More like Mad Thatta [via 11W]

For over a decade, Ohio State basketball was one of the most consistently successful programs in all of college basketball. Thad Matta has accomplished everything short of a national title during his tenure as the coach of the Buckeyes: his third OSU team, powered by freshmen phenoms Greg Oden and Mike Conley, made it to the national championship game; his Jared Sullinger-led 2011-12 team reached another Final Four; he’s captured five regular season Big Ten titles and four Big Ten Tournament titles; he’s won over 300 games in Columbus; he’s coached a national player of the year (h8 u, Evan Turner); he’s sent plenty of players to the NBA.

Few programs wouldn’t trade for Ohio State’s level of success since Matta took the job over before the 2004-05 season. He missed the NCAA Tournament that season because of self-imposed sanctions leveled as punishment for the transgressions of his predecessor, but he made it to the tournament in nine of the next ten seasons, winning the NIT the only time he was snubbed. Of the schools in the Big Ten, only Michigan State and Wisconsin (who both were helmed by legendary coaches who are/were the best in program history) can lay claim to a comparable level of success during that span.

Matta’s excellence and his consistency make Ohio State’s recent plunge into mediocrity all the more perplexing. JaQuan Lyle was recently arrested for getting drunk and punching a cop car – and OSU said that he’d quit the team over a month before. Given how the past few seasons have gone in Columbus, such an unceremonious departure didn’t even register as that much of a surprise. Sure, the manner in which Lyle’s Ohio State career ended was a bit unusual, but it was just the latest in a series of signals that the program is in steep decline.

In his first eleven seasons in Columbus, Matta finished no worse than 34th nationally according to Kenpom’s algorithm; in 2015-16, the Buckeyes were 76th, and last season, they were 73rd. (Somehow Michigan was a combined 0-2 against those teams, games that were debatably the worst losses Michigan suffered in each of those two seasons). Matta fielded his worst Ohio State team last season: it was the first time he finished with fewer than 20 wins and the first time finished under .500 in Big Ten play – after a Wednesday afternoon Big Ten Tournament loss to lowly Rutgers, they didn’t even make the NIT.

About a month and a half ago, Darius Bazley – a wing from Cincinnati and the #55 prospect in the 2018 class according to the 247 composite – decommitted from Ohio State. Some of his comments in the Columbus Dispatch were wonderfully candid: “Ohio State, they didn’t make the NCAA Tournament this year. They didn’t even make the NIT, which is unfortunate, but I looked into the recruits they have coming into next year, they didn’t look too good for the future. So I felt like when my class came in, yeah, we would’ve been OK, but good enough to make the tournament? I don’t know.”

From 2010 to 2013, Ohio State was a one- or two-seed in the NCAA Tournament and won the Big Ten regular season and Big Ten Tournament three times each over those four seasons. In 2017, an elite in-state prospect noted that they Didn’t Even Make The NIT as he decommitted and arguably the best player on the team randomly quit. What happened?

[Schadenfreude after the JUMP]

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Hmm, maybe Greg Paulus happened [Marc-Gregor Campredon – MGoBlog]

It more or less boils down to crootin. Matta’s 2006 class – which had three five stars (Oden, Conley, and Daequan Cook) as well as high four star David Lighty – was his best-ever in Columbus, and signaled Ohio State’s arrival as a national power. He kept it up for several years, typically acquiring better high school prospects than anyone else in the Big Ten. That level of talent simply isn’t there anymore. There are a lot of reasons, big and small, why Ohio State basketball fell off so dramatically, but two stand out in particular: ever since the standout 2010 class (which had Sullinger, Deshaun Thomas, and Aaron Craft), OSU’s recruiting outcomes have been mostly disappointing at best, and the 2015 class in particular – ranked 5th nationally in the Composite – was an utter disaster.

From 2011-2017, Matta has signed plenty of Top 100 prospects, but aside from D’Angelo Russell (a five-star who was too good and left after just one season in Columbus), the results were not great. The ten best recruits over that span behind Russell:

• #29 (2014) Keita Bates-Diop: Swiss Army Knife wing has been an average starter, lost last season (his junior year) to injury.
• #35 (2011) Shannon Scott: It really wasn’t smart to take a solid defense-first point guard instead of literally Trey Burke.
• #41 (2015) Jaquan Lyle: Inexplicably quit the team after two seasons as the high-usage guy on below-average teams.
• #44 (2011) LaQuinton Ross: Went pro after two seasons as the high-usage guy on above-average teams, now playing in Uruguay.
• #46 (2011) Sam Thompson: Bouncy swingman never developed into much more than a role player who threw down insane dunks.
• #49 (2015) Daniel Giddens: Transferred after one season as an unremarkable backup big man.
• #52 (2011) Amir Williams: Detroit product became widely resented by OSU fans for his “conspicuous brand of sluggish and joyless basketball.”
• #54 (2015) Austin Grandstaff: Played 114 unremarkable minutes before transferring, transferred from his next school before playing there.
• #57 (2014) Jae’Sean Tate: As good as a very undersized power forward who can’t shoot can possibly be.
• #61 (2013) Marc Loving: Shot 46% from three as a sophomore, but very meh otherwise, inefficient as a junior and senior.

Aside from Ross (who got buckets and didn’t do much else) and Tate (who, despite his obvious limitations, is legit) everyone has underachieved. Matta hasn’t discovered any under-the-radar gems either.

Passing on a plucky, undersized point guard from their own backyard (and the childhood best friend of their star player, no less) in the 2011 class was the harbinger of bad recruiting luck for the Buckeyes. Trey Burke eventually became the best player in college basketball; Ohio State’s 2011 class of Ross – Scott – Thompson – Williams was decent but they weren’t exceptional as upperclassmen, even though the class was ranked 6th nationally. It’s hard not to wonder if the 2011-12 team (which made the Final Four and lost by two to Kansas in the semifinal) would have won a title with Burke instead of Scott, even if they did meet Kentucky’s Anthony Davis team.

The 2014 class, also ranked 6th nationally, was better. D’Angelo Russell played at an All-American level in his only season as a Buckeye; OSU finished sixth in the Big Ten in that 2014-15 campaign and was a ten-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Russell was drafted second overall by the Los Angeles Lakers; he’s most notable for snitching on Nick “Swaggy P” Young and now the Lakers, who are likely eyeing Lonzo Ball in the upcoming draft, might try to trade him. He was a sensational addition by Thad Matta, but his impact was fleeting. Also in the 2014 class were Bates-Diop and Tate: both have shown that they can be quality role players on underwhelming teams and not much more.

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The 2015 class was ranked fifth nationally. Jaquan Lyle was the highest-ranked at #41 overall. He was joined by four four-stars: tiny point guard AJ Harris, sharpshooter Austin Grandstaff, playmaking four Mickey Mitchell, and rim-protector Daniel Giddens. Grandstaff left Ohio State after playing a few games; Harris, Giddens, and Mitchell all departed after mediocre freshman seasons (Giddens was the only one to land at a power conference school); Lyle just left the program after two seasons – he was the only member of the class to make much of a positive impact on the floor.

Additionally, Trevor Thompson – a dominant rebounder and pretty good big man who transferred in from Virginia Tech – became eligible at the same time the 2015 class did; Thompson went pro and hired an agent with a year of eligibility remaining. He’s unlikely to be drafted.

Few programs can survive that type of attrition, but Matta’s two following classes – both of which were considerably off the lofty standard he set earlier in his career – provided little in the way of reinforcements. The 2016 class had four players, just one was a four star (Derek Funderburk) – and he redshirted last season, despite OSU’s lack of depth following Bates-Diop’s injury. The 2017 class yielded just two players: Kaleb Wesson, a four star big man who probably needs to shed a lot of weight to be effective, and undersized generic three star point guard Braxton Beverly.

That 2015 class was devastating, and Matta was unable to fill the open scholarships with quality players. It should have been a bedrock class for the program; it was mostly gone after one season and the only good player left after two. It’s still too early to tell with the 2016 class, but nobody stood out in particular as freshmen last season.

Right now Ohio State has just nine scholarship players. Keita Bates-Diop’s recovery from injury will be interesting, as he’s a versatile wing who could possibly fulfill his potential and become an All-Big Ten caliber as a senior after losing a season. It’s likelier that he will struggle with increased offensive responsibility. Jae’Sean Tate is a solid player who would be even better on a good team; he seems close to his ceiling.

Other than those two, the rest of the roster is bleak. The frontcourt: Micah Potter, Derek Funderburk, and Kaleb Wesson. The backcourt: Kam Williams, CJ Jackson, Andre Wesson, and Braxton Beverly. Theoretically Matta could still add a graduate transfer or take a flier on an uncommitted high school senior, but Lyle’s departure came at a tough time. This might be the squad for the Buckeyes.

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There’s a great chance they’ll be a bottom three team in the Big Ten. Penn State has a promising sophomore class with Tony Carr, Lamar Stevens, and Mike Watkins; they’re trending in the opposite direction. Illinois will have a pretty bad roster, but they’ll have a great coach in Brad Underwood – surely an upgrade there. Nebraska is constantly blindsided by transfers and will struggle again. Rutgers is still Rutgers, but Steve Pikiell seems to be doing a good job there and the Scarlet Knights did just beat the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Tournament. If things break the wrong way, they could be the worst team in the league.

Matta finished in the Top 3 in Kenpom’s final rankings thrice at Ohio State. He built national contenders with elite talent – Greg Oden and Jared Sullinger were the best big man recruits in their respective classes and even guys like Deshaun Thomas and William Buford were lower-tier five stars. In the first half of his Ohio State tenure, Matta was one of the best recruiters in the country.

Starting with the 2011 class – which didn’t have Trey Burke, for some reason – it’s been poor. The highly-rated players haven’t panned out. He hasn’t found any players who have greatly exceeded their rankings. That he’s had to settle for second- and third-tier, mostly local prospects lately is as sure of a sign as any that his program is in its death throes. Darius Bazley ain’t coming back. Why would he?

They missed the NCAA Tournament in 2015-16. They missed the NIT in 2016-17. 2017-18 doesn’t look to be any better – in fact, taking last year’s team and subtracting Jaquan Lyle, Trevor Thompson, and Marc Loving (while adding Keita Bates-Diop and freshmen Derek Funderburk and Kaleb Wesson, both Top 100 prospects) gives you something that’s almost definitely worse than the mediocrity of the past two seasons.

The talent that defined Thad Matta’s tenacious mid-tenure teams is long gone, and it isn’t coming back. The current roster is very depleted, and two quality – though unspectacular – seniors can’t drag this team to the tournament by themselves. Basketball season is a long way away, but this Ohio State team should be bad. Let’s enjoy it.