The week-to-week minutiae of recruiting can sometimes obscure the larger picture.From time to time this here blog likes to provide a 1,000 foot view so people can have context going forward. Details below are designed to be sparse.
Michigan is about halfway to a full recruiting class, and will probably sign somewhere between 22 and 25. The details:
- Eleven players see their eligibility expire.
- Michigan entered the year with three unused slots.
- Transfers from Wermers, Threet, and Clemons minus the transfer-type action of Kelvin Grady brings Michigan up to 16 slots.
- There are two players on the team—David Cone and Bryan Wright—highly unlikely to get a fifth year.
- Dann O'Neill's departure is not yet official but is highly likely.
So without further attrition Michigan has about 19 slots—depending on the statuses of Sheridan, Morales, and the younger Grady—to provide, but there will be further attrition. There always is.
Needs: Almost as severe as they were last year. Michigan has two realistic scholarship options and would like at least two this year with possibly a third guy who will "get a shot" before getting moved to somewhere else.
Commitments: MI QB Devin Gardner (right), Michigan's top target and a guy who's around the Scout top 50 and Lemming top 10, has hopped aboard.
Realistic Future Options: There's not much green left on the recruiting board here: just SC QB Cornelius Jones, LA QB Munchie Legaux, and FL QB Stephen Morris. Morris doesn't have an offer, and Legaux has gone from declaring Michigan a provisional leader to only mentioning M intermittently—that smilin' green guy is probably outdated. So you've got Jones, which I guess would be okay.
Level of PANIC: 1/5. Gardner was clearly the #1 priority of the coaching staff and is in the boat; the lack of attractive second options is a minor concern.
Needs: They took three last year but lose three this offseason and had two transfers. In 2010 they'll have a junior Mike Shaw and four underclassmen (Smith, Toussaint, Jones, and Cox). That's is pretty light for a team that would like to run the ball lots, especially since Jones might be pirated away by the receiving corps and Toussaint remains a question-mark to qualify.
Commitments: Michigan's picked up two generic three-star sorts from Texas in Tony Drake and Stephen Hopkins, with Drake a zippy scatback sort and Hopkins a sort of Brandon Minor 2.0.
Realistic Future Options: Tate Forcier is still exhorting Michigan fans to keep hope for the pendulum that is CA RB Brennan Clay alive—he committed to Oklahoma over the weekend—but even if he's still in play he's declared Oklahoma a strong leader and will be difficult to pry away.
That leaves MI RB Austin White as Michigan's top remaining target, surprisingly. White has two brothers at State but the vibe on him has been strongly Michigan for the last month or two. While White's not the universal blue-chip Clay is he does have an LSU offer and a couple of four-star rankings.
There are also a dozen other kids with offers out there, with the top names to watch FL RB Cassius McDowell, a teammate of Michigan's Deerfield Beach duo on both the football team and the Florida state championship 4x100m, and CA RB Dietrich Riley, a hotly-pursued athlete who could play on either side of the ball.
Level of PANIC: 2/5. If Rodriguez gets a pass anywhere for recruiting random guys it's running backs, but Michigan's persistent inability to land a blue-chip guy despite Rodriguez's pedigree is slightly annoying. White's sort of close to that level, though, and if they bring him in that's a solid class.
Needs: Whatever they were they've been met.
Commitments: Michigan picked up early-early commits from FL WR Ricardo Miller and MI WR Jeremy Jackson, then followed that up with Ohioans Jerald Robinson and DJ Williamson, and the entire state of North Dakota.
Miller is a four-star to everyone but the other guys are in the generic three-star range, with Robinson the closest to four-star status. Jackson did claim offers from Texas and Florida, FWIW, and Williamson just won the state championship in the 100 meter dash.
Realistic Future Options: Unsurprisingly, there aren't many. IL WR Kyle Prater showed at the BBQ and a recent combine event that Gardner also attended; the two have hit it off and Prater's had some recent positive mentions of M. He's also declared a top three of USC, Oklahoma, and Illinois, though, so keep your hopes in check.
Other than that the only guy reporting an offer who seems interested is PA WR Andrew Carswell, who may or may not be able to commit if he so desires.
Level of PANIC: 2/5. I'd rather Michigan had picked up some higher-rated kids with better offers. IIRC, neither Robinson or Williamson had any other offers period, let alone something comparable to the Michigan offer, and neither is getting the sort of guru accolades that might offset that. Williamson is something of a mystery man, though: Rivals just got his film.
Needs: I have no idea, really. Is Teric Jones a slot receiver? What about Tony Drake? Is Kelvin Grady a realistic option? Will Jeremy Gallon qualify? Does Je'Ron Stokes end up playing inside? If the answers are all "yes," then the need here is minimal. If they're all "no," the need here is considerable.
Commitments: LA WR Drew Dileo committed to Michigan over an array of schools that are really good at school a few weeks ago.
Realistic Future Options: Again, it's not a surprise that there aren't a whole lot of options on the board here. FL WR OJ Ross has an offer and has been very impressive this spring at a variety of combines and his high school's spring game; he's about the only guy on the radar here.
Level of PANIC: 3/5. Dileo seems like one of those guys you wait on. Just my e-pinion.
Needs: Rodriguez never used tight ends at West Virginia unless it was Owen Schmitt lining up somewhere funny, but has apparently cottoned onto the idea at Michigan once he talked with good friend Bob Stoops and got a view of Kevin Koger's talents, so they're recruiting a few guys.
Realistic Future Options: Cincinnati commitment Alex Smith took a visit for the BBQ and now features in articles where he talks about a variety of trips he'll take. That commit is soft, then. He's the only guy on the board.
Level of PANIC: 0/5. If they find a guy they like here, fine. If they don't, fine.
Needs: Suddenly a little more needy with the departures of Kurt Wermers and (again, very probably) Dann O'Neill. Michigan is now recruiting to a class of four redshirt freshmen backed by a class of three true freshmen and should be taking another three or four players.
Commitments: OH interior lineman Christian Pace committed about a week ago.
Realistic Future Options: There is, of course, MN OL Seantrel Henderson, the nation's top recruit and a guy Michigan is in a tentative top two for along with Minnesota. He's not going to decide until February, though, so any lead here is tenuous. Much more likely to hew to his recent proclamations of a Michigan lead is FL OL Torrian Wilson, who's still got Michigan on top and would like to decide within a month.
Besides those two Michigan is in on a couple of Ohioans, Skyler Schofner and Andrew Donnall, plus some other guys. They'll probably have to find another half-dozen guys to offer to get up to four.
Level of PANIC: 1/5. Though the recruiting board has dwindled a bit, offensive line is a spot at which you get a lot of late-developing talents and the recruiting ratings aren't that accurate anyway. Pace is a good pickup to start.
Yeah, Michigan has expended a lot of scholarship slots on guys you'd like to see them wait on as Plan B type recruits to be reeled in after you are told to talk to the hand by big-time guys. By the end of the year only Gardner, Miller, and maybe one other committed player (Pace or Robinson, probably) are likely to pick up four stars, which is well below average.
The counter-argument to this basically goes "Pat White and Steve Slaton," and I hear you, but even Rodriguez's first full class at Michigan—which was loaded with four-star recruits—puts the lie to the idea it's not preferable to lock down guys who many people think will be good players instead of just you. At the halfway point it's looking like this will be class that ranks lower than normal.
That's not too alarming. Teams that have ugly years just about always experience a significant dropoff the year after, and Michigan is going through its own version. This is more likely to be a result of 3-9 than anything else, and 3-9 isn't an event that will repeat, knock on wood.