM |
Good work. Did we win?
Good work. Did we win?
Good work. Did we win?
"the Spirit of Michigan...is based on a deathless loyalty to Michigan and all her ways....and a conviction that nowhere is there a better university, in any way, than this Michigan of ours" - Fielding Yost
January 29th, 2013 at 10:52 PM |
Thank you!
Thank you!
I was thinking of doing this exact same research (well maybe not so far back) and I just had too much going on in life. But, I was really curious about it and almost posted a request for someone to do it. Many many thanks. (If I knew how to pos bang on mobile for you, I would.)
January 30th, 2013 at 10:34 AM |
"I was thinking of doing this exact same..."
"I was thinking of doing this exact same..."
OH, Surrrre....
You probably also thought of the iPod before Steve Jobs did, huh???
I keeed, I keeed
The Team, The Team, The Team
January 29th, 2013 at 10:54 PM |
Thanks
Thanks
I am constantly amazed by the dedication and intellect of those on this blog. Nice work. Thanks.
Semper Fidelis!
January 29th, 2013 at 11:02 PM |
Great info
Great info
For some Michigan context, it looks like in the last 30 years only two teams have failed to make the Sweet 16. One of those teams (Cincinnati, 2000), saw the player of the year get hurt right before the tourney.
Since getting that far would constitute our best season since '94, that is pretty encouraging. Since "only" making the Sweet 16 would be kind of a disappointment with the way the year has gone so far, this continues to be a strange season for me and many others.
It is spelled HOKEAMANIA. Our coach is an ass-kicking American citizen, not one of the Beatles, for Christ's sake!
January 29th, 2013 at 11:15 PM |
I would assume
I would assume
That the overall trend would be going backwards towards losing earlier because the paridy is drastically better these days then 30 years ago. A quick scan seemed to agree with this, but that was a really quick look at the results above. Either way though, Michigan is in a pretty good position if they keep playing up to their potential.
January 29th, 2013 at 11:22 PM |
sort of true
sort of true
except for that weird stretch from 1977-1983, when Bill Cartwright's USF got walloped by UNLV in their first game in '78, Oregon State was 26-0 before they lost their last game of the regular season and then lost in the first round of the '81 tournament, UCLA somehow managed to lose in the first round to a Utah team that came into the tournament 15-13, and DePaul finished the regular season ranked #1 three years in a row and lost in the first round every time.
That was parity.
January 30th, 2013 at 12:50 AM |
Paridy
Paridy
I simply cannot agree that the parody today is drastically better than 30 years ago. 30 years ago we had such masterpieces as Airplane (1980) and This is Spinal Tap (1984). What do we have now, Scary Movie 5 and Dance Flick?
January 29th, 2013 at 11:17 PM |
Michigan will be the first
Michigan will be the first
Michigan will be the first team to 20 wins barring a collapse tomorrow night (due to Witchita St. losing tonight, Gonzaga may join us Thursday night, and Kansas will probably join us Saturday night). Sh*t's sweet, right about now. Good work OP. I like looking back that far; it's neater to see the history rather than, say, just the past 10-15 years.
January 29th, 2013 at 11:17 PM |
Nice analysis.
Nice analysis.
You must have far too much free time though.
January 29th, 2013 at 11:30 PM |
Glad I'm not the only one who
Glad I'm not the only one who
Glad I'm not the only one who thinks so
If you see someone in an airport with Michigan logos on luggage and they are wearing a pilot uniform come say hello.
January 30th, 2013 at 12:31 AM |
Thank you OP for your
Thank you OP for your
Thank you OP for your undoubtably time consuming and thorough analysis. You sir win the coveted MgrowOld's BUSY BEAVER award for today's posts.
January 30th, 2013 at 1:02 AM |
Some Context
Some Context
So breaking down the last 10 years (first season of KenPom data)
Sweet 16 - 2
2011 #1 Ohio State (#1 Overall / #1 AdjO / #5 AdjD)
Context: Team with Diebler, Sullinger, Buford finished 32-2 and won the Big 10 double. Lose to decent Kentucky team with Brandon Knight hitting the game winner in the waning seconds.
2009 #2 Duke (#11 Overall / 10 AdjO / 20 AdjD)
Context: Stacked team with Nolan Smith, Scheyer, Paulus, Plumlee the Elder and Gerald Henderson lose to talented Villanova team. Looking back over their schedule, gave lots of points on the road to UNC and Clemson. Lost to Michigan.
Elite 8 - 3
2010 #1 Kentucky (#6 Overall / #7 AdjO / #15 AdjD)
Context: Lots of freshmen on this team. 4 went in the 1st round of the draft. Plus Patrick Patterson and and DeAndre Liggins and some other good role players. Lost to less talented 2-seeded West Virginia team. Remember being shocked at the outcome of the game.
2006 #1 Connecticut (#4 Overall / #3 AdjO / #16 AdjD)
Context: Do we all remember this game? Future NBA players on UConn. Unheralded players on tiny George Mason's team. OT? One of those games that makes the tournament so damn fun.
2003 #1 Arizona (#4 Overall / #12 AdjO / #7 AdjD)
Context: Can't remember too much about this team but lost a 3-point game to #2 seed Kansas.
Final Four - 1
2004 #1 Duke (#1 Overall / #2 AdjO / #4 AdjD)
Context: Lost one point game to UConn team featuring Emeka Okafor and Ben Gordon who would go #2 and #3 in that year's draft. Great game between two great teams. Remember at the time this being the de facto national championship game. Other semifinal featured Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State.
National Championship Game - 2
2005 #1 Illinois (#2 Overall / #3 AdjO / #11 AdjD)
Dee Brown. Deron Williams. Luther Head. Great team that was undefeated until last day of the regular season. Came back from 10 down with like 3 minutes left to make Final Four. Lost to UNC team featuring Ray Felton, Rashad McCants, Sean May, Jawad Williams. No shame in that.
2008 #1 Memphis (#2 Overall / #4 AdjO / #4 AdjD)
Basically tore a path through the season. Lost 1 game all season. Was on the verge of winning the title until free throw yips set in. Heroic shot by Mario Chalmers needed to force OT.
Won Championship - 2
2007 #1 Florida (#2 Overall / #1 AdjO / #12 AdjD)
Second year of Brewer, Horford, Noah with two heady guards leading the way. Undisputed favorite headed in. Beat that annoying Oden/Conley team in the title game.
2012 #1 Kentucky (#1 Overall / #2 AdjO / #9 AdjD)
Featured top 2 picks in NBA draft. Stacked from top to bottom. Lost twice all year. Would be comparable if Trey Burke and Glenn Robinson went 1-2 in this year's draft. That's unlikely to happen.
So, what can we gleam from this?
Basically, Michigan has a 50-50 shot of making the Final Four and is almost certain to grab a #1 seed. Best comparables as far as talent goes would be 2011 Ohio State team and 2005 Illinois team where there's no Anthony Davis, Al Horford, Derrick Rose and multiple lottery picks (although Burke should be and GR3 is close). Bad match-up in Sweet 16 could be worrisome, but barring collapse down the stretch, should at least see us in the Elite 8. Match-up against equally talented #2 seed could go either way. Parity amongst top teams could create easier path to title. Problem: not nearly as dominant as those Florida or Kentucky teams.
January 30th, 2013 at 8:06 AM |
I'm not yet ready to say
I'm not yet ready to say
I'm not yet ready to say we're almost certainly getting a #1 seed. The next two weeks will decide that.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:23 PM |
I agree
I agree
Way premature to say we are no 1. Would be disappointed if we were not but tough part of the schedule starts after this next game.
Be the change, I want you to be.
January 30th, 2013 at 3:46 PM |
2003 Arizona
2003 Arizona
was Luke Walton's senior year.
Some real talent on that squad: Andre Iguodala, Channing Frye, Salim Stoudamire. Iguodala didn't even start, that's how good they were. They had beaten Kansas during the regular season by 17.
February 1st, 2013 at 1:33 PM |
"almost certain to be a #1 seed..."?
"almost certain to be a #1 seed..."?
Should have done this the first time through the data, since it was sitting there; I've added seed information to the list above. Historically there's about an 75% chance of getting a 1 seed.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:56 AM |
Here are the four NCAA champions:
Here are the four NCAA champions:
- 1999 UConn: ranked #2 preseason, included future NBA draft picks Khalid El-Amin, James Voskhul, and 1st team All-American Rip Hamilton
- 1992 Duke: defending national champs, pretty much wire-to-wire #1
- 2007 Florida: see above
- 2012 Kentucky: pretty much wire-to-wire #1
Out of the four, three of them were clearly the class of college hoops the entire season. So I'm sayin' there's a chance.
January 30th, 2013 at 11:06 AM |
Sorry to be that guy but its
Sorry to be that guy but its
Sorry to be that guy but its Jake Voskuhl... that 1999 UConn team was pretty amazing to watch- they only lost two games both with players sitting out- but still came in as huge underdogs to a Duke team that lost on the last play if I recall correctly to Cincinnati in a nuetral site game. Not often a two-loss team with an all-american is a considerable underdog...
I don't really think we mirror any of these teams that won either. Most #1 teams at the end of January are vdery good- and like many have said if we don't make the sweet 16 it will be incredibly disapointing. We should be a #1 seed and come in as one of the top hand few of teams expected to win- but like Brian keeps saying being the favorite still means you are more likely to lose than win it...
January 30th, 2013 at 8:39 AM |
Nearly 50%Chance of Final Four
Nearly 50%Chance of Final Four
13/30 or 43% made Final Four. How do you like them apples? Long way to go, but this team shows heart, grit, talent and teamwork.
January 30th, 2013 at 10:52 AM |
Last 10 years back that up - 5 of 10 made Final Four (see above)
Last 10 years back that up - 5 of 10 made Final Four (see above)
That, to me, would satisfy me that this team played to its potential -- once you get to the Final Four, anything they do beyond that is gravy. (Remind me I said this when I'm crushed w/despair after they lose in the title game...) Lots of randomness in the tourney, obviously, but this team should make the Elite 8 at minimum if they keep playing as they are now.
January 30th, 2013 at 8:53 AM |
Research is a hallmark of MGoBlog
Research is a hallmark of MGoBlog
That's yeoman work here.
January 30th, 2013 at 11:50 AM |
I am surprised by the lack of
I am surprised by the lack of
I am surprised by the lack of B1G teams in there. Only two since the mid-70's until now.
Doctor Wolverine
January 30th, 2013 at 2:27 PM |
Great post
Great post
Thanks for your work on this post. I think you hit the "sweet spot" here: a lot of info amalgamated into a concise, easy-to-understand package.
Bravo.
Would be interesting to get more context, though much more work Im sure. For example in 2000 Cincinnati got bounced early because Kenyon Martin broke his leg right before the tourney.