I was looking at the seeding, and can see that Michigan should be no lower than 7 in the BT tourney. I really am afraid of no one in the Big 10, but this gives us the potential to win 3 games: the Thursday game against No. 10, Friday game against 2, Saturday game against 3. I can't see us beating Little Brother. Nonetheless, we can easily win 3 in the Tourney, leading to a higher seeding and easier path in the NCAA's. I believe we can beat Purdue, Illinois, and Wisconsin, especially on a neutral court with competent officiating. Thoughts?
Win Predictions in Tourney
What makes you think officiating would be any more competent than usual?
homerism from officials would turn to neutralism, i guess that would be the hope anyways.
Usually tournaments and post-season play are rewards for the best officials. Is this different in Big Ten Basketball?
Also, there are at least three kinds of "bad" officiating. There is that which plays to any one team's strengths (or weaknesses.) An example would be lightly officiated games that allow both teams to foul a lot (let 'em play.) This is generally perceived as bad for UofM, because of our lack of size, but it is fair to all teams, if done consistently. The second kind is that which favors the home team, or the favored team. The third kind of bad officiating is inconsistent, regularly missing calls, but not always, with no rhyme or reason. This is the kind that has been so disastrous for the hockey team.
Regardless, with this being the tournament, it would make sense for the "best" officials to officiate the most games, particularly the Sat. games and the Sunday final game.
It seems like bad refs (which the Big 10 has) are generally prone to call games in the home team's favor (Michigan has benefited from this, too). With no home team, I'd tend to think that the refs would tend more towards neutrality (though if one team travels exceptionally well, I guess they could be swayed).
So we'll be the 6 or 7 seed per http://mgoblog.com/diaries/big-ten-seeding-scenarios-after-saturdays-games
This puts us playing against Iowa or Indiana, with a second round match up versus Illinois or Purdue. The semi final would likely be against Illinois or Purdue as well.
So, we've beaten Iowa and Indiana, and I think we should beat them again, hopefully. Curse of Tommy not withstanding.
And of course we've beaten Purdue and Illinois, so there's definitely a chance we could end up in the final, but we would have to play consistently. Which, this team? I doubt it.
Realistically, I see us winning the Thursday game and then losing on Friday. Not that Purdue or Illinois are unbeatable (we beat both teams once in the regular season), but the quick turnaround against a rested opponent will probably catch up to us. Teams tend to shoot increasingly poorly as the tourney goes on due to tired legs. That could be a problem for a team like us that is very reliant on the three.
There is a very big difference between Iowa and Indiana. Iowa can beat us, and did a week ago, with a very short-handed team.
This season has been quite up-and-down, and if things continue as such, we lose to Iowa again and are back on the bubble.
I think Indiana's chances of beating Michigan are much, much less than Iowa's. Hope we get the 6th seed.