I read consistent comments from posters here, most recently regarding the Stuart Mandel article thread, that express a gamut running from optimism all the way through outright certainty that the offense will be better next year with Tate running it. This has two large assumptions in it, first that Forcier will win the starting job, and second that he will be pretty good as a freshman. Where does this come from? As far as I can tell, Forcier is an excellent High School QB with a 4 star rating (one of many, most of whom will redshirt or not start), but he is not a 5 star, nor is he rated nearly as highly as Henne was entering his freshman year. And we see almost all freshman struggle, even those rated far higher that Tate is. I am far from certain that he will even win the starting position from Threet, much less be a productive starter. Of course, I'm praying he does both, but I seem to be in a minority.
Where does the Forcier optimism come from?
I think people are more optimistic about the fact that we're returning almost everybody on offense. Threet will have another year in the system, Minor seems to have cured his fumblitis, our WRs won't have a variety of injuries, and our OL will have another year to gel, plus the availability of the 6 redshirted freshmen.
Tate Forcier will remain an unknown until summer camp.
to be honest, i feel the same way. you put it into better words than i could have though.
For me there's a lot to be excited about.
-He fits our offense
-He has worked with one of the best QB coaches since he was a kid
-His older brothers are all FBS quarterbacks
-He is rated one of the most accurate quarterbacks in this class
-He's pretty good with his decision making, which to me will help with the read plays
-Several players and coaches have told me that his arm reminds them of Chad Henne at the same age
-He said in an interview recently, that he's only going to focus on school and football, and will try to learn the offense as fast as possible
-He already works out more than normal high school kids
The upside on him is great. He's a good kid that wants to learn, and that's what we need right now. Someone with the ability to make plays, and the want to be coached. Everyone jokes about Nick Sheridan and Steven Threet on here, but Nick Sheridan, I've been told, does not take anything the coaches tell him to heart, and Steven Threet just isn't a star. So having Tate for the future is a good start for where we want to be.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but, I thought that one of the few knocks against Forcier ws that he might not have a ton of upside and that his ceiling might not be as high as other dual threat QBs that we have recruited in this class such as Beaver, Boyd, Newsome and Eugene Smith?
...I know the question is for Tom. But, let's say as a 6 foot QB in the spread that Forcier's upside is Kyle Orton or Drew Brees-style production.
Would you take that?
they didn't win mythical national championships... so no. [/sarcasm]
No. That would blow. (Sarcasm)
I think he's one of the most ready to step in. Newsome, as has been stated everywhere, is a project and could develop into a good QB, but he has some work. Beaver, to be honest, I never thought he was that great. I liked having him because he's good with his feet. I hear that Tajh Boyd has a really good arm, but he's not being recruited by us.
For RIGHT NOW, I think Tate is a great option. He can come in, work his butt off, learn the offense and help us improve. Next year there are some really good QB's coming out, and we have a good shot at a lot of them early on. So, if we pick one up next year that happens to be a monster then good. For right now, Tate is who we need to help transition the offense. IMO, of course.
Hopefully, TF is more in tune with RR's offense. I believe TF is more the type of QB RR is looking for. I've been pretty impressed in what TF says as far as his work ethic and reason for enrolling early. Hopefully that will catch him up to speed.
..but geez, if you aren't optimistic about a team going from year 1 to 2 in the Rich Rod system, with all returning offensive starters, and a quarterback who has run the identical offense for the past 6 years, who will be on campus in 10 days (be safe on that snowboarding trip Tate), with fantastic recruits coming in, many redshirt O-linemen supporting the line, Junior Hemingway and Carlos Brown healthy, Jeremy Gallon tearing up the AA game, and Rich Rod's history of turning it around in year 2....
...what's the point of supporting the team if you're not optimistic things will be better than 3-9, given all the bad karma and breaks that happened this year? They won't all happen again - the stars aligned for the first time in 33 years in Ann Arbor against the FB team. Next year will be good.
but the point was I have been reading many posters putting most of their faith in having a "real" QB who can run the spread as a major component of that improvement. As I said, that seems unrealistic to me, given the rationale I expressed. That is not the same as saying that the offense won't improve, and I think we'll be in the 6-6 to 8-4 neighborhood.
....will get this team to 7-5 or better. I think we've got a pretty good chance of that. That adds to the optimism.
Tate has not run an 'identical offense' for 6 years. But I am very optimistic nonetheless.
...when I say that everything broke wrong for Michigan this year.
The even years give Michigan 7 home games. The odd years normally have 8 home games. This year Michigan played an undefeated Utah team with a senior QB in the first game with RR. They played at ND in a rainstorm. They played Little Brother who had both a senior QB and All-America RB. They played at Penn State and Ohio State.
Next year, Michigan will get Penn State, ND and Ohio State at home, which will help balance the games. Playing at Little Brother is always a fun one. At Iowa, Illinois and at Wisconsin are tough but not out of reach. Indiana, Purdue and the FCS team are cannon fodder. And, finally, we get EMU in year one of the Ron English experiment. The schedule is better next year for a much more experienced and talented team which was 1 or 2 plays a game away from winning 7-8 games this year.
were you describing tate or the EMU, b/c i couldn't tell.
honestly, the biggest thing for me is the 15 games of starting experience on the entire offense going into utah this past year.
going into (whoever we start with) in 09, we'll have like 12games*10players==120 games of starting experience.
Most people believe Forcer would be an improvement over the qb play this year. But Threet should be better and maybe even a lot better next year. Whoever starts will be better than what we had. I think it should be taken into account that just by being a better runner at qb Forcer should make a big difference in the running game. If the backside DE has to stay home to contain the qb the read option becomes a lot harder to defend. This isn't something it takes 2 or 3 years to learn. Qb won't be great, just better than what we had. I am skeptical that translates to 8 wins. I am hoping for 7.
If Forcier is good enough to beat out a guy (Threet) who is older and has a year of experience, then he's got to be pretty good. And if he does start, it's nice to know that we'll have an experienced backup in case of injury.
Admitted blind faith and naivety. I don't expect him to be a major improvement next year, but I'm just glad it adds depth over the next 2 years. It's not like he could be that much worse than the combination last year.
He's either going to add depth and not be any worse than death, or he will be some sort of aberration. I'm guessing the former.
Summary: He's a win-win.
having the right type of QB in the right offense. If Chad Henne was going to be running this offense coming out of high school, I'd be very nervous. I watched Chad play alot of high school games and let me tell you He would not have looked good running the spread offense. This is to say, Chad had alot of talent in high school but not for Coach Rod's offense.
Michigan recruited one of the best arms in country when we got Ryan Mallet. Mallet's departure may have been for several reasons but the biggest was He couldn't run this offense.
Optimism comes with the player named Tate Forcier and His ability the run the type of offense that made Tate the player that He is today. While I do agree with you, that the QB job is still Threet's to loose and Steven will be much better than He played last year-the writing on the wall comes with Forcier. My only question will be how long will Coach Rod wait to get Tate into a game-it's like running 2-3yr. old horses before their ready and they break down-Having said that, TomVH stated that Tate has been coached since an early age-His brothers and father also played a huge part getting Tate ready for the show. So while I understand your reservations and agree that Threet is still the man, Tate was born and raised to run this offense-hence-optimism.
Shit, we going undefeated!
Let me put it this way. If Forcier's performance (next year) could best be described as average, then it would be a huge improvement over last year. So if your excited about an average QB playing for Michigan next year, (like I am) imagine how exciting it would be if Forcier exceeds expectations.
If you look at last year, did we really run the read option? When Threet was in there, did anyone really think he was going to keep the ball and take off? I think with Tate, he can run, so he'll be able to keep the ball on more plays. The read plays that were called last year were basically just normal rushing plays. The defense didn't think that Threet was going to keep it, and didn't think he was a threat, so they didn't need to defend against it. Having that extra player that the defense needs to worry about is what makes the read option.