Someone break it down...
What are the scenarios for the Big Ten Tournament now?
Win a game, we're in (20 wins, victories over elite competition, strong SOS, well we all know the resume...)
Lose one and we might have to sweat it, but could get in if we get some help. I'm not as confident as the announcers were that we are a lock, yet.
As far as the seeding for the Big Ten Tournament...what needs to happen for M to get a #6 seed vs. an #8 seed, etc...
Still too many contingencies, as far as the remaining regular season games. I don't want to think about it yet, too frickin pumped!!!
7th seed is the ideal seed for Michigan. They will face Iowa then face PSU if they beat Iowa. Very doable BTT for Michigan if that were to happen.
That assumes that Penn State and MSU win. Purdue is the 2 seed if they beat MSU. Illinois is the 2 if Purdue and PSU both lose.
And if Northwestern beats OSU, I think we go all the way up to the 6 seed presuming Wisconsin beats IU (and no way the Badgers lose to IU in Madison) -- first tiebreaker in a clusterf**k like that is record against each other, and NU beating OSU means we'll be 4-2 against the group while everyone else will be 3-3 if I remember correctly. That puts us against Illinois, Purdue or PSU in the 2nd round (depending on results of the rest of the weekend) after what should theoretically be an easier first round game against Indiana. Since we need to win our first round game I think, I'd rather it be against IU than Iowa.
So.... Go, U Northwestern!
IU at Wisco and NW at OSU.
Let's assume a Wisco win.
If OSU wins, UM will be the 7th seed (by virtue of 2-0 sweep over the Gophers) and play Iowa in a 7/10 game a 2:30pm Thursday. In this case, is that Minny/NW, 8/9 game, at play in game that starts at noon? Compelling stuff.
If NW wins, there is a 4-way tie at 9-9. I think, UM goes to the 6 seed by virtue of their better cumulative head to head record against that bunch. So, they would play IU in the 6/11 game at 5pm Thursday. NW would move to the 7 to play Iowa and Minny/OSU would be the 8/9 game. Could that be a play in game? Hmmm.
We could be playing a 1-17 IU team, in Indy, where a loss could undo all that was done today. What could go wrong?
As long as this team advances out of the first round, there is no way they get denied a bid.
Good call. I think I'd rather face Iowa than play a de facto road game vs. IU. Though I suppose it's possible that IU fans might not show up in large numbers.
You are correct -- if NU beats OSU, and as expected Wisco beats IU, then Northwestern is the 7 seed because they have a win over MSU while Minn and OSU do not. They all would have a 3-3 record against the 4 tied teams.
Isn't 7 seed the only possibility?
Ohio St and Wisconsin will be ahead of us no matter what b/c of head to head, the same reason we'll be ahead of Minn and NW.
7 is great b/c then the 2 will either be Penn St. Purdue or Il, all of which we've beaten.
I would just like to avoid Ohio St and Wisconsin b/c I don't feel like we match up well with them.
When there's a tie between more than two teams, you don't compare head to head records one at a time, but instead compare all the teams' records against each other at the same time.
So if there's a four way tie between Michigan, OSU, NW, and Minnesota,
Michigan went 4-2 against those teams.
OSU would have gone 3-3 (loss to Minnesota, twice to NW)
So Michigan wins the tiebreaker even though they got swept by OSU and ends up seeded 6th.
It really gets crazy if there's a five way tie. I think Michigan does no better than sixth under any scenario.
You can see the tiebreaking system here: http://bigten.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/100606aae.html
First tiebreaker when there are more than 2 teams tied is actually a total head to head among all tied teams. So if Wisconsin wins and NU wins, we'll be 4-2 against OSU, Minn and NW, the teams tied with us, and that's better than any of the other three. That would put us as the 6 seed.
"B. Multiple team tie:
1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season. a. When comparing records against the tied teams, the team with the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).
b. After the top team among the tied teams is determined, the second team is ranked by its record among the original tied teams, not the head-to-head record vs. the remaining team(s).
2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).
3. Won-loss percentage of Division I opponents.
4. Coin toss conducted by Commissioner or designee. "
Well here's to Ohio St. winning. Don't wanna play IU in Indianapolis either.
Iowa is a much better team than IU though. And if Cyrus Tate is back, they could give us some problems.
Iowa/PSU coming down to the wire. Iowa up 6 with 85 seconds to go and Battle going to the line to maybe cut it to 4. A loss could drop PSU all the way to a 6 seed if Wisco and OSU both win.
I calculate a five-way tie (U-M, Minny, NW, OSU, UW) like this:
- Winner and 5 seed is Wisconsin: 4-3 against the group.
- Loser and 9 seed is Ohio State: 3-4 against the group.
The rest are 4-4 against the group.
- Michigan is 6 seed based on 4-0 record against Minny and NW.
- NW is 7 seed based on win over MSU (1-1 against Minny.)
(Someone probably should double-check me though because the chances of me screwing up those head-to-head records are not small.)
We're in fantastic shape tiebreaker wise. We win the four-way tie between us, NW, OSU, and Minny. We can't face any of the other potential 9-9 teams in the tournament. Iowa and Indiana are the only possibilities.
According to the Ken Pom probabilities, we have a 68% chance of facing Iowa and a 32% chance of Indiana. If Wisconsin beats Indiana AND OSU beats Northwestern, we get Iowa. Otherwise we get Indiana. Those are the two favorites by quite a longshot in KenPom's ratings, which is why, even though there's four ways that could go, three of which lead to IU, we still have more than twice the chance of facing Iowa than IU. If you buy what KenPom is selling. Which I do.
I have to laugh at the possibility of OSU dropping all the way down to the #9 seed. The Big Ten this year is nuts.
As I read the rules, they don't break the tie and then reassess among the remaining team. They break the tie but continue to treat them as all tied until the ties are all broken. Thus, in the 5 way with the three of us who are 4-4, they move on to the next tiebreaker, which is record vs. MSU, making Northwestern the 6 and us the 7.
The rules are kinda confusing.
Yeah, I think you're right. It's weird. But I reread it and now I agree with you.