You Say It Is A Toenail; I Say It Is In Your Heart Nonetheless Comment Count

Brian

3/23/2017 – Michigan 68, Oregon 69 – 26-12, season over

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[Joseph Dressler]

There are few things more haunting in sports than coming up on the short end of a bonafide one-point basketball game. There are so many points and so many opportunities to get two more or prevent two more that it is impossible not to inventory all the slight tweaks in the universe that could have gotten you one step closer to the promised land, or at least destruction at the hands of Kansas.

The wide open DJ Wilson layup and two Duncan Robinson threes that were halfway down stand out in this regard. So too does the late Oregon free throw miss that Wilson couldn't box out on. And then there is the blizzard of threes that did not go halfway down, for reasons.

Oregon's approach seemed to be "leave Michigan blitheringly wide open from three and see what happens." Michigan took more threes than twos, and if any of them seemed unreasonable it was only in aggregate. There will be some complaints about Michigan launching early in the shot clock, but the vast majority of Michigan's 31 attempts from behind the arc were preceded by my inner monologue—and sometimes the external one, too—yelling "shoot that." A couple of ugly ones should have been rhythm catch and shoot opportunities that Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Mo Wagner, collectively 0-8 in this game, passed up on to dribble themselves into worse shots.

This is certainly a way to play against a John Beilein team. Usually it's a way to get your face melted off. The shattered corpse of Oklahoma State basketball would like a word at this point. That word is "aaaargh."

-------------------

And yet.

Michigan hit a respectable 11 of 31—36 percent. This was not enough. It was not enough even though they won the style contest on defense. Oregon only got up 10 transition shots, which they did poorly on. A third of their shots were the two point jumpers Michigan strives to force and Oregon is very bad at. They hit 25%.

If you'd told me all the peripheral numbers from this game beforehand I'd have taken it in a hot second. I would not have believed you if you'd told me that despite those numbers Michigan's offense would look like a hamster searching for a wheel for big chunks of the game.

Dana Altman's combination of the half-ass press a bunch of teams run now that the shot clock is down to 30 and 40% matchup zone got Michigan off balance. A plan to punish the incessant switching by replicating the second half against Louisville ended up with some poor Wagner shots and turnovers; Wagner spent the last ten minutes on the bench in favor of Duncan Robinson, who seemingly couldn't guard anyone on the floor.

The game was just... off. With virtually every ticket in the sweaty palms of Kansas fans the arena was near-empty at tipoff and dead throughout. That gave a tense, taught game an unfortunate NBA D-League or NCAA hockey regional vibe, and while I don't think that caused the ugly game it certainly reinforced it. It was weirdly muted for one of the most important games of the college basketball season.

It was ugly to the point where a final score close to 70 for both teams is unexpected. Michigan perpetually felt eight points behind and suddenly they were in the lead with two minutes left, sort of like the Oklahoma State and Louisville games. And then.

In the aftermath you're left grasping at opportunities spurned, at whatever air eddies pushed this ball a micron away from a good-enough trajectory, at this breakdown or that breakdown that would go almost entirely unremarked upon if not for the fact that Oregon had N and Michigan had N –1.

An inch; a point; it's been a year of almosts for Michigan athletics.

Bullets

Rather satisfying all the same. Losing a one-point Sweet Sixteen game is no shame. It's a hard thing to do, winning basketball games against good teams. Michigan picked up a banner, got a measure of Louisville revenge, and was amongst the best teams in the country for a full half season. Over the full span they finished 20th on Kenpom.

This wasn't a return to the Burke/Stauskas years but it was a solid top 25 season.

The Walton; the Irvin. I pulled the "Zak Irvin is happening" tag out of mothballs for this game because he was happening, man. His late surge as he re-found his excellent-third-banana level was such that everybody had to stop complaining about him. This is a monumental internet accomplishment. He held Michigan in this game, hit tough late-clock shots, and was clearly on another level from Duncan Robinson as he checked Oregon's perimeter guys.

Building on that? Obviously much hinges on the return of Wilson and Wagner. I'd guess with their tough final games and the super deep draft—DX has Caleb Swanigan 30th!—both will return for another year of that sweet Beilein development. Both guys are potential lottery picks if they continue to improve at a decent clip. Right now there are sufficient questions that they'd be borderline first rounders.

If Michigan does not have any unexpected departures you're looking at something like:

  1. Xavier Simpson/Eli Brooks
  2. MAAR/Jordan Poole
  3. Charles Matthews/Duncan Robinson
  4. DJ Wilson/Isaiah Livers
  5. Mo Wagner/Jon Teske/Austin Davis

Michigan does have an open scholarship they could use on either Mo Bamba—uh not likely—or one of the late risers they've done so well with; there are also a number of intriguing transfer options. Since Brooks and Poole may not be impact freshmen, an immediately eligible backcourt scorer would be real nice. You've probably heard about faintly ludicrous Chippewa Marcus Keene and his 37% usage. Keene shot 82/51/37 on incredible volume and had an excellent assist rate on a bad MAC team that was nonetheless 56th in offensive efficiency.

There's also New Mexico guard Elijah Brown, another 30%+ usage player with decent efficiency. His three point shooting fell off this year but he was near 40% a year ago (on 226 attempts); he gets to the line and his excellent FT shooting implies that his rough two point percentages are more about his situation than his talent.

Or Michigan could go the Matthews route again and attempt to acquire the services of blue-blood transfer Chase Jeter, who's leaving Duke after two injury-plagued years. Jeter is a 6'10" post and would have to sit out, so he's not an ideal fit for the roster. I'd still poke around there because the rate of big washout is so high. You can't count on both Teske and Davis being around in two years. See: all of college basketball.

Tourney coverage complaint. There are way too many fouls that don't get replays to check on them. DJ Wilson's second was a potentially dubious call on which a second look would have been very helpful; instead nothing.

Also in complaints: I have no idea how anyone can listen to Reggie Miller and think "I should pay this person to do this thing."

Comments

UMinSF

March 24th, 2017 at 1:28 PM ^

I think Oregon blundered horribly to even let Walton have a look. They had 2 fouls to give with under 10 seconds in the game.  

At the very least, they should have forced 2 more inbounds plays. If they focus on Walton, they force someone else to hoist up a last shot, with very little time to create space.

Look at the end of the Gonzaga game - WVU didn't even get a shot off in the last 10 seconds.

Walton got a GREAT look.

In the postgame, even an Oregon player said "We were fortunate Walton didn't make that last shot".

 

mgoblue98

March 25th, 2017 at 2:10 AM ^

no.  In this situation the shot he took was the best look.  It wasn't like he put up a ridiculous jack with 12 seconds left.  I think Michigan had around 9.4 seconds left when they inbounded the ball and Oregon was playing tight defense.  DJ Wilson got caught watching the shot instead of heading to the glass. 

funkywolve

March 24th, 2017 at 12:44 PM ^

Irvin had actually been rock solid for a while.  Starting with the BTT:

Purdue:  13 pts (6-13), 7 rebs, 2 assists, 2 to's

Minny:  13 pts (5-8), 5 rebs, 4 assists, 1 to

Wisky:  15 pts (6-9), 7 rebs, 5 assists, 3 to's

OSU:  16 pts (6-11), 1 reb, 3 assists, 0 to

Louisville:  11 pts (5-9) 4 rebs, 2 assists, 2 to's

That's 13 ppg, 56% FG, 5 rebs/game, 3 assists/game, 1.5 to's/game in the BTT and NCAA tourney before last night.

skurnie

March 24th, 2017 at 1:00 PM ^

And these stats don't measure that he was probably our best defender during this stretch as well.

He turned into a good defender this season, which seemed like the Impossible just last year. 

UMinSF

March 24th, 2017 at 3:47 PM ^

playing at an extremely high level. Very efficient scoring, tough, tough defense and outstanding leadership.

It also felt like he chose absolutely critical moments to step up, especially in the last few games. He was brilliant at the end last night.

No caveats - Irvin was simply outstanding during Michigan's stellar and exciting run.

MGoBlue-querque

March 24th, 2017 at 12:54 PM ^

I admit to being one of the fans who needs to eat some crow about Walton and Irvin.  They turned this season around and drove this team to the Sweet 16, which is pretty damned good.  Walton's shoes will be tough to fill next year...but I look forward to seeing how it happens and trust that Beilein can get it done.

UofM Die Hard …

March 24th, 2017 at 12:54 PM ^

got a banner, and a deep run...well done. Inch more and we are going to elite 8..thats how it goes.

 

If DJ and Moe come back, been saying that a lot these past handful of years, team should be pretty solid.  Very excited to finally see Charles play...great season, looking forward to next!

UofM Die Hard …

March 24th, 2017 at 12:54 PM ^

got a banner, and a deep run...well done. Inch more and we are going to elite 8..thats how it goes.

 

If DJ and Moe come back, been saying that a lot these past handful of years, team should be pretty solid.  Very excited to finally see Charles play...great season, looking forward to next!

Stay.Classy.An…

March 24th, 2017 at 12:56 PM ^

would be nice but I'd like Beilein and staff to take a look at Eric Williams Jr. who is a Senior out of New Haven in Michigan. He is 6'5 now (could possibly gain one more inch?) and really started to get noticed late in the recruiting cycle (like summer of his Junior year late) I think he has the ceiling to be a Caris Levert type player, plus you can never have too many lefties. Plus with Camp Sanderson and Beilein, you never know. I know Matt D interviewed him for his website, I'd be curious as to his opinion on Williams.

Stay.Classy.An…

March 24th, 2017 at 1:25 PM ^

that stops that plan. I mean, he had decent D1 offers, I guess I can't understand why a player would go D2 that was offerred full rides at the D1 level. Unless he couldn't qualify at that level? But his offers were from Northern Kentucky and UWM (Wisconsin-Milwaukee), so I can't imagine the academics were anywhere near UMs. Maybe Beilein gets a random message from someone that he used to coach and we bring him in like Duncan. LOL.

Matt EM

March 24th, 2017 at 2:07 PM ^

while I think he's a nice player with good size at a legit 6'4-6'5, I don't think he's high major material. He's one of the best midrange shooters off the bounce in the state, but unfortunately his range doesn't extend out to 3 consistently at this point. His handle isn't horrible, but not good enough to create separation at the high major level. He's below average in terms of lateral movement and straight line speed, with above average verticality.

I think we're probably dealing with a high upside (based on size for a guard) low-major/mid-majory player rather than Michigan material.

Stay.Classy.An…

March 24th, 2017 at 4:30 PM ^

The difference between him and Duncan is about two inches and a much better 3 point shot? Not trying to dog Duncan but it's not like he's overly athletic. I understand what you're saying and I haven't seen Williams play in a while. Williams just strikes me as a kid that has untapped potential and with some S & C and Beilein working with his shot, it could be a diamond in the rough pick up. Might also help us sign his teammate Weems.

Matt EM

March 24th, 2017 at 7:14 PM ^

Obviously, I'm trying to be diplomatic with Williams, but the difference is likely low 40s (Duncan) to low/mid teens (Williams) in terms of 3 point percentage. Williams is a scoring guard as opposed to a PG, just don't know that he can be effective with that poor a shot, while not being athletic enough to create separation off the dribble.

somewittyname

March 24th, 2017 at 1:00 PM ^

I think you're greatly overestimating the number wide open 3s. And the "half-ass" press, which is neither new nor half-assed and is typically referred to as a 3/4 court press proved pretty effective because it did throw Michigan's rhythm off. How many times did we not get into our offense until about 10 on the shot clock? That's the whole point of a 3/4 court press.

Oregon, for the most part, also took away the easy Wagner/Wilson off-the-dribble drives with their small line up. Bell won his battles when Wilson was hitting 3s. I think Oregon deserves credit for leading to the, "it just feels off" vibe. Sure we can play better offensively, but  how many easy shots did Oregon miss too?

It was a 50/50 match up and we just got the wrong side of the coin.

In reply to by somewittyname

funkywolve

March 24th, 2017 at 1:05 PM ^

and am surprised that in general more teams don't do a soft press on a regular basis.  You make the opponent use 6, 7, 8 seconds just to get the ball over half court and they have very little time to run their offense before they have to set up an iso or pick and roll to try and get a shot off before the shot clock hits 0.

ijohnb

March 24th, 2017 at 1:21 PM ^

was a chess match.  Oregon wanted to run.  Beilein began the game with intentions of exploiting the size mismatch.  The press encouraged Michigan to run when they broke it, but doing so also nuetralized Michigans's height advantage in the half court and encouraged a back and forth affair which Beilein really did not want.  Michigan never decided what the hell it wanted to do.  Remember when Walton was "pump faking" nobody on an open three in the second half and everybody collectively yelled "shoot it" before he dribbled it off his leg?  Oregon had our offense legitimately confused.

Dana Altman is not particularly known as anybody's John Wooden but he put our offense in a trick box last night.  I thought he coached a good game.

In reply to by ijohnb

jmblue

March 24th, 2017 at 4:18 PM ^

Altman's a pretty highly regarded coach, actually.  He built the Creighton program and has been very successful at Oregon.

In reply to by somewittyname

TrueBlue2003

March 24th, 2017 at 1:38 PM ^

because I think Brian's correct here.  The vast majority of our threes were wide open/good shots.  I had the exact same vioce in my head repeatedly saying "shoot that."  I even think we passed up too many open threes for tougher shots later in the shot clock just because it's in our DNA to run long sets.

Oregon definitely had something to do with our offense being "off" with the different looks but it absolutely seemed like their strategy was "ok, here's a wide open three, we don't want to play defense against your offense for 30 seconds so let's just hope you miss and we can get out in transition."

somewittyname

March 24th, 2017 at 2:05 PM ^

I don't consider a pull up 3 in transition by Rahk on an off shooting night as a good look or Wagner continuing to shoot when it was clear he was way off. Irvin, Walton, and Robinson hit their fair share but for the most part they were reasonably guarded. The only Oregon blunders I saw leading to wide open 3s were in the first half for Wilson. I'd say our 3 pt %, which was neither terrible nor great, reflected the quality of the opportunities.

Typically, you will find that when Michigan shoots an abnormal amount of 3s they are bombing some team out of the gym, or they are struggling to get easy 2s. The latter was true last night. You take what the defense gives you, but they didn't give us much.

His Dudeness

March 24th, 2017 at 1:03 PM ^

The officiating wasn't bad in this game.

The replays have been weird the entire tourney. A bad foul would happen and they'd either replay a basket from earlier or just not show anything. It has been really frustrating.

I can't really complain because i dont have cable and the only games I can see (without lagging computer connections) are on CBS, but the replays were just so ... off.

That game was the worst I've seen Michigan as a team play in over a month. Just sucks we dropped it at a sweet sixteen game. And we still could have won. Fun season which we overachieved so it's hard to be too mad. I am dealing with it better than I thought I would. 

 

jpwarner

March 24th, 2017 at 1:10 PM ^

Love Coach B, but I think he got outcoached in this one.  The minutes Wilson sat really ended up costing us and he finished the game with just two fouls.  This was a game where Duncan was clearly overmatched on the defensive end and yet he played 28 minutes, more than Wilson's 27. 

Also I also would've used a timeout on that final possession.  The shot Walton got ended up being fine, but I think he could've used a quick breather beforehand.  

AlwaysBlue

March 24th, 2017 at 1:26 PM ^

as well argue that it wasn't fatigue that cost DJ the bunny or block out. I really can't fault him for sitting Wilson. Oregon would have targeted him.

Beilein talked about the timeout. He was saving it for the anticipated Oregon foul. I think it was a smart call. Oregon would have just fouled on the inbound, taking more off the clock. Walton got a great look, in rythym.

J.

March 24th, 2017 at 1:34 PM ^

Beilein didn't get outcoached, and there's more depth to the bench strategy than you're giving him credit for.

If Wilson is in the game, how many Oregon possessions consist of "drive at Wilson, then shoot or kick?"  The answer is "most of them."  He would have been super-tentative on D, because if he picks up a third foul, not only is he sitting the rest of the half, but he's handcuffed in the second.

Michigan trailed by 2 at halftime, and ceded less than a point per possession.  (The second half played at a much, much slower pace -- 27 posessions vs. 37).  Yes, the last couple of minutes of the first half were off defensively, but it wasn't the difference in the game.

Michigan held Oregon to its 7th-least-efficient offensive output of the year.  This game was not lost on defense, and it wasn't lost on coaching.  The two teams were evenly matched, and Michigan missed one more halfway-down shot than Oregon. Full stop.

UMinSF

March 24th, 2017 at 3:13 PM ^

The refs were calling things very tight in the first half, and Oregon is good, aggressive and well-coached enough to take it to a guy in foul trouble. If Wilson got a third foul in the first half, it would have been disastrous for Michigan.  

As things played out, it was basically an even game at half, and Wilson was fresh and unencumbered with major foul trouble.

Your second point is just wrong. As noted earlier, Oregon ended the game with 2 fouls to give! Oregon screwed up by even allowing Michigan to get a shot off.

Another poster mentioned that Oregon's coach tried to get his guys to foul, and they didn't pay attention. He didn't have any timeouts left.

If Michigan called timeout, of course the first thing Altman would have emphasized to his guys is FOUL. 

We were fortunate to get a great look from our best player. Sadly, it didn't go in.

End-game coaching: Beilein > Altman. 

jmblue

March 24th, 2017 at 3:24 PM ^

Timeouts are a double-edged sword.  You give the defense a chance to set up, too.  In Oregon's case, I'm not sure their team (or at least the guy guarding Walton) was aware that they had two more fouls to give, as Walton was able to clear space for his shot quite easily.   If a timeout had been called, I've got to believe Altman would have been pounding home the need to keep fouling.  

 

Hugh Jass

March 24th, 2017 at 1:17 PM ^

I do not know what is happening with Ibi Watson.  Brian did not list him above on the depth chart.  Is he transferring...is there a storyline that I missed?  he is a 6'5" guy.  I know he did not play this year - but sitting behind Irvin and Robinson etc can make that happen.

TrueBlue2003

March 24th, 2017 at 1:43 PM ^

but I thought the same thing. Hopefully he can be a useful scoring guard next year.  We certainly will need another guard to rotate with X and MAAR.  Will have to be either Watson, a freshman or a transfer.

On the bright side, that and getting useful backup minutes out of Teske or Davis seems to be the biggest issues going into next year if DJ and Mo return.

bronxblue

March 24th, 2017 at 1:25 PM ^

The game sort of felt off because it had been, what, 5 games since they last played?  It seemed like both teams never really got into grooves, and while defense played a part in that, it also seemed like both took a half to get going.

It was a good year.  It ended better than I expected.  I do think they should try for a transfer, especially if that player can fill an Irvin role on the defensive end.  Beilein's offenses rarely struggle scoring, and so taking a shot on a guy with 37% usage rate might not be a net positive even though I assume he'd be fine moving the ball around more.  

And finally, I don't think Michigan or Oregon would stand a chance against Kansas, one of the worst-coached dominant teams I've seen this year.  So yeah, it would have been nice to make an Elite 8, but barring a crazy collapse by Kansas Saturday was going to be the end of the road anyway.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

March 24th, 2017 at 1:31 PM ^

This game is a weird combination of crushing disappointment and sanguine acceptance.  I really thought we'd win it and then lose the Elite 8 game.  Coming so close to winning it and not getting there really sucks.  But despite 2013 I couldn't see getting past Kansas, nor could I see beating Purdue after doing it twice - they'd be out for blood big-time.

However, D.J. Wilson does need to spend the summer practicing layups, putbacks, and dunks, while getting whacked with pugil sticks.

TrueBlue2003

March 24th, 2017 at 1:53 PM ^

were bizzarre here.  I kept trying to figure out how we could shoot 52 percent from two and 36 percent from three - both pretty good percentages - and 100 percent from FT while only turning it over a solid 8 times and still only score 1.03 ppp.  And there it was: just 2 OREBs.  Hard to argue with the desire to get back on D but shocking a couple more balls didn't bounce our way by accident.

And their periperals look good to us.  Held them to only 44 percent from two.  They shot well from three but can't do much about that, especially with Dorsey taking 23 footers.  Did well to hold them to 17 taken while forcing 41 twos shot at the aforementioned bad percentage.  But just 5 TOs from them allowed them to eek out 1.05 ppp for the win.  The two late OREBs given up hurt, but overall we did a really good job on the defensive glass only allowing 17 percent of misses to be rebounded.

Weird game.