Random question I've been asking everyone since Saturday. Who wins more games the rest of the year, Michigan or Michigan State. Given that State is now start their free fall and the countdown clock is reset to 364 days, I say Michigan gets 3 wins (4,please) and MSU ends up with 1. Thoughts?
Who wins more games?
I think Michigan beats Purdue, loses to Minnesota, 60/40 against NW in AA, loses to OSU.
I think MSU is 60/40 with Wisconsin in EL, wins against Purdue, loses to PSU.
That is kind of stacked question considering they only have 3 games and we have 4. Also, keep in mind that Wisconsin is now 4-4(1-4). MSU should be able to win this game and I doubt they could pull it off, but they will have plenty of motivation to beat PSU when they are 9-2 and after they figure out that beating Michigan didn't prove that they are a real team.
In case you didn't notice, John L. Smith isn't coaching at MSU anymore. Don't assume the "free fall" is going to happen - if it was, given the number of disastrous plays that occurred on Saturday, MSU would have found a way to lose.
MSU probably will pick up two wins (neither Wisconsin nor Purdue should be able to beat them in East Lansing, although any MSU fan who tells you that we've got anything more than a slim "any given Saturday" chance in Happy Valley is crazy) to finish at 9-3. Michigan could pull off two of the next three (although your finisher is at least as unlikely as ours) with a little luck, but I think you get one (most likely either Minnesota, whose record is seriously inflated by a bunch of garbage games, or Northwestern, who at least has to come to the Big House; Purdue tends to win the games they should).
I agree. SOS (same old Sparty) would have lost on Saturday, given how close most of the game was. You've got to give them credit, they hung in there and finished in the 4th quarter which they haven't been able to do in a long time. I assume they will go into Happy Valley with a shot at the Big Ten (11) title.
Michigan, on the other hand, will be lucky to win another game. I mean, come on, take off the maize glasses, this team is just not good.
but we've had a lead in every game since Notre Dame, usually in the second half. There is hope that we can win the next three, because Purdue isn't good either and Northwestern and Minnesota are overrated. Of course, we lost to Toledo, which is the weakest team on our schedule all year so, shit, we could easily lose the rest.
OSU has to lose for MSU to have a shot at the Big Ten Title. If OSU and MSU win out and PSU only loses to MSU, then you have 3 one-loss teams in the Big Ten. Then they look at who beat who. PSU beat OSU who beat MSU who beat PSU. Then they look at overall win/loss in which PSU has 11-1 and OSU and MSU have 10-2.
That said, there is a chance that OSU loses to Illinois, but I think they give Illinois a huge beatdown for last year.
The tiebreaker after head-to-head is (I kid you not) the number of 1-AA games your team played. OSU (Youngstown State), PSU (Coastal Carolina), and Minnesota (Montana State) all played one; MSU did not. It's extremely unlikely, given that the finale is in Happy Valley (wouldn't even be likely if it was at home, for that matter), but if MSU wins out, they're going to Pasadena.
It's not quite as simple as MSU winning out, since another Penn St. loss would bring the H2H vs. OSU back to the top. But yes, if that is PSU's only loss, or OSU loses another, MSU goes to the Rose Bowl if they win out.
The idea of PSU losing two seems so far-fetched that I didn't even think of that possibility.
FWIW the last Penn St. team to start 9-0 (1999) finished the regular season 9-3 and in the Alamo Bowl. Of course, that year they finished with a decent Minnesota team followed by Top 10 Michigan and Michigan St. They don't quite have murderer's row this year, but the game @ Iowa isn't a gimme (any more than that Minnesota game was, at least).
Thanks for the info. I had never heard of that, probably because it has never been an issue, at least as long as I can remember. I specifically looked up the tiebreaker rules because I couldn't remember the order, but I skimmed over it until I got to the 3 way tie rules.
Two or three years ago, they added the "1-AA games = FAIL" criterion. Until then, it used to be head-to-head, non-conference record, then most recent representative is out.
any of this "Northwestern and Minnesota are overrated" talk is just plain absurd. Michigan is a very bad football team right now, fully capable of finishing at 2-10. None of these next 3 opponents are anything close to a guaranteed end to our skid. sure, the games are certainly winnable, but I wouldn't bet your house on them.
that said, I will say this... if, and this is an otherworldly if, we can win these next few games and head into Columbus at 5-6 with some momentum, needing 1 more win for bowl eligibility, wouldn't it be something to pull off an upset @ The Shoe?
more likely, we'll get one more win in these last 4 games and call it a year and get busy recruiting and moving forward to '09. Northwestern, minus Bacher & Sutton, seems to be the most likely to go our way.
You haven't watched Purdue, have you? They're as bad as we are, but don't have the excuse of no experience. Painter has been pretty bad. Their offense is bad. Purdue's defense is half-decent though, so it's probably going to be a pretty ugly game.
Northwestern minus Bacher and Sutton will be bad though. Bigger loss is Bacher -- their backup is bad. His play Saturday was positively Aaron Brooks-esque, trying to throw it away but instead throwing it 20 yards backwards.
I consider no game a win for Michigan at this point. It would shock me if they won three games the rest of the way.
No game left is a "gimme" for the Wolverines... though Northwestern potentially lost their excellent RB this weekend.
MSU hasn't been the same old Spartans since the John L days... they rebounded from our comeback win last year to beat the remaining two teams on their schedule and make it to a mid-level bowl. Sadly, I don't see a "free fall" in their future.
Actually, we were the end of their free fall last year if I remember correctly. They lost 5 of 6 in the middle of the year. I think blowing the game actually ended up being a rallying point for them - they were pissed. They also never had the blowout loss characteristic of the Sparty Swoon -- I think all the games they lost in that stretch were reasonably close.